Welcome to the Spike Week NFL Betting Blueprint! This is a weekly article I started last season to document our betting process here. Obviously, we are primarily focused on Best Ball drafts, but I also want to continue to expand our content offerings around sports betting, pick em, DFS, survivor and more to embrace all the aspects of this community that I am actively tackling and participating in.
I am not a professional bettor or handicapper, but I have been able to grind out profits, especially in player prop ladder bets, over the years, and I wanted to challenge myself by bringing it here to the Spike Week gang, where we have a very active and sharp group of folks in our discord crushing betting across all the major sports.
Before we dive into Week One, let’s recap a successful 2025 season first.
2025 Blueprint Recap
2025 was an exceptionally fun and strongly profitable season here at Spike Week, my first year taking on this betting venture in this format. As you can see below, the final tally on the season was a positive 18.5 units from Week One through the Super Bowl. We will see if we can build on that in 2026.
- Sides & Totals
- 41-38-2 (+6.53 units)
- Props
- 109-114 (+4.9725 units)
- Total
- 150-152-2 (+18.4875 units)
Here’s a link to the final betting blueprint of 2025 in the Super Bowl where you can see the week by week accounting, as well as all the Super Bowl bets and props, which finished 14-2 for the Super Bowl and up 7.985 units.
Quick Housekeeping
Always make sure to check back before the games each weekend, especially in the prop section, as we will occasionally get some late additions due to injury news, new props, etc. Every time we make an update, we will send out a notification in discord. There are also other incredibly sharp bettors in there posting their favorite plays every week! If you have a premium subscription, but you aren’t currently in the discord, just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord”.
Week 1 Props & Pick Em
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NEP/SEA | Demario Douglas o20.5 receiving yards | -105 | Fanatics | 1 | It's not the same setup as the Super Bowl with AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs here, but Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte are gone, leaving Pop as the "starting" slot receiver for the Pats. They are unlikely to find much success on the ground against the stout Seahawks front, and Pop is a great safety valve out of the slot against a strong pass rush. He went 5/45 in the Super Bowl on 7 targets, which was 2nd on the team. |
| 2 | NEP/SEA | Demario Douglas o1.5 receptoins | -180 | Fanatics | 1 | See above. |
| 3 | NEP/SEA | Demario Douglas 30+ receiving yards | 160 | 365 | 0.25 | Pop yards ladder. |
| 4 | NEP/SEA | Demario Douglas 40+ receiving yards | 300 | 365 | 0.25 | Pop yards ladder. |
| 5 | NEP/SEA | Demario Douglas 3+ receptions | 165 | Fanatics | 0.25 | Pop receptoins ladder. |
| 6 | NEP/SEA | Demario Douglas 4+ receptions | 450 | 365 | 0.25 | Pop receptoins ladder. |
| 7 | BAL/IND | Zay Flowers o63.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | My thesis heading into this season has been that the Ravens wide receivers are undervalued by the market, and that continues to be true at these numbers in Week One. With a new coaching staff, new personnel and OC Declan Doyle coming from the Ben Johnson tree, I expect this team to play a lot more 11 personnel and throw the ball down the field to their receivers in a way in which the prop market is not accounting for. |
| 8 | BAL/IND | Rashod Bateman o25.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | See above. |
| 9 | BAL/IND | Ja'Kobi Lane o19.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | See above. |
| 10 | CLE/JAX | Parker Washington o50.5 receiving yards | -115 | 365 | 1 | I think I've made my Parker love pretty well known this summer, but so have Liam Coen and the Jacksonville Jaguars. He is their unquestioned number one WR against a Browns defense that lost Myles Garrett this offseason. He went over this number in 8 of 11 games to close last season. |
| 11 | CLE/JAX | Chris Rodriguez o8.5 rush attempts | -102 | FD | 1 | CRod and Tuten are listed as co-starters on the depth chart, and I expect this to be a split backfield at least to start the season. The Jags should be able to play with a lead against the lowly Browns, and CRod's the perfect physical grinder back to lean on in a positive game script. |
| 12 | NYJ/TEN | Adonai Mitchell o30.5 receiving yards | -115 | 365 | 1 | AD went over this number in half his games after coming over to the Jets midseason last year, and the upgrade to Geno Smith is huge for his expectations in 2026. He's the WR2 behind Garrett Wilson, and he draws a great matchup with a Titans defense that projects to be one of the worst in the NFL this season. |
| 13 | NYJ/TEN | Mason Taylor o19.5 receiving yards | -116 | DK | 1 | Taylor is the starter at TE, at least until Kenyon Sadiq gets up to speed after missing nearly the entire summer. He had 65 targets in 13 games as a rookie, averaging 28.3 receiving yards per game, and he gets the same big Geno upgrade. |
