Week 5 is the most polarizing DFS and Draft slate of the 2026 season. There is one game that stands so far above the rest in these formats. There are multiple injury situations condensing ownership around another small subset of plays, particularly on DraftKings. There are potential weather issues in some of the other appealing but less popular games, possibly shrinking the player pool even further. So how do we beat thousands of opponents when everyone is honed in on the same things?
Let’s dig in.
Slate Overview
Everything about this slate starts (and possibly ends) with the Lions/Cardinals game. The game has a total 9 points higher than the 2nd highest game on the slate. The Lions defense has been handing out fantasy points like candy to opposing offenses, and the Cardinals haven’t been much better defensively. Both offenses are pretty consolidated, with 4 weapons producing nearly all the yardage for the Lions and not too dissimilar for the Cardinals. Depending upon your ownership source, something like 6 of the top 9 players in projected ownership on DraftKings are from this game and 7 of the top 12. Even the couple options not in that top 12 are drawing enough interest that you’re still not *really* getting different from the field.
In the sim tools I like to look at, basically every piece of this game is showing as “over owned”. But they all still carry very strong raw points and point per dollar projections. We do have some other strong PP/$ options in other games, but it’s not particularly easy to make up the ground in raw points across an entire lineup without any parts of that game.
So, how do we make teams that can actually win tournaments given all of our opponents are using this same information and honing in on the same stuff? I think if we take a look at what optimals are spitting out and both the chalk pieces and chalk constructions it will give us a better idea of how to answer that question.
Optimals & Chalk
Like each week, I ran 50 lineups with no restrictions in RotoGrinders LineupHQ, which is where I like to start to get a gist for what is popping in “optimal lineups”. Here was the top projected lineup on DraftKings:
This optimal is the best summary of this slate I can give. No Jeanty, so Mike Washington is way too cheap and in every optimal. No Kyle Monangai, so D’Andre Swift is way too cheap and in there too. You have a variety of cheap WRs plug in that project way too strong for their price given some injuries (Dohnte Meyers, Roman Wilson, Antonio Williams, Tre Harris), and they allow you to get some combination of Gibbs, Amon-Ra, McBride and Wilson. And of course, Jacoby Brissett at QB. If not Brissett, then Goff.
As with every week, I like to analyze these trends across “optimal lineups” to get a gist for not just who is going to be popular individually, but how people are generally going to construct their lineups.
For example, here is the 2nd highest projected optimal of the week. You see the minor pivot down from Amon-Ra in order to be able to fit Wilson. These two types of structures are going to be overwhelmingly popular in a variety of different permutations. It’s often tempting to use the “I’ll just get different somewhere else” methodology to convince yourself because you played one or two pivots that you were “unique” or “different”. But this is an example where it’s pretty misleading. Technically, yes, you will not be duped if you swap two out of the optimal for two low owned players. But you have so much overlap and so much total ownership in the lineup, you’re just coin flipping against a million other teams, except you have the worse projected plays by quite a bit. That’s not exactly what I’d call getting your money in good in top heavy tournaments.
Something that I do think is notable here that we’ll also touch on a bit more later is that some plays that would have been very popular before some of this injury news have plummeted in ownership. Whether that be Chase Brown, Jaylen Warren or a variety of other plays, there are some spots that do still project well, but they’ve lost a good deal of ownership over the course of the week.
Tournament Angles
As much as I want to start with a crazy tournament take like I usually do, it would probably be malfeasance if I didn’t start with Lions/Cardinals game. Things got even more consolidated on Saturday with the reports that Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to be traded, and thus inactive for this one. Hilariously given Marv’s prospect profile and draft capital, this really doesn’t move the needle much. He’s been effectively a low volume sacrificial X for a dink and dunk Cardinals offense. Kendrick Bourne elevates to a full route share player who moves into the slot in 3 WR sets, but the most interesting angle of the Marv stuff for me is that, just for this week, I think we could see a lot of routes out of Elijah Higgins. The Cardinals WR4 is *probably* Jalen Brooks, and TE3 Hunter Long is injured. Higgins has run the most routes after McBride/Wilson/Marv/Bourne. I don’t mean to sit here and flag plant Elijah Higgins – that’s not what’s happening. But I think if you do want to lean into the crazy ownership of this game, Higgins could be a way to get off the beaten path, alongside Kendrick Bourne. But this will also funnel even more targets to Wilson and McBride, as if they needed any more reason to be excited for them. It does, however, make me a smidge squeamish about the explosiveness of the Cards offense. They lost tackle Paris Johnson to IR, and Jacoby Brissett has been very bad against pressure. The Lions do only one thing well on defense, and that’s pressure the QB, which I do think they can do here.
