These previews will be with the information we had before the lockout that started on Thursday, December 2nd, 2021. I’ll use projected starting lineups and rotations that are subject to change when the lockout ends, and roster moves can be made again. On February 10th the MLB agreed to a universal DH that will be implemented this year. As of today, we are still waiting for news on when/if the 2022 season will begin. All past data is from 2021’s Underdog Fantasy’s tournament: The Dinger and these articles will be focused on Underdog Fantasy’s Best Ball.
I will be referring to this table when referencing advance rates.
This table is in reference to 2021 The Dinger Tournament on UD. This information is courtesy of Anthony DiStefano, (@Dustmuffin16) on Twitter.
Baltimore Orioles
Record: 52-110
2021 Recap
Simply put, the Orioles were abysmal last year. Offensively they were in the bottom half of the league in all major categories and failed to capture 60 wins for the third straight season.
They did offer some individual fantasy production by players who were all going after the 11th rounds. Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini both finished inside the top 100 batters (70th and 83rd) and had above average advance rates (31.7% and 36.7%) to the qualifying rounds.
Cedric Mullins was a revelation. Prior to the 2021 season, he played a total of 115 games in the majors putting up a 72 wRC+ and a -0.4 WAR. (which if you don’t know, is really bad). He flipped a switch in 2021 becoming a first-time all-star and the 7th player in the last decade with 30 homers and 30 steals in a season. Due to his MLB resume, Mullins went completely undrafted, but his breakout season catapulted him to the 14th ranked batter in 2021.
On the pitching side of things, there wasn’t much offered in terms of fantasy production. John Means was the Orioles ace last year and finished as the 63rd pitcher. He was rostered on 86% of teams and was well below average in advance rate with 21.9%.
Jorge Lopez and Matt Harvey were the next best option for the Os and it wasn’t pretty. They both went rightfully undrafted and finished as the 127th and 147th pitcher respectively.
Key Roster Moves
Additions:
Rougned Odor, IF – Agreed to a one-year contract as a free agent
Jordan Lyles, SP – Agreed to a one-year contract as a free agent
Jorge Lopez, SP – Agreed to one year contract (Arbitration)
Anthony Santander, OF – Agreed to one year contract (Arbitration)
Losses:
Pedro Severino, C – Outrighted to minors
2022 Free Agents:
Matt Harvey, SP – Free Agency
Projected Starting Lineup
Cedric Mullins, OF,
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B
Anthony Santander, OF
Trey Mancini, DH
Austin Hays, OF
Ramon Urias, SS
Rougned Odor, 2B
Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B
Jacob Nottingham, C
Projected Starters
John Means, SP
Jordan Lyles, SP
Bruce Zimmerman, SP
Keegan Akin, SP
Zac Lowther, S
Projected 2022 Record: 64-98
2022 Outlook
The 2022 Orioles are likely to struggle. They are still in the midst of a rebuild and play in one of the toughest, if not the toughest division in baseball. They have the 17th projected offense led by three batters projected inside the top 100, Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, and Ryan Mountcastle.
Their pitching staff continues to underwhelm as last year’s ace, John Means remains the only draftable pitcher projected as the 58th ranked pitcher in 2022.
Looking to the future, the O’s have top-catching prospect Adley Rutschman likely to make his MLB debut in 2022. The MLB has a Super Two rule, which decides when a player will be eligible for arbitration, and as we wait for a new CBA it’s undecided how much the current rule will be modified. So, barring any massive changes, it’s not a matter of if he’ll be called up it’s when he’ll be called up.
Also, a reminder they changed their left-field wall dimensions. I’ll leave a link to Derek Carty’s Twitter thread which breaks it down better than I could.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 92-70
2021 Recap
The Red Sox exceeded expectations in 2021. Projections across the industry had them finishing in the bottom half of their division and unlikely to make the playoffs. That proved not to be the case as the Red Sox made the playoffs and advanced as far as the ALCS.
Offensively they had six batters finish in the top 100 with above average advance rates to the qualifying rounds: Xander Bogaerts (29.6%), Rafael Devers (37.3%), Hunter Renfroe (39.1%), Alex Verdugo (39.1%), JD Martinez (42.6%), Kike Hernandez (53.49%). Everyone was rostered in 100% of the tournament except Hernandez, who was rostered in only 25% of leagues.
