Welcome to the Spike Week NFL Betting Blueprint! This is a weekly article I started last season to document our betting process here. Obviously, we are primarily focused on Best Ball drafts, but I also want to continue to expand our content offerings around sports betting, pick em, DFS, survivor and more to embrace all the aspects of this community that I am actively tackling and participating in.
I am not a professional bettor or handicapper, but I have been able to grind out profits, especially in player prop bets (& ladders!), over the years, and I wanted to challenge myself by bringing it here to the Spike Week gang, where we have a very active and sharp group of folks in our discord crushing betting across all the major sports.
Before we dive into Week Five, here’s a quick recap of the first two weeks (below). Week One got us off to a phenomenal start to 2026, but it’s been a little up and down since. Week Two and Three were down weeks, but there was a bit of a bounce back in Week 4, mostly thanks to the huge stance on Zay Flowers. We’ll try to get some momentum building up in Week 5 because it feels like we are super close to a big one.
(If you’d like to see a recap of our 2025 season, plus the Week One Blueprint, you can find that here.)
*Last Updated: Monday October 5th, 4:43 PM ET*
Week One Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-2 (+0.93 units)
- Props
- 16-7 (+6.8075 units)
- Total
- 19-9 (+7.7375 units)
Week Two Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 5-12 (-5.68 units)
- Total
- 6-14 (-6.88 units)
Week Three Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-1 (+1.85 units)
- Props
- 7-10 (-4.665 units)
- Total
- 10-11 (-2.815 units)
Week Four Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-5 (-3.79 units)
- Props
- 14-16 (+4.2875 units)
- Total
- 16-21 (+0.4975 units)
YTD Stats:
- Sides & Totals
- 9-10 (-2.21 units)
- Props
- 42-45 (+0.75 units)
- Total
- 51-55 (-1.46 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Always make sure to check back before the games each weekend, especially in the prop section, as we will occasionally get some late additions due to injury news, new props, etc. Every time we make an update, we will send out a notification in discord. There are also other incredibly sharp bettors in there posting their favorite plays every week! If you have a premium subscription, but you aren’t currently in the discord, just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord”.
Week 5 Props & Pick Em
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX/PHI | Bhayshul Tuten o57.5 rushing yards | -114 | FD | 2 | Tuten continued his strong performance in Week 4, finishing with 73 yards on 17 carries against the Bengals. He continues to take more of this backfield, and the Eagles are a better matchup than it may seem at face value. Their offense is is struggling, which should help the game script for Tuten. But their defense is sneakily struggling as well. They're 25th in rushing success rate allowed, 29th in yards after contact allowed and 26th in stuffed %. Tuten is near the top of the league in all of those metrics himself, and he's gone over this number in all 4 games this season. |
| 2 | JAX/PHI | Bhayshul Tuten 60+ rushing yards | -102 | FD | 0.5 | Tuten ladder. |
| 3 | JAX/PHI | Bhayshul Tuten 70+ rushing yards | 158 | FD | 0.25 | Tuten ladder. |
Week 5 Bets (Sides, Totals, Game Props)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX/PHI | Eagles u18.5 points | -110 | Fanatics | 1 | The Eagles somehow eclipsed their team total last week, but they were outrageously lucky. They were tied with the Commanders for last in EPA/play on offense, 3rd worst in success rate and they had just 197 total yards of offense. They also lost Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby to injury. The Jags have a super elite run defense, and the Eagles are not equipped to succeed in the passing game. |
| 2 | DET/ARI | Cardinals o24.5 points | 101 | Caesars | 1 | What more is there to say about the Lions defense. We will continue to attack them every week. Through 4 weeks they rank dead last in success rate, EPA per drive, explosive play rate and rushing EPA allowed, and their offense is going to push every single one of their opponents to score. |
