Week 4 NFL Blueprint – DFS & Drafts

Slate Overview

One of the beautiful things about about these DFS and Draft games is how unique the puzzle is each week. Last week, if you read this piece, you heard over and over the strength of the top projected plays. There are levels to “chalk” both from a raw ownership perspective and an *efficient* ownership perspective. Jordan Mason at $5,400 on DK at home against the Bengals can be “chalk” and also under-owned (which ended up being the case). He can be 100% drafted on Underdog and Drafters and still underpriced.

On weeks like last week, my personal goal is to figure out the best teams that fit around those strongly projected plays, whether that be using our ball knowing, the sims or old school leverage plays (or some combo of those!). But last week is a bit more of a rarity, especially this early in the season. There are certainly some very good plays in Week 4, but we have more of the traditional wide open slate this week in all formats.

There isn’t a total standout game to stack/get exposure to, so the key to the slate for me is where we hone in on our game exposures, and I think this is where we can find our biggest leverage. You can certainly play some very talented and high upside RBs into difficult matchups at lower ownership, but I’m not sure it’s totally necessary. We’ll get to it in the positional breakdown, but you’ll also see here in just a sec that the chalk is quite a bit more fragile than last week and maybe any other week so far this season.

The Chalk

Here are the currently projected highest owned players at each position, c/o RotoGrinders (I expect Ken Walker to make his way into that RB chalk fwiw):

DraftKings

• QB – Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts
• RB – Ashton Jeanty, Christian McCaffrey, Omarion Hampton
• WR – Puka Nacua, Drake London, Nico Collins
• TE – Tyler Warren, David Njoku
• DST – Falcons, Patriots

Fanduel

• QB – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson
• RB – Christian McCaffrey, Ashton Jeanty, Cam Skattebo
• WR – Puka Nacua, Tetairoa McMillan, Nico Collins
• TE – Tyler Warren, Travis Kelce
• DST – Texans, Falcons

QB

We’ve got the elites back on the slate (sans Jayden Daniels), and they are both in high upside spots that make them a priority. It’s always more difficult to fit them on DraftKings than in your drafts or on Fanduel, but I’d be lying if I said it was all that difficult. They’re also less popular on DraftKings which is very appealing. One of my favorite things about this week is that we can target some other games with condensed passing attacks/offenses, but we can still play one of Lamar or Allen and get a bit of double benefit. One of those two could absolutely nuke the slate, but we can also attack teams like the Rams (and others) where the QB isn’t super fantasy friendly. You can sort of have your cake and eat it too in that regard. If the Saints can push the Bills at all, Allen can post a monster line here, especially given the fact the Saints have operated as a pretty big pass funnel so far and the field may gravitate a bit more to James Cook because of the projected game script as big favorites.

That being said, I do still prefer Lamar to Allen personally. The Chiefs defense has been just mediocre, and Lamar has had his way with them in the past. They play a large amount of man coverage, which elevates his rushing upside, and the Ravens have their backs up against the wall after a 1-2 start.

If we move away from those two studs, you’ll notice Jalen Hurts showing up as DK chalk. I get it, it’s Jalen Hurts. But even after that big second half last week, I don’t believe the Eagles have all of the sudden changed their identity to become more aggressive through the air. And this may not be the best spot for it anyway, as Todd Bowles and his pressure defense have owned Hurts historically. The Eagles pass game makes for a really appealing tournament play when they’re low owned, but they’re generating some ownership this week, and I just don’t want to play into that ownership when we have such appealing alternatives.

Justin Herbert is one of those more appealing options. The Chargers pass game has been incredible. As much as I love Omarion Hampton (which we will get to in the next section), the Chargers pass game is what their offense is built around. You can certainly play Hampton with Herbert, but Herbert has been outstanding from a real life perspective and has multiple viable stacking partners against a poor Giants defense. If the TDs move to Herbert for a week, he can post a nuclear game.