Devers and Martinez exceeded their 2nd and 3rd rounds price tags finishing as the 11th and 30th ranked batters. Bogaerts was a slight disappointment as a late 3rd rounds pick, but it was minor as he finished as the 40th ranked batter.
Hunter Renfroe was the top value for the Sox being drafted between the 16th and 18th rounds and finishing as the 61st overall batter, while also providing a great advance rate of 39.10%.
Alex Verdugo and Kiki Hernandez were also values for the Sox. Verdugo was being drafted in the 10th or 11th rounds and finished as the 79th overall batter. As for Hernandez, he was being drafted between the 15th and 18th rounds and finished as the 85th overall batter.
On the mound, the Sox had a trio of guys outperform their ADP and return value in the later rounds.
Eduardo Rodriguez made his return to the mound after his 2020 season was cut short due to a COVID-related heart issue called Myocarditis. He was the first Sox pitcher going off the board between the 10th and 14th rounds and was the only one 100% rostered in the tournament. He finished the season as the 35th ranked pitcher and had a below-average advance rate of 23.7%.
Nathan Eovaldi was the next pitcher being drafted and was the Sox ace in 2021. He was basically free, going between the 16th and 18th rounds, and finished as the 20th ranked pitcher. He was rostered in 86% of the tournament and had a slightly above-average advance rate of 28.1%.
The third pitcher in this trio is Nick Pivetta. After being traded in 2020 to the Sox and finishing the year with an impressive two starts, Pivetta came into the 2021 season as a wild card. He went completely undrafted in the tournament and finished as the 38th ranked pitcher, which was 3 spots behind teammate E-Rod. He put up career best numbers in many different statistics and proved he deserved a spot in the rotation.
Chris Sale was on the IL for most of the 2021 season recovering from Tommy John surgery but rejoined the team in August. He was rostered in 50% of the tournament and had a poor advance rate of 12%. His underlying numbers weren’t terrible, in 9 starts he went 5-1, with a 3.16 ERA, 3.69 FIP, and a 3.44 SIERA.
Key Roster Moves
Additions:
Jackie Bradley Jr. – Acquired in a trade with the Brewers
Rich Hill – Agreed to a one-year contract
James Paxton – Agreed to a one-year contract
Michael Wacha – Agreed to a one-year contract
Losses:
Hunter Renfroe – Traded to the Brewers
Eduardo Rodriquez – Became a free agent, signed with the Tigers
2022 Free Agents
Travis Shaw – Became a free agent
Christian Vasquez – Club option declined
Martin Perez – Club option declined
Garrett Richards – Club option declined
Kyle Schwarber – Mutual option declined
Projected Starting Lineup
Kike Hernandez, 2B
Rafael Devers, 3B
Xander Bogaerts, SS
J.D. Martinez, DH
Alex Verdugo, RF
Bobby Dalbec, 1B
Jarren Duran, LF
Christian Vazquez, C
Jackie Bradley Jr, CF
Projected Starters
Nathan Eovaldi, SP
Chris Sale, SP
Nick Pivetta, SP
Rich Hill, SP
Michael Wacha, SP
Tanner Houck, SP
James Paxton*, SP
Projected 2022 Record: 83-79
2022 Outlook
The Red Sox have quickly retooled their roster and will once again be contenders in 2022. They have the 5th ranked projected offense led by six players projected in the overall top 100: Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Kiki Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, and Bobby Dalbec.
They are returning most of their starting lineup, with the major shake-up being they replaced Hunter Renfroe with Jackie Bradley this offseason. Bradley Jr. provides more on defense for the Sox and isn’t close to the power threat that Renfroe was. He is projected as the 332nd overall batter this season.
There is a trio of pitchers that stand out once again for the Sox: Chris Sale is projected as the 17th ranked pitcher, Nathan Eovaldi, the sox top pitcher last year, is projected as the 31st ranked pitcher, and Nick Pivetta is the 57th ranked pitcher in 2022.
New York Yankees
Record: 92-70
2021 Recap
It was a disappointing season for the Yankees, who failed to make it past the wild card rounds while rolling out a roster 2nd in payroll. From a fantasy perspective, there is a lot to like. They had an offense that produced five top 100 batters and a pitching staff with three top 100 pitchers.
