Welcome to the Spike Week NFL Betting Blueprint! This is a weekly article I started last season to document our betting process here. Obviously, we are primarily focused on Best Ball drafts, but I also want to continue to expand our content offerings around sports betting, pick em, DFS, survivor and more to embrace all the aspects of this community that I am actively tackling and participating in.
I am not a professional bettor or handicapper, but I have been able to grind out profits, especially in player prop bets (& ladders!), over the years, and I wanted to challenge myself by bringing it here to the Spike Week gang, where we have a very active and sharp group of folks in our discord crushing betting across all the major sports.
Before we dive into Week Two, here’s a quick recap of Week One, where we ended up + units.
(If you’d like to see a recap of our 2025 season, plus the Week One Blueprint, you can find that here.)
Week One Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-2 (+0.93 units)
- Props
- 16-7 (+6.8075 units)
- Total
- 19-9 (+7.7375 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Always make sure to check back before the games each weekend, especially in the prop section, as we will occasionally get some late additions due to injury news, new props, etc. Every time we make an update, we will send out a notification in discord. There are also other incredibly sharp bettors in there posting their favorite plays every week! If you have a premium subscription, but you aren’t currently in the discord, just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord”.
Week 2 Props & Pick Em
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET/BUF | Dalton Kincaid o49.5 receiving yards | -114 | DK | 1 | Kincaid had the second highest route participation on the Bills last week (69%), just behind DJ Moore. The question for him has always been about routes, not about talent, efficiency or target earning. He showed that last week in a tough matchup with the Texans, finishing with a 5/130 line and he should be plenty involved in a shootout with the pass funnel Lions defense. |
| 2 | GB/NYJ | Matthew Golden o43.5 receiving yards | -115 | 365 | 2 | Christian Watson stole the headlines, but Golden actually led the team in routes (40) and out-targeted Watson 12 to 8 (29% target share). He had a strong day himself, finishing 6/95, and the Packers are likely to have to lean more on the pass game again here. The market has simply not adjusted to Golden's current role and projection, and this is a strong matchup with the Jets. |
| 3 | GB/NYJ | Matthew Golden 50+ receiving yards | 122 | 365 | 1 | Will be waiting for further ladder rungs to become available to add here. |
| 4 | MIN/CHI | Justin Jefferson o75.5 receiving yards | -125 | Fanatics | 1 | JJ came out cooking in week one, despite the loss of Kyler Murray early in that game. Hilariously, he has been elite with Carson Wentz at QB, and he finished with an 8/92 line last week on a 38% target share. Now, he draws the Bears defense that was just shredded by Bryce Young, Tet McMillan and Jalen Coker. |
| 5 | MIA/SF | Kaelon Black o39.5 rushing yards | -112 | DK | 1 | The Niners are 2 TD favorites over the lowly Dolphins this week, and Black picked up 14 carries for 65 yards last week in a similar game script against a much tougher opponent. CMC himself discussed how Black has earned a real role as the RB2, and this is the perfect game for that to happen, especially as Jeanty/Washington combined for 30 carries and 143 yards last week in this matchup (w/ Washington going 7/41 as the backup). |
| 6 | MIA/SF | Kaelon Black 50+ rushing yards | 175 | 365 | 0.25 | Kaelon Black rushing yards ladder. |
| 7 | MIA/SF | Kaelon Black 60+ rushing yards | 320 | 365 | 0.25 | Kaelon Black rushing yards ladder. |
| 8 | MIA/SF | Kaelon Black o9.5 rushing attempts | -116 | DK | 1 | Adding Black rushing attempts to the rushing yards. |
| 9 | JAX/DEN | Parker Washington o54.5 receiving yards | -115 | MGM | 1 | Parker followed up his breakout last season with another dominant performance in week one against the Browns, finishing with a 5/83/1 line on just 18 routes as the Jags rotated guys in during the 2nd half when the game was out of hand. He earned a target on 33% of his routes and posted an elite 4.61 yard per route run. The Broncos are a big step up in competition, but that should lead to significantly more routes, and he cooked this matchup last year (6/145/1 on 9 targets). |
| 10 | MIN/CHI | Luther Burden o49.5 receiving yards | -125 | MGM | 1 | This is a sneaky good spot for Burden. Brian Flores brings pressure at a higher rate than anyone with the Vikings defense, which leads to the ball coming out quicker to opposing playmakers. Burden is one of the best YAC receivers in the league, finishing 4th in the NFL last season among qualified receivers in YAC per reception at 7.2. 29 of his 63 yards in the opener were after the catch, and the Bears should be forced to the air plenty in this matchup. |
