Welcome to the Spike Week NFL Betting Blueprint! This is a weekly article I started last season to document our betting process here. Obviously, we are primarily focused on Best Ball drafts, but I also want to continue to expand our content offerings around sports betting, pick em, DFS, survivor and more to embrace all the aspects of this community that I am actively tackling and participating in.
I am not a professional bettor or handicapper, but I have been able to grind out profits, especially in player prop bets (& ladders!), over the years, and I wanted to challenge myself by bringing it here to the Spike Week gang, where we have a very active and sharp group of folks in our discord crushing betting across all the major sports.
Before we dive into Week Three, here’s a quick recap of the first two weeks (below). Week One got us off to a phenomenal start to 2026, but Week Two and Week Three were down weeks. Week 3 was generally positive, but we took a big stand on Tetairoa McMillan which was an epic failure. Even with Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette hurt, TMac mightily struggled. The remainder of the blueprint was in the green, but TMac caused us to be in the red by just under 3 units on the week. Week Four is time for a nice bounce back.
(If you’d like to see a recap of our 2025 season, plus the Week One Blueprint, you can find that here.)
Week One Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-2 (+0.93 units)
- Props
- 16-7 (+6.8075 units)
- Total
- 19-9 (+7.7375 units)
Week Two Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 5-12 (-5.68 units)
- Total
- 6-14 (-6.88 units)
Week Three Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-1 (+1.85 units)
- Props
- 7-10 (-4.665 units)
- Total
- 10-11 (-2.815 units)
YTD Stats:
- Sides & Totals
- 7-5 (+1.58 units)
- Props
- 28-29 (-3.5375 units)
- Total
- 35-34 (-1.9575 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Always make sure to check back before the games each weekend, especially in the prop section, as we will occasionally get some late additions due to injury news, new props, etc. Every time we make an update, we will send out a notification in discord. There are also other incredibly sharp bettors in there posting their favorite plays every week! If you have a premium subscription, but you aren’t currently in the discord, just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord”.
Week 4 Props & Pick Em
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NEP/BUF | Demario Douglas o27.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | The Pats & Drake Maye are struggling, but Pop's role is big. He's just one behind Romeo Doubs in total routes run on the season for the team lead, and he's 2nd behind Mack Hollins in targets. He's also being used a bit more down the field, with an aDOT of 12.8, and the Pats are going to have to throw to keep pace with the Bills, especially without Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore. |
| 2 | IND/WAS | Josh Downs o60.5 receiving yards | -125 | Fanatics | 1 | No Alec Pierce, Keenan Allen questionable and an elite matchup with a pressure heavy pass funnel defense. Downs has 45% of the team air yards, a 25% target share and is playing nearly 80% of the snaps on the season, and his YPRR sits just under 2 at 1.96. |
| 3 | IND/WAS | Stefon Diggs o40.5 receiving yards | -135 | Fanatics | 1 | Diggs' route participation can fluctuate game to game, but Terry McLaurin tweaked his hamstring in practice on Friday and is questioanble. Even if Terry plays, Diggs has gone over this number in 2 games, with the only under last week against a tough Seattle defense. This matchup is set up for him, however, as the Colts have been the worst team defending opposing slot receivers in the NFL so far, which is where Diggs has run 66% of his routes from. |
| 4 | GB/TB | Christian Watson o63.5 receiving yards | -115 | 365 | 1 | The Packers have no shot at running successfully in this spot against a tough Bucs run defense, and they have just 3 options in the passing game, with Watson as the top dog. But he profiles the best with his run after catch ability against the Bucs' blitz heavy scheme with the 3rd highest blitz rate in the NFL. Watson has cruised over this number in 2/3 games, with the lone letdown in a terrible weather game in Week 2. |
| 5 | GB/TB | Christian Watson 70+ receiving yards | 106 | DK | 0.25 | Watson ladder. |
| 6 | GB/TB | Christian Watson 80+ receiving yards | 155 | 365 | 0.25 | Watson ladder. |
| 7 | GB/TB | Christian Watson 90+ receiving yards | 225 | 365 | 0.25 | Watson ladder. |
| 8 | TEN/BAL | Zay Flowers o66.5 receiving yards | -115 | MGM | 1 | The Titans project as a bit of a pass funnel, and Zay is still undervalued in the markets, especially after returning to full practice Wed/Thu and resting on Friday. He's questionable technically, but it sounds like he's wheels up in Week 4. He has been an elite WR this season, with 12 targets on just 25 routes and a hilarious 9.36 YPRR. |
| 9 | TEN/BAL | Zay Flowers 75+ receiving yards | 105 | MGM | 1 | Zay ladder. |
