Welcome to the Spike Week NFL Betting Blueprint! This is a weekly article I started last season to document our betting process here. Obviously, we are primarily focused on Best Ball drafts, but I also want to continue to expand our content offerings around sports betting, pick em, DFS, survivor and more to embrace all the aspects of this community that I am actively tackling and participating in.
I am not a professional bettor or handicapper, but I have been able to grind out profits, especially in player prop bets (& ladders!), over the years, and I wanted to challenge myself by bringing it here to the Spike Week gang, where we have a very active and sharp group of folks in our discord crushing betting across all the major sports.
Before we dive into Week Three, here’s a quick recap of the first two weeks (below). Week One got us off to a phenomenal start to 2026, but Week Two was a down week with a couple poor reads (Pat Bryant and Kaelon Black) and a couple unfortunate runouts with the Jaxson Dart injury and a Terry McLaurin hook. Thankfully, we are still sitting positive on the season, and we’ll look to bounce back in Week 3.
(If you’d like to see a recap of our 2025 season, plus the Week One Blueprint, you can find that here.)
Week One Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-2 (+0.93 units)
- Props
- 16-7 (+6.8075 units)
- Total
- 19-9 (+7.7375 units)
Week Two Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 5-12 (-5.68 units)
- Total
- 6-14 (-6.88 units)
YTD Stats:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-4 (-0.27 units)
- Props
- 21-19 (+1.1275 units)
- Total
- 25-23 (+0.8575 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Always make sure to check back before the games each weekend, especially in the prop section, as we will occasionally get some late additions due to injury news, new props, etc. Every time we make an update, we will send out a notification in discord. There are also other incredibly sharp bettors in there posting their favorite plays every week! If you have a premium subscription, but you aren’t currently in the discord, just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord”.
Week 3 Props & Pick Em
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL/GB | Jahan Dotson o17.5 receiving yards | -110 | DK | 1 | The return of Michael Penix is big for the Atlanta pas catchers. Most of the focus, rightfully so, is on the boost for Drake London, but Dotson has run 73% of routes through 2 weeks. My projection source has him for 24 yards, so clearly this number looks way too low. |
| 2 | ATL/GB | Skyy Moore o9.5 receiving yards | -135 | MGM | 1 | Skyy stepped in for Jayden Reed last week and ran 50% of the routes against the Jets. He finished with 2 catches for 6 yards, but he had 43 air yards on his 3 targets and an aDOT of 14.3. He projects well over this number even in a part time role. |
| 3 | NYJ/DET | Adonai Mitchell o45.5 receiving yards | -125 | Fanatics | 1 | Mitchell actually leads the Jets in targets on the season, with 1 more than Garrett Wilson. He has 237 air yards through 2 games, which is good for 7th in the entire NFL. The Lions pass defense is in absolute shambles after being ravaged by injuries, and their offense should push the Jets to the air plenty. |
| 4 | CAR/CLE | Tetairoa McMillan o58.5 receiving yards | -115 | 365 | 3 | This number is far too low for TMac against a bad Browns pass defense regardless, but it seems as though things are trending in the wrong direction for Jalen Coker in practice. Coker has out-produced him so far, but the underlying numbers still very much point to TMac being undervalued here. He leads the team in routes and air yards (40% of team AY), and he's cruised past this number in both games. He has a 27% slot rate so far, but that could tick up with Coker banged up (45% slot rate for Coker), and the Browns have been torched from the slot to start the year, allowing 11.5 yards per target to the slot (7th worst). I also want to get this in before any potential news of Coker sitting breaks. |
| 5 | CAR/CLE | Tetairor McMillan 70+ receiving yards | 155 | 365 | 0.5 | Ladder on McMillan receiving. |
| 6 | CAR/CLE | Tetairor McMillan 80+ receiving yards | 225 | 365 | 0.5 | Ladder on McMillan receiving. |
| 7 | CAR/CLE | Tetairor McMillan 90+ receiving yards | 320 | 365 | 0.25 | Ladder on McMillan receiving. |
| 8 | CAR/CLE | Tetairor McMillan 100+ receiving yards | 475 | 365 | 0.25 | Ladder on McMillan receiving. |
| 9 | LAC/BUF | Dalton Kincaid o54.5 receiving yards | -113 | BetRivers | 1 | Kincaid has 130 and 95 receiving yards in the first two games respectively, and the market hasn't fully caught on to his new role with a real route share and the leader in this Bills passing game. The Bills have one of the highest PROEs in the league with the highest aDOT, as Joe Brady has fully unleashed Josh Allen. That should continue against a Chargers team that has been an extreme pass funnel to start the season, and Kincaid leads the team in targets, air yards, and he's 3rd in the entire NFL in receiving yards through 2 games. |