All five of the Yankees batters were rostered in 100% of the tournament but offered mixed advanced rates to the qualifying rounds; Aaron Judge (32%), Joey Gallo*(42.6%), Giancarlo Stanton (25.4%), DJ LeMahieu (21.9%), and Anthony Rizzo* (20.7%).
*Traded to the Yankees midseason
Aaron Judge finished 4th in AL MVP voting and proved he is still a force in the lineup. He was a slight value going between the 2nd and 4th rounds and finished as the 19th batter.
They retooled their offense midseason adding the likes of Gallo and Rizzo at the trade deadline. Gallo was a slight value going between the 4th and 6th rounds and finished as the 38th ranked batter. Rizzo was a bit of a disappointment going in the same 4th to 6th round range as Gallo but finished much worse as the 88th ranked batter.
Stanton and LeMahieu were small disappointments who were being drafted between the 3rd and 6th rounds and wound up as the 54th and 81st batter.
The trio of pitchers varied drastically in how much they were rostered in the tournament and their advance rates. Gerrit Cole was 100% rostered and had a great advance rate of 37.9%. Taillon was 95% rostered and had a below-average advance rate of 21.1%. Jordan Montgomery 47% rostered and had a below-average advance rate of 22.5%.
Cole had a much better first half than in the second half in 2021, when he missed time on the COVID IL. He had a hefty 1st round price tag and still finished as the 5th ranked pitcher in 2021 with that missed time.
Taillon was going between the 13th and 16th rounds and was the disappointing pick finishing as the 66th ranked pitcher. Montgomery was being drafted between the 15th and 18th rounds and finished as the 42nd ranked pitcher.
Key Roster Moves
Additions:
Gio Urshela – Agreed to one year deal (Arbitration)
Domingo German – Agreed to one year deal (Arbitration)
Jose Peraza – Agreed to a minor league contract
Losses:
Corey Kluber – Became a free agent, signed with the Rays
2022 Free Agents:
Brett Gardner – Mutual option declined
Anthony Rizzo – Became a free agent
Clint Fraizer – Cleared Waivers; released
Rougned Odor – Cleared Waivers; released
Projected Starting Lineup
DJ LeMahieu, 3B
Aaron Judge, RF
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Joey Gallo, LF
Luke Voit, 1B
Gleybar Torres, 2B
Aaron Hicks, CF
Gary Sanchez, C
Gio Urshela, SS
Projected Starters
Gerrit Cole, SP
Jordan Montgomery, SP
Luis Severino, SP
Nestor Cortes, SP
Domingo German, SP
Projected 2022 Record: 90-72
2022 Outlook
With the lockout still in place, all we have is rumors of what the Yankees might do in free agency. Will they sign Carlos Correa? Will they allow Luke Voit to be an everyday player, or will they bring in a 1B?
What we can do is look at what we do know. Anthony Rizzo is currently a free agent and that would be the only significant change to their starting lineup from the end of last year unless you want to count Rougned Odor(laughs).
The Yankees have the 4th ranked projected offense led by five players projected in the top 100: Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleybar Torres, and DJ LeMahieu.
They have four starters ranked inside the top 100 pitchers led by Gerrit Cole, the projected #1 overall pitcher. The other three pitchers are well behind Cole in the rankings with Jordan Montgomery (50th), Jameson Taillon, (86th) and Luis Severino (87th).
Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 100-62
2021 Recap
The Rays had the best record in the American League and the third-best record in baseball last year but came up short to the Red Sox in the ALDS. They had an offense with four batters finishing in the top 100 batters and three pitchers who placed inside the top 100 pitchers but none cracked the top 50.
All four of the batters were 100% rostered in the tournament and had mixed advanced rates to the qualifying rounds; Brandon Lowe (23.1%), Randy Arozarena (26.6%), Nelson Cruz (33.73%), and Austin Meadows (42%)
Arozarena was the first of the four Rays being drafted and was a slight value being drafted between the 4th and 7th rounds and finishing as the 39th ranked batter to end the season.
The Rays made some mid-season moves last year shipping SS Willy Adames to the Brewers and trading for Veteran slugger Nelson Cruz from the Twins. He didn’t quite produce the way he was in Minnesota, but he was still solid for the Rays. He was a slight value being drafted between the 5th and 8th rounds and ranked as the 57th batter last season.