| 11 | NO/BAL | Chris Oalve u74.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | The Saints ran an absurd 85 plays last week while in catch up mode against the Lions and going to OT. Tyler Shough dropped back to pass more times than the total amount of plays most teams ran. The Ravens defense has already come up and said they are going to make it a point to take away Olave given the lack of other weapons on the Saints offense, and the Ravens defense played quite well against the Colts in the opener. |
| 12 | WAS/DAL | Terry McLaurin o50.5 receiving yards | -125 | Fanatics | 1 | Terry was shutdown in the opener, but the Eagles and Quinyon Mitchell are about as tough of a matchup as you can get. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense had one of the worst performances in the last two seasons in EPA/play allowed. This makes for the perfect bounce back spot for Terry, as the Commanders should be pushed plenty to score with the Dallas offense on the other side. |
| 13 | JAX/DEN | Pat Bryant o30.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 2 | The Broncos pathetic performance last week at least gave us the opportunity to run back Pat Bryant. He led the Broncos in targets with 6, good for a 21% target share. He earned a target on 28.5% of his routes and was still reasonably efficient per route (2.00 YPRR) despite the poor team performance (and a bad drop). The Jags secondary appears to still be a question mark, and Bryant's new role isn't appropriately accounted for in these numbers. |
| 14 | JAX/DEN | Pat Bryant 40+ receiving yards | 148 | FD | 0.5 | Bryant ladder. |
| 15 | JAX/DEN | Pat Bryant 50+ receiving yards | 240 | FD | 0.25 | Bryant ladder. |
| 16 | JAX/DEN | Pat Bryant o3.5 receptions | 144 | FD | 1 | The Broncos pathetic performance last week at least gave us the opportunity to run back Pat Bryant. He led the Broncos in targets with 6, good for a 21% target share. He earned a target on 28.5% of his routes and was still reasonably efficient per route (2.00 YPRR) despite the poor team performance (and a bad drop). The Jags secondary appears to still be a question mark, and Bryant's new role isn't appropriately accounted for in these numbers. |
| 17 | GB/NYJ | Adonai Mitchell o33.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | This should be a much more voluminous passing game for the Jets this week. They had the league's lowest pass rate thanks to the putrid performance from the Titans allowing them to cruise to an easy win. But Mitchell turned 3 targets into 60 yards on 21 routes last week, and he is the clear WR2 for a sneaky solid Jets pass game with Geno Smith at the helm. |
| 18 | GB/NYJ | Garrett Wilson o60.5 receiving yards | -120 | Fanatics | 1 | This should be a much more voluminous passing game for the Jets this week. They had the league's lowest pass rate thanks to the putrid performance from the Titans allowing them to cruise to an easy win. But Wilson was the dominant presence in the passing game last week, with 7 targets on 24 Geno pass attempts and just 21 routes. He posted 79 yards on 3.76 yards per route run, and the volume for the Jets should sky rocket here. |
Week 2 Bets (Sides, Totals, Game Props)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN/CHI | Over 48.5 | -105 | FD | 1 | As we thought coming into the season, Bears games are going to be like the Coors Field of the NFL with a really porous defense paired with arguably the best offense in the league. Minnesota will put up more resistance on defense than Carolina, but Brian Flores' blitzing style is prone to allowing some big plays on the back end or in the run game when the pressure doesn't get home or coverage doesn't hold up. |
| 2 | CIN/HOU | Under 46.5 | -105 | FD | 1 | Houston's defense was shredded by the Bills in Week One, but I am holding strong on that unit as one of the very best in the league. They have an especially sizable mismatch up front against the Bengals OL (29th in pass block win rate week 1), and despite a solid scoring effort against the Bills, I am not ready to proclaim the Texans an upper half offense yet. That's especially true this week, given that the Bengals defense showcased their talent upgrades in a strong showing against the Bucs, limiting the Bucs to 24th in EPA/play last week. |
| 3 | NYG/LAR | Giants +7.5 | -115 | 365 | 1 | The Giants dismantled the Cowboys in Week One, and I think this team is just going to be a pain to play against. They are playing a slow, ground and pound offense around Dart/Skatt, and they have enough weaponry in the pass game with Nabers/Likely to sustain drives and keep defenses honest. The Rams will be fine, but they lost Myles Garrett to IR after last week, so even as they bounce back from the chaos of the Melbourne trip, I think the Giants hang here, especially with the hook on 365. |