After those elite options, there are several cheaper options that are absolutely targetable in all of these formats, even if the studs are more of the priority. Geno Smith and Caleb Williams are both in a potential shootout game with poor defenses. Michael Penix was a disaster last week against Carolina, but this Washington matchup is very exploitable. I will say, Geno’s ownership continues to rise over the week, especially on DK, while Jeanty’s is lowering. Daniel Jones certainly has fantasy upside at his price, but I do still believe in this Rams defense generally. I am more of a proponent of the Colts pass catchers than Jones. I love Nico Collins this week, and he could certainly bring CJ Stroud along for the ride here against a bad Titans defense.

There are a lot of appealing plays here, which is why we talked about maybe not playing into as much ownership here as last week with that Bears game.

RB

Last week we simply had chalk, namely Jordan Mason, that I just didn’t really think was fade-able. And then he ends up coming in at a criminally low ownership number because far too many people convinced themselves to fade him. We don’t have any RB options like that this week.

So I actually want to start with my favorite tournament option that is going to inevitably fail, and I’ll tilt about it on Sunday. But I’m playing TreVeyon Henderson in all formats. I want to be in before the breakout happens when his price will rise and the ownership will too. It could all be BS, but the Pats played him on more than 70% of snaps in the 2nd half last week, and then he was the “starting” RB in practice this week. It’s the Patriots, and I don’t trust them, but all this combined with an elite matchup with the Panthers defense is too good to pass up here for me.

If I had to pick a favorite RB play overall, it would be Omarion Hampton. He’s far less sneaky than Henderson, but that’s ok. We don’t have to play contrarian options at every spot, and the injury to Najee Harris is a huge deal. The Giants have been one of the worst defenses in football so far, and the Chargers didn’t even add a RB to the roster. Hampton has a workhorse profile, and he showed it with 7 targets last week and a goal line rushing touchdown. He’s technically popular, but I don’t think he’s anywhere near as owned as he should be.

One stance that I am making this week, also in all formats, is being light on the superstar spend ups at the position. Yes, Saquon, Henry, Bijan, Gibbs and JT can nuke a slate even in bad matchups. But they don’t stand out far enough above the cheaper options for me this week, and I’m really looking to spend up at some other positions.

I started the week not interested in Ashton Jeanty because he was projecting to be so popular, but that ownership has lowered as the week has gone on, and this is a better spot than he’s had so far. Per Sam Hoppen, the Raiders have faced the 2nd, 4th and 6th ranked defenses in yards before contact per rush allowed. Obviously, part of that is facing the woeful Raiders offensive line. But the Bears rank 2nd worst in the league in that metric and they are 26th in defensive rushing success rate. I’m not sure the Raiders can get a push on anyone, but Jeanty has done all his work running uphill with poor OL play. If he can actually get some room to run, this might be the real breakout game.

I am almost never a Kyren Williams guy, but the Colts have the 3rd worst EPA/play allowed to opposing rushing games. And they played the Dolphins, Broncos and Titans. As much as I love Puka and Davante, it might just be the Kyren spot with McVay at the sticks.

Finally, I hate the spot so much because the Chargers defense is awesome, and the Giants are bad with a rookie QB in his first start. However, the Cam Skattebo profile is elite for fantasy. Tyrone Tracy is out, and Skatt has ALL the high value touches in this offense. He can rack up targets and he’ll get the goal line work with his bruising style. He’s too cheap in all formats even in a rough matchup, and maybe Dart will be an instant huge upgrade to the offense.

WR

Last week was fairly straightforward at WR, but this week is more wide open. If we start at the top, Puka Nacua and Nico Collins are in a tier of their own for me. This is the first really good spot for Nico, and the Texans are 0-3 with a sputtering offense. He’s all they have, and while he’s not slipping through the cracks, he might not be getting enough hype. The same can be said for Puka, who is simply the best WR in fantasy. The Colts pass defense has been better than their run defense, but look at who they’ve played. If Puka ran a little better on touchdowns, he’d be the 1.01 in drafts every week and the highest priced player on DFS slates. But some bad TD luck keeps his price and ownership in check. Whenever he finally has a 2 TD game, he’s going to absolutely nuke the slate.