Lowe was the Rays best value being drafted between the 9th and 12th rounds but finished the season as the 22nd overall batter in 2021, which is interesting given his low advance rate.
Meadows was being drafted between the 5th and 11th rounds and finished as the 58th ranked batter. He is anywhere from efficiently drafted to a great value depending on which round he was drafted.
The Rays would have had four pitchers in the top 100 but they traded away Rich Hill at the trade deadline. The trio of pitchers varied drastically in how much they were rostered in the tournament and their advance rates. Tyler Glasnow was 100% rostered and had a great advance rate of 39.4%. Ryan Yarbrough was 28% rostered and had a good advance rate of 33%. Shane McClanahan wasn’t rostered at all in last year’s tournament.
Tyler Glasnow was being drafted between the 3rd and 5th rounds and finished the season as the 86th overall pitcher. He was shut down for the 2021 season in late July and underwent Tommy John Surgery. He was having a great season prior to the injury tallying a 2.66 ERA with 123 strikeouts in 88 innings. He told reporters his injury came from not using sunscreen and rosin to get a grip on the ball due to the MLB’s sudden decision to implement a foreign substance ban. He will likely miss the entire 2022 season recovering.
Ryan Yarbrough was 28% rostered and going between the 14th and 18th rounds with an advance rate of 33%. He was a decent value as last year finishing as the 84th ranked pitcher.
Shane McClanahan was the Rays top pitcher in 2021 and went completely undrafted. He impressed right away in his MLB Debut in April and finished the season as the 65th ranked pitcher. He went 10-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 141 strikeouts in 123.1 innings.
The Rays called up their top prospect Wander Franco in June and he finished the season as the 218th ranked batter. He hit .288 BA, .347 OBP, .463 SLG, .810 OPS and he finished the season with more hits (55) than swinging strikes (48).
Shane Baz was another top prospect called up by the Rays in 2021 who made an immediate impact. He made just three starts in September going 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 13.1 innings. He was impressed enough to get the call as Game 2 starter in the ALDS against the Red Sox.
Key Roster Moves
Additions:
Corey Kluber – Agreed to a one-year contract
Wander Franco – Signed 11-year contract extension
Mike Zunino – Club Option Exercised
Ji- Man Choi – Agreed to one year contract (Arbitration)
Losses:
Michael Wacha – Became a free agent, signed with the Red Sox
Joey Wendle – Traded to the Marlins
Jordan Luplow – Traded to the Diamondbacks
Mike Brosseua – Traded to the Brewers
2022 Free Agents:
Collin McHugh – Became a free agent
Nelson Cruz – Became a free agent,
Chris Archer – Became a free agent
Projected Starting Lineup
Brandon Lowe, 2B
Wander Franco, SS
Austin Meadows, DH
Randy Arozarena, LF
Ji-Man Choi, 1B
Yandy Diaz, 3B
Manuel Margot, RF
Mike Zunino, C
Kevin Kiermaier, CF
Projected Starters
Shane McClanahan, SP
Drew Rasmussen, SP
Corey Kluber, SP
Ryan Yarbrough, SP
Luis Patino, SP
Shane Baz, SP
Projected Record: 88-74
2022 Outlook 2022
The Rays are coming into the season with the 15th ranked projected offense led by four players inside the top 100: Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, and Austin Meadows.
They signed Franco to a massive contract extension this offseason, while also bringing back Mike Zunino and Ji Man Choi. It remains to be seen what other roster moves will be made but anything they do will most likely be minor, with their lineup looking set.
They have three pitchers ranked inside the top 100 led by: Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, and free agent signing Corey Kluber.
Although Baz made his debut in 2021, he is still considered the Ray’s top prospect after Wander Franco was called up. Expect the rays to lean on youngsters McClanahan and Baz more this season as Tyler Glasnow recovers from Tommy John surgery.
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 91-71
2021 Recap
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I think that sums it up?
No, but in all seriousness, the 2021 Blue Jays were extremely fun to watch. For some they exceeded expectations and for others, it’s exactly what they expected. They had an offense with four players that finished inside the top 100, and three of them finished in the top 10. Oh, and their pitching staff wasn’t too bad with all five starters finishing inside the top 100, which included a Cy Young Winner.