| 14 | ATL/PIT | Drake London u65.5 receiving yards | -115 | Fanatics | 1 | London is a rough fit with Tua at QB, and the matchup with the Steelers is very far from ideal. Joey Porter Jr. is still ramping up, so that could help London, but this is a pretty lofty number given the QB issues here. |
| 15 | ATL/PIT | Jaylen Warren o2.5 receptions | -114 | FD | 1 | With Gainwell gone, I expect Warren to soak up some of that voluminous RB receiving work that comes from Aaron Rodgers, and he sneakily had 40 catches on 45 targets last season even with Gainwell there. |
| 16 | CHI/CAR | Tetairoa McMillan o58.5 receiving yards | -114 | DK | 1 | I am betting on the two main pass catchers here for the Panthers against a Bears defense that is set to be pretty brutal in 2026. TMac and Coker have essentially no target competition in this passing game, and they should be forced to the air by a prolific Bears offense. |
| 17 | CHI/CAR | Jalen Coker o37.5 receiving yards | -115 | 365 | 1 | I am betting on the two main pass catchers here for the Panthers against a Bears defense that is set to be pretty brutal in 2026. TMac and Coker have essentially no target competition in this passing game, and they should be forced to the air by a prolific Bears offense. |
| 18 | GB/MIN | Jordan Mason o40.5 rushing yards | -130 | Fanatics | 1 | Mason is set to lead the Vikings backfield on the ground this year, and he is priced down because of the disastrous 2025 season with JJ McCarthy at the helm. The Vikings offense overall should bounce back, but Mason is the price that projects to be off the most by a wide margin here. |
| 19 | PHI/WAS | Rachaad White u24.5 rushing yards | -113 | DK | 1 | The Eagles are not a team that you can run on, especially when you are one of the worst runners in the league like Rachaad White behind an undermanned offensive line. |
| 20 | KC/DEN | Patrick Mahomes u15.5 rushing yards | -114 | FD | 1 | Mahomes is in his first game after an ACL tear, and they have alluded to the fact he is not going to run as much this year, at least until he's healthy. |
| 21 | KC/DEN | Pat Bryant o21.5 receiving yards | -115 | 365 | 1 | Bryant has run away with the WR3 job for the Broncos, and they project to be a pretty pass heavy offense. When healthy down the stretch, he really started to emerge as a legit weapon in the Broncos passing game, and I think he can start to chip away at Courtland Sutton's standing as the WR2 here, but he's priced like a backup. |
| 22 | MIA/LV | Michael Mayer o39.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | No Bowers means Mayer is the man at tight end for the Raiders, and he might just be the man in the passing game given their lack of WR firepower. I'm very bullish on his talent, and the upgrades to the offense and coaching are perfect for a big game against the worst team in football. |
| 23 | MIA/LV | Tre Tucker o45.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | Tucker and Mayer should lead the way for the Raiders pass game in the absence of Bowers, and this matchup is pristine with the Dolphins. Klint Kubiak is too good not to put up some passing yards in this matchup, and it should flow through Tucker and Mayer. |
Week 1 Bets (Sides, Totals, Game Props)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ/TEN | Jets ML | 105 | MGM | 1 | I have the Jets as ever so slight favorites, so I'm scooping the value here. I'm actually quite bullish on their offense in 2026, and the Titans have a lot of question marks to be favored over a team that is, worst case, the same talent level. |
| 2 | MIA/LV | Raiders -3 | -110 | MGM | 1 | Yes, Brock Bowers is out. But I think this market push towards the Dolphins is bad steam. Klint Kubiak is a coach that we should trust, and they have made numerous upgrades to the roster this offseason. Ashton Jeanty is healthy, and there's enough firepower for Kubiak to take care of business against the lowly Dolphins. Maybe the Dolphins are not quite as bad as the "0-17" type talk, but I am still very happy to fade them here. In Kubiak we trust. |
| 3 | CHI/CAR | Panthers o21.5 points | -115 | DK | 1 | The Bears defense is one I am going to attack heavily at the start of the season. They do not project to be a great defense overall, and they are dealing with several injuries on that side of the ball at the start of the season. The Panthers are not some offensive juggernaut, but the Bears offense is going to be able to push teams to be aggressive with their own scoring. |
| 4 | NYJ/TEN | Over 38.5 points | -110 | FD | 1 | I am legitimately bullish on the Jets offense in 2026, and their defense should cede plenty of points, particuarly with a shaky pass defense. The Titans defense projects to be near the bottom of the league, and they have added some upgrades to the offense to get a little sneaky shootout going here. |
| 5 | DEN/KC | Broncos +2.5 | -102 | DK | 1 | I think the Broncos might be the best roster in the AFC, and the Chiefs are missing their left tackle with Pat Mahomes in his first game back from a very quick recovery of his knee injury, plus Rashee Rice looked a bit shaky during training camp. |