I also just have some concerns about the Cardinals gross offense even in this spot. Jacoby Brissett is last in the NFL among qualified starters in YPA. Dead last. Cooper Rush was better in his 2 starts. He has a 6.6 aDOT, which is near the bottom of the league alongside the Bo Nix’s of the world. And Marvin Harrison was his downfield option with a 15.5 aDOT. Don’t get me wrong, he’s going to score fantasy points against this defense, and Michael Wilson and Trey McBride are going to get so many targets that they are not going to fail. But we want big games, especially at these ownerships and these prices, and there are a few more flies in the ointment than I think meet the eye. If I knew Jeremiyah Love was going to have his Week 3 role, he would make for a super appealing tournament option given that the Lions run defense has also been poor, but I don’t see how it’s anything other than a split with he and Tyler Allgeier. If Love somehow doesn’t play, then Allgeier is a smash.
I am far, far more comfortable with the Lions side. The Cardinals are also missing key pieces in the secondary and have been a bottom 6 defense (EPA/play). They do play 80% zone defense and the 2nd highest rate of 2 high in the league, which makes this a smash spot for the trio of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs in the passing game. Jameson Williams can, of course, hit big plays on anyone, and the Cards have given up explosives, but he has historically been a better option against more single high looks. It gives me a sick feeling in my stomach to type this, but I do tend to lean towards Amon-Ra and LaPorta over Gibbs. Gibbs can nuke against anyone, so I’m not predicting a bad game, but the Cardinals have actually been stout against the run, with the 2nd best run defense in EPA/play allowed.
That’s enough words on that game, but clearly it’s important, especially to figure out some potential angles to how this thing maybe goes differently than ownership would dictate.
This is a huge caveat, but if the weather holds, I think the Commanders/Giants game has sneaky shootout written all over it. If the weather is bad, ignore this, but these are two bad defenses with some condensed target trees. The Commanders in particular present a lot of opportunity for Isaiah Likely and Malik Nabers if Jameis Winston can get them the football. I particularly love this spot for Likely. The Commanders have been absolutely torched by tight ends, and not even good ones. Likely leads the team in route participation and target share both for the season and with Jameis at the helm. He also leads all NFL TEs in targets per route and percentage of team targets, and he’s fresh off a game with 12 targets on 29 Jameis pass attempts. The Commanders are a pass-funnel defense that has blitzed at the 2nd-highest rate in the league, and they play almost entirely zone behind it. Likely’s fantasy points per route take a jump against zone coverage, and in particular against two-high, which Washington predominantly runs. It’s a good spot for Nabers as well, assuming he’s healthy, given the pass funnel nature of this defense.
On the other side, it sounds like Terry McLaurin is going to be good to go (check inactives Sunday morning), but Stefon Diggs is out. That has me super excited for rookie Antonio Williams here. He didn’t pop in the box score last week with a 3rd string QB, but Jayden Daniels is back, and he was a near full route participation player who tied for the team lead in targets with 8 against the Colts. I don’t want to overlook Terry without Diggs though, either.