All four batters were 100% rostered in the tournament and offered above-average advance rates to the qualifying rounds: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., (45.6%), Marcus Semien (52.1%), Bo Bichette (33.1%), and Teoscar Hernandez (29.6%).
Vlad Jr. was a GIANT value finishing 2nd in AL MVP voting and showing everyone his superstar potential. He was the #1 overall player in 2021 and was being drafted between the 3rd and 6th rounds. It’s safe to say we won’t be getting any third Vlad Jr. any time soon.
Semien was another giant value finishing 3rd in AL MVP voting and earning himself a massive payday in the offseason. He finished as the 3rd overall batter in 2021 and was being drafted between the 6th and 11th rounds.
It was Bichette’ first full season in the majors and he didn’t disappoint one bit. He was being drafted between the 3rd and 5th rounds and finished as the 9th ranked batter in 2021.
Hernandez didn’t finish top 10 like the other three, but he had enjoyed his best season in the majors to date. He was being drafted between the 6th and 9th rounds and finished as the 28th overall batter.
George Springer was hurt to start the season and didn’t fully rejoin the team until June. He then dealt with more injuries after returning resulting in only 78 games played in 2021. He will look to be back healthy and ready for the start of 2022.
The Blue Jays offense wasn’t the only place for fantasy production. Their pitching staff had five starters finish inside the top 100 who varied drastically in roster percentage and their advance rates.
Robbie Ray, Jose Berrios and Hyun Jin Ryu were 100% rostered in the tournaments while Stevan Matz and Alek Monoah went completely undrafted. Their advance rates were as follows: Ray (35.5%), Berrios (31%), and Ryu (26.6%).
Robbie Ray was another giant value for the Blue Jays. He had a career year in his age 29 season and won the AL Cy Young. He was being drafted between the 7th and 14th rounds and finished as the 2nd overall pitcher in 2021. He finished the season with 32 starts going 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA, 248 strikeouts in 193.1 innings pitched.
Jose Berrios was acquired mid-season from the Twins and helped provide depth to the Jays pitching staff. He was a decent value being drafted between the 4th and 6th rounds and finishing as the 14th overall pitcher in 2021.
Hyun Jin Ryu had one of his worst seasons as a starter and battled injuries. The 34-year-old was being drafted between the 5th and 11th rounds and finished as the 43rd overall pitcher. He’ll look to rebound in 2022.
Key Roster Moves
Additions:
Kevin Gausman – Signed a five-year contract
Jose Berrios – Signed a seven-year contract (Arbitration)
Losses:
Marcus Semien – Became a free agent, signed with the Rangers
Steven Matz – Became a free agent, signed with the Cardinals
Robbie Ray – Became a free agent, signed with the Mariners
2022 Free Agents:
Corey Dickerson – Became a free agent
Projected Starting Lineup
George Springer, CF
Bo Bichette, SS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
Teoscar Hernandez, DH
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF
Randal Grichuk, RF
Cavan Biggio, 2B
Danny Jensen, C
Santiago Espinal, 3B
Projected Starters
Jose Berrios, SP
Kevin Gausman, SP
Hyun Jin Ryu, SP
Alek Manoah, SP
Ross Stripling, SP
2022 Projected Record: 89-73
2022 Outlook
The Blue Jays lost some key contributors from last season in Cy Young Winner Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien, and Stevan Matz. They added SP Kevin Guasman to help fill the void of Ray and Matz.
They are the 3rd ranked projected offense in 2022 led by four players projected in the top 100: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, and Tesoscar Hernandez. They are hoping for a healthy season from George Springer to fill some of the production lost from Semien.
Their pitching staff has four guys ranked inside the top 100 led by: Kevin Guasman, Jose Berrios, Alek Manoah, and Hyun Jin Ryu.
This wraps up the AL East and the start of our MLB division previews. Future divisions will be coming soon to help with upcoming drafts!
All data is by Underdog Fantasy and can be available on their website here.
https://underdognetwork.com/other/downloadable-fantasy-baseball-pick-by-pick-data-from-the-dinger
All information regarding projected standings, stats, and rosters is from Fangraphs.com here is a link
https://www.fangraphs.com/