| 10 | KC/MIA | Emmett Johnson o10.5 receiving yards | -113 | DK | 1 | Emmett has looked phenomenal in relief of Ken Walker to start the year, and he's particularly effective as a pass catcher out of the backfield. That was a huge part of his college profile, and he's turned 4 targets into 4 catches for 64 yards already in two games. The Dolphins have actually been a bit of a pass funnel on defense, with the worst pass defense in the league and an ok run defense. They also have given up big receiving games to both Jeanty and CMC to start the year, and Emmett should get some more work here as the Chiefs cruise to a victory. |
| 11 | HOU/IND | Jaylin Noel o24.5 receiving yards | -113 | DK | 1 | Looks like no Nico Collins again this week, and it's a sneaky good spot for Noel. He has played 78% of his snaps in the slot, and his route participation bumped up to 62% last week without Nico. He's gone over this number in both games, and the Colts have been downright horrific against slot receivers to start the year. They've allowed by far the most targets to players lined up in the slot in the league, with the 2nd highest target rate to slot receivers, with both Ravens and Chiefs slot receivers torching them in b2b weeks. |
| 12 | NEP/JAX | Parker Washington o60.5 receiving yards | -125 | Fanatics | 1 | For the love of all that is holy, when will the markets put some respect on Parker's name. He's blown past this number in both games so far, including a tough matchup with the Broncos last week. The Pats are another tough matchup, but they are more vulnerable in the slot, where Parker plays more than half his snaps and can avoid Christian Gonzalez's coverage. He was one of the best receivers in football down the stretch of last season, and he has continued that this year with the 2nd highest target share in the league behind only JSN at 38%, the 4th best YPRR and 5th highest AY%. |
| 13 | TEN/NYG | Carnell Tate o36.5 receiving yards | -110 | DK | 1 | It's been a rough start for Tate to his NFL career, but he gets a nice bounce back spot against a leaky Giants secondary. They're dealing with a ton of injuries back there, and they were just torched by the Rams passing game. Clearly, the Titans are not the Rams, but Tate has run a route on 81% of Titan dropbacks, and he has a 24% target share combined with an elite 42% air yards share. He even has a higher WOPR than Christian Watson, Ja'Marr Chase and many other top end receivers. |
| 14 | SEA/WAS | Jaxon Smith-Njigba o85.5 receiving yards | -115 | 365 | 1 | What else is there to say about JSN at this point? He has an insane 44% target share through 2 games, and he's been targeted on a hilarious 46% of his route while maintaining the highest YPRR in the NFL. Those numbers will regress by season's end, but this is not the matchup for it to happen, with Washington's bottom 5 pass defense that also sets up as a pass funnel with their so far stout run defense and 44% blitz rate. |
Week 3 Bets (Sides, Totals, Game Props)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL/GB | Falcons +5.5 | -110 | Fanatics | 1 | It's been a brutal start for Atlanta, but they get Michael Penix back for TNF. While Penix isn't some world beater, the upgrade from Cooper Rush is substantial for their offense. On the other side, the Packers lost Jayden Reed and the offensive line is in shambles. They are 29th in EPA/play and have posted a laughable 15% pass block win rate so far this year, and they are on a short week after an OT game on Sunday where they narrowly escaped against the Jets. |
| 2 | CAR/CLE | Panthers -2.5 | -115 | MGM | 1 | My lesson from the Browns win over the Bucs was that the Bucs are in some pretty big trouble, not that the Browns have turned a corner. They are still 7th worst in the NFL in overall EPA/play, while the Panthers have been 14th best in that same metric despite the defense getting torched by the Bears in Week One. I'm not fully buying into the Panthers offensive explosion to start the year given their matchiups, but this is another good matchup with a vulnerable Browns defense, and we saw that the Panthers defense is not as bad as they seemed in Week One. |
| 3 | NYJ/DET | Over 47.5 | -110 | MGM | 1 | Lions games continue to be shootouts more often than not with their high powered offense paired with a rough defense that's been decimated by injury to the back end. The Jets offense is a bit sneaky, and they have the pass game weapons to take advantage of that Lions secondary, and the Jets defense has held up thus far, but they've largely feasted on two really good matchups with some injury and weather luck on their side last week. |
| 4 | LAC/BUF | Bills -7 | -112 | MGM | 1 | If this is the week the Chargers miraculously turn it around, I will happy eat my L. The Bills have been an unstoppable wagon on offense, and the Chargers have been completely incompetent through two games. The Bills defense can be vulnerable, but so were the two defenses that the Chargers just played, in which they struggled to move the ball. The Chargers pass defense has also been woeful, and the Bills have completely unlocked Josh Allen with the league's 2nd highest PROE and the highest aDOT. |
