Week 4 & Season-to-date Recap
Had a negative week in Week 4, with a couple close calls and an especially bad read on the Ravens. Head into Week 5 up 6.055 units on the season. I’m getting this out a little earlier this week because there are a couple spots I really want to pounce on immediately before the market moves.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 11-15 (-5.5 units)
- Props
- 34-21 (+11.555 units)
- Total
- 45-36 (+6.055 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Make sure to check back later in the week for updates, especially in the prop section, as those do not generally come out until later in the week, at least the full menu. Every time we make an update, we will send out a post on twitter, as well as a notification in discord. If you are reading this, don’t worry, you have access to the premium discord! Just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord” if you’re not already in there.
Week 5 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET @ CIN | Lions -10 | -110 | 365 | 1 | The Bengals basically admitted to quitting in their pathetic Monday Night Football loss to the Broncos. Sure, they get to go back home, and the Lions have to leave the dome, but the Lions' offense is going to name their score against this woeful Bengals defense no matter where the game is played, and the Lions' defense is much improved this season as they've gotten healthier. |
| 2 | DET @ CIN | Lions o29.5 points | -118 | FD | 3 | The Bengals basically admitted to quitting in their pathetic Monday Night Football loss to the Broncos. Sure, they get to go back home, and the Lions have to leave the dome, but the Lions’ offense is going to name their score against this woeful Bengals defense no matter where the game is played. The Lions are averaging 34 points per game through 4 games, despite the 13-point outing against the Packers in Week 1. They also never take their foot off the gas in these spots, consistently putting up huge scores on inferior opponents. |
| 3 | DET @ CIN | Lions o34.5 points | 220 | FD | 0.5 | Laddering Lions team total |
| 4 | DET @ CIN | Lions o39.5 points | 480 | FD | 0.25 | Laddering Lions team total |
| 5 | DET @ CIN | Lions o41.5 points | 700 | FD | 0.25 | Laddering Lions team total |
| 6 | DAL @ NYJ | Over 47.5 | -104 | FD | 1 | Cowboys games should probably never have a total this low. Even without CeeDee Lamb, they can really score, and they’ve passed at a 67% rate on the season. The Jets defense has been shockingly bad so far, sitting 3rd worst in the league in EPA/play allowed. One of only two defenses that have been worse is on the other side - the Cowboys. The Jets’ run-heavy offense is a concern, but both offenses should be hyper-efficient here, which should create a bunch of points. |
| 7 | TEN @ ARI | Under 41.5 | -110 | MGM | 1 | These two offenses are a mess, making the under a great look in Week 5. The Titans have scored just 51 total points through 4 games, and they have yet to exceed 282 total yards of offense in a game. Their defense is exploitable, but the Cardinals offense is extremely flawed. I've mentioned this since before Week 1, but they simply have no offensive juice. They have no speed or big-play weapons, so even if they are scoring points, they have to dink-and-dunk their way down the field on sustained drives, which keeps the clock running. |
Week 5 Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back on Sunday mornings, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Sunday morning.
| Props | Game | Prop | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL/NYJ | Garrett Wilson o65.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | The Cowboys have the worst defense in the NFL, but their offense is good enough to continue to push teams to score. The Jets want to run, but when they threw, it's to Wilson. He leads the NFL in target share, and has gone over this number in 3 of 4 games. |
| 2 | DET/CIN | David Montgomery o11.5 rushing attempts | -129 | DK | 1 | The matchup is good enogh for DMont to have a big, high volume game here against the woeful Bengals, but I'm believing in the narrative street this week. DMont is from Cincy, but he's never played there in his NFL career. It's also the first time his sister will get to see him play after being paralyzed in a tragic car accident. Dan Campbell is the perfect coach for this type situation, and the matchup doesn't get any better. |
| 3 | DET/CIN | David Montgomery o53.5 rushing yards | -114 | FD | 1 | The matchup is good enogh for DMont to have a big, high volume game here against the woeful Bengals, but I'm believing in the narrative street this week. DMont is from Cincy, but he's never played there in his NFL career. It's also the first time his sister will get to see him play after being paralyzed in a tragic car accident. Dan Campbell is the perfect coach for this type situation, and the matchup doesn't get any better. |
| 4 | CLE/MIN | Jordan Mason u66.5 rushing yards | -135 | MGM | 1 | The Browns run defense has shut down every opponent on the year outside of a couple good Jahmyr Gibbs runs last week, and the Vikings are certainly not the Lions on offense. They're also missing multiple starting offensive linemen for this game. |