The Bengals draw the Dolphins, and unfortunately outside of Chase Brown this is a huge if/then type situation. If neither of Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins play, it’s total wheels up for Dohnte Meyers. He had already taken the WR3 job without Andre Iosivas, but the former CFL legend has some serious juice as a pass catcher, and at minimum would have a high floor as the de facto WR1 on a Joe Burrow offense against a poor pass defense. If one of either Chase or Tee play, they clearly elevate to a top WR on the slate. I’m a smidge concerned about Tee’s health because he has duped us in the past even when active, but I think the ceiling would be too great to deny. Chase Brown is still probably my favorite play here. He has carried a high floor because of his awesome fantasy role in this elite offense so far, but the matchups have been rough and the TD luck has been bad. This is one of those spots where he can put up a monster week, especially with the Bengals defense playing better and injuries at WR. Mike Gesicki is only a play for me if both Chase and Tee are out given his route participation in positive game scripts with those guys healthy.
Again, check the weather here, but this is a smash spot for the Steelers offense. We also need to check on Rico Dowdle’s status. It sounds like he is going to return this week, which puts a damper on workhorse Jaylen Warren. But I tend to think it’s still another really strong role for Warren here in Dowdle’s first game back, and he’s still near the top of the list of RBs for this week. The Colts are a bottom 6 run defense who also have poor coverage linebackers, and Warren is a great receiving back. But there’s no Michael Pittman, and I’m not sure that isn’t an upgrade for the Steelers offense. DK Metcalf is still boom bust, but more Roman Wilson and Germie Bernard might be a very good thing here. We also probably see plenty of Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington, which I think is good for Aaron Rodgers. Wilson is my favorite play of the group, at least on DraftKings, but I think it’s a sneaky blow up spot. He’s a full time player without Michael Pittman, and he’s been targeted at least 5 times in every game this season. Wilson has run the majority of his routes from the slot (61%), which is critical in a matchup with the Colts. They have allowed the 2nd-highest yards per route run to slot receivers this season (and the 11th lowest to outside WRs). I’m very intrigued by a Steelers stack as a pivot off the chalk, assuming the weather hold, and Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs or Tyler Warren make for even more contrarian bring backs.
Some other quick hitters:
The Patriots are missing nearly every defensive back on their roster, and Ashton Jeanty does not seem like he’s going to play. Mike Washington Jr. is going to catch all the steam, and the Patriots gave a ton of attention to Dalton Kincaid last week, so I expect them to do the same to Brock Bowers. But Bowers is so good, and Klint Kubiak can scheme up Tre Tucker and Michael Mayer here. Mack Hollins was also placed on IR for the Pats, which would probably make Romeo Doubs chalk in any other week, but he won’t be this week. To be clear, I’m not saying I dislike Mike Washington because I very much do, but I’m looking for some tournament angles here and the pass game is very interesting.
Another week, and another instance of me repeating that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is awesome. The Niners defense schematically takes away the middle of the field, so it will be an interesting little wrestling match, but the Niners defense is still in rough shape. Seattle has also been the one defense to completely have Brock Purdy and the Niners offense’s number over the years.
D’Andre Swift is chalky in DFS, but he’s arguably my favorite RB of the week. The Bears run game is dominant, he’s underpriced for his role without Kyle Monangai, and the matchup is strong. The Packers run defense sits 24th in the league in EPA/play allowed despite a few cushy matchups, and they particularly struggle with zone runs. They have allowed more than 5 YPC on zone runs this season, and that’s the staple of the Ben Johnson run game (more than 70% zone runs). The Packers also lost Edgerrin Cooper to injury last week on defense.
Flag Plants
Often times, a lot of touts, including myself, will give this lengthy list of all these different plays and options for a DFS slate. I get it, but at the end of the day I also think it’s important to specifically communicate your actual favorite plays. So, here’s a list of my actual flag plants for this week. I think they apply to pretty much every format and every site, with just the TE position in your draft games being a smidge different.
QB – Jameis Winston, Aaron Rodgers (both weather pending)
RB – D’Andre Swift
WR – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Roman Wilson
TE – Isaiah Likely
But if you did want to ask me about some of my other favorite tournament options (all positions), these would be those guys.
Additional Core
QB – Kirk Cousins
RB – Jaylen Warren, Chase Brown
WR – Antonio Williams, Romeo Doubs
TE – Sam LaPorta
Let’s get it.