| 10 | TEN/BAL | Zay Flowers 80+ receiving yards | 140 | DK | 0.25 | Zay ladder. |
| 11 | TEN/BAL | Zay Flowers 90+ receiving yards | 200 | DK | 0.25 | Zay ladder. |
| 12 | TEN/BAL | Zay Flowers 100+ receiving yards | 282 | DK | 0.25 | Zay ladder. |
| 13 | LAC/SEA | Justin Herbert u200.5 passing yards | -120 | Fanatics | 2 | Seattle has not allowed more than 176 passing yards in a game yet this season, and Justin Herbert's season high in passing yards was last week with 226 against a far easier opponent in the Bills. This is going to be a disaster for Herbert, especially if Ladd McConkey doesn't play. |
| 14 | LAC/SEA | Tory Horton o8.5 receiving yards | -115 | 365 | 1 | Horton's role grew a bit in week 3 but was still small, so this is a little speculative, but he was very impressive with 3 catches on 3 targets on his 10 routes for 48 yards. I think we soon see him play a greater role, and the Seahawks can't really run the football effectively, and this is a talent I am very bullish on with lots of target opportunity available after JSN in the pecking order. |
| 15 | LAC/SEA | Tory Horton 15+ receiving yards | 115 | FD | 0.25 | Horton ladder. |
| 16 | LAC/SEA | Tory Horton 20+ receiving yards | 200 | 365 | 0.25 | Horton ladder. |
| 17 | LAC/SEA | Tory Horton 30+ receiving yards | 350 | 365 | 0.25 | Horton ladder. |
| 18 | LAC/SEA | Tory Horton 40+ receiving yards | 700 | Hard Rock | 0.25 | Horton ladder. |
| 19 | MIA/MIN | Jaylen Wright u29.5 rushing yards | -115 | DK | 1 | Miami can't run, and no one can run on the Vikings. It's a split backfield, the Dolphins are going to play from behind, and Brian Flores is going to be relentless against his former employer. |
| 20 | MIA/MIN | Ollie Gordon u30.5 rushing yards | -115 | Fanatics | 1 | Miami can't run, and no one can run on the Vikings. It's a split backfield, the Dolphins are going to play from behind, and Brian Flores is going to be relentless against his former employer. |
| 21 | MIA/MIN | Jordan Addison o54.5 receiving yards | -114 | DK | 1 | No, I don't trust Kyler Murray, but there's no Justin Jefferson & Jauan Jennings appears to be cooked. Addison had 9 targets on 29 Kyler pass attempts last week, converting them into a 5/90/1 line. The Dolphins generate no pass rush, and Addison should have a huge target share this week. |
| 22 | MIA/MIN | Jordan Addison 60+ receiving yards | 108 | 365 | 0.5 | Addison ladder. |
| 23 | MIA/MIN | Jordan Addison 70+ receiving yards | 162 | 365 | 0.5 | Addison ladder. |
| 24 | TEN/BAL | Carnell Tate o40.5 receiving yards | -115 | 365 | 1 | Carnell Tate's QB may be terrible, but his role is elite. He's running nearly every route with a 25% target share, 45% air yards share and the 9th highest open score on ESPN. They will assuredly be playing catch up against the Ravens, and he just went 6/58 on 9 targets despite some woeful misses by Cam Ward against the Giants that could have led to a big day. |
| 24 | CIN/JAX | Bhayshul Tuten o53.5 rushing yards | -115 | 365 | 1 | Tuten's under the hood metrics have been legimitately elite, and he continues to grow into a larger share of the Jags backfield. He dominated the backfield carries before things got out of hand against the Pats last week, and he is 2nd in success rate, 3rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 3rd in yards after contact per attempt among RBs. The Bengals run defense might be suspect again, as we just saw Jaylen Warren go absolutely nuclear on the ground against them last week, even with a 90 yard run called back by penalty and tripping over his own feet in the open field on a big play. |
Week 4 Bets (Sides, Totals, Game Props)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC/SEA | Chargers u17.5 points | -135 | FD | 1 | The Seahawks defense gave up some points last week, but they still only allowed 258 yards. The Chargers have been one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season, and they might be without Ladd McConkey in this game. |
| 2 | ARI/NYG | Under 44.5 | -112 | DK | 1 | The Giants are dragging basically every game they play completely down into the mud. They are super run heavy (2nd lowest neutral pass rate), playing at a snail's pace (2nd lowest tempo) and trying to hide Jameis Winston's brutal QB play. Arizona is not as slow, but they are a short passing team who is also willing to lean on the run. |
| 3 | LAR/PHI | Eagles u19.5 points | -102 | MGM | 1 | The Eagles offense is a joke, and they have no Devonta Smith or Dallas Goedert against one of the better defenses in the league. They are also 7th lowest in PROE. What a mess. |
| 4 | DEN/SF | Broncos o22.5 points | -120 | DK | 1 | The Broncos offense is struggling, but the Niners defense is in shambles. They have a myriad of injuries on that side of the ball, led by Nick Bosa, and the Cardinals offense just completely controlled the game against them. It's a sneaky good bounce back spot for Bo Nix and co. |
| 5 | DET/CAR | Lions -3.5 | -110 | MGM | 1 | The Lions defense is, of course, in shambles on the back end, but the Panthers are ravaged by injuries as well. Jalen Coker is hurt, and they lost both starting cornerbacks to injury this past week. |