I’m going right back to the Zay Flowers well this week, too. I discussed my love for Lamar and the Ravens, and Zay is still the alpha we thought he was even after a down game against the Lions.

It’s also not just Puka in that Rams pass game. Davante Adams has an elite role. It’s just those two in the pass game, and part of why Puka hasn’t scored TDs is because Davante has 5x the red zone and end zone targets. He’s still a baller, and he’s going to have some mega games this year. Clearly, the Rams are a priority, and the nice thing is you don’t need to play Stafford to get your Rams exposure.

On the opposite side of those Rams, the Colts pass catchers are extremely appealing. It’s not a slam dunk spot against the Rams defense, but Hurts and co. did just carve them up, and Alec Pierce is out for this game. The Colts should be playing from behind (imo), and they’re affordable in every format. Probably alongside Hampton, Henderson and the Rams, the Colts pass catchers are my “flag plant” of the week. JT and Tyler Warren are drawing most of the ownership, but Pittman, Downs and AD Mitchell look really appealing. Pittman is my favorite in drafts, but Downs and Mitchell are my favorite on DK/FD with pricing factored in. Downs is still really good, but he’s a slot only player. That means when the Colts are winning games, he’s not playing as many snaps and thus not running as many routes. This sets up to be a game he runs more routes, and he can rack up catches in a trailing script. Mitchell is more boom-bust, but the boom could be very real if he can convert some big plays in an expanded version of the Alec Pierce role.

Some other spots that really jump out to me are Drake London, Ricky Pearsall and Brian Thomas Jr. I’ve been critical of BTJ’s play thus far, but he’s going to have big games this year. The Niners lost Nick Bosa to injury, and Liam Coen will get BTJ going soon enough. The same could be said for Drake London. Penix has held him back, but Washington just got torched by Tre freaking Tucker. We just have to Men in Black flashy thing last week’s Panthers game from our memory and trust in London in this spot. Pearsall is also just the alpha at a reasonable price against a bad Jags defense. It doesn’t hurt that Brock Purdy is back.

TE

I’m generally a big fan of being different at TE. Not just because being unique is a good thing, but because the position is lower scoring AND the weekly chalk helps dictate the structure our opponents use to build their teams. If people are spending up, that means they’re spending down elsewhere and vice versa.

Tyler Warren looks great, but a road matchup with the Rams isn’t exactly the “I want to jam this guy as chalk” spot we dream of. David Njoku is a non-starter for me until we see something to make us believe he’s worthy of heavier ownership.

I don’t know what Juwan Johnson has to do to get ownership, but I’ll keep enjoying it. I get the Saints stink, but they throw a ton, play at a lightning pace, and they’ll like be losing again this week. He has arguably the best role of any fantasy tight end right now, he’s still affordable and our opponents don’t care.

Brock Bowers is also super appealing at reasonable ownership. It’s a good spot against the Bears and Michael Mayer has a concussion. If Bowers’ role expands, we can get the Bowers we were hoping for when we drafted him all summer. We just have to hope the knee is fine.

I liked Tyler Conklin last week, but it’s clear he’s just in a rotation with some jags and Oronde Gadsden earned more work. He’s a super sneaky punt with the coaches saying he earned more work AND him already earning serious volume on limited snaps.

A similar but very different option is Cole Kmet. Colston Loveland is out, the Raiders are a mega pass funnel and now Kmet should run most of the routes. But like Juwan, no one cares! His ownership and price in drafts hasn’t moved at all.

Stacks

Reiterating here that I am focused pretty heavily in all formats on the elite QBs, but there’s a small caveat. The Rams are a huge priority, but I see no reason to play Matthew Stafford. I actually feel similarly about the Colts, but Daniel Jones’ rushing makes him more viable.

• Lamar Jackson + Zay Flowers or Mark Andrews
• Justin Herbert + Ladd McConkey or Quentin Johnston and/or Omarion Hampton (Oronde Gadsden honorable mention)
• Josh Allen + Keon Coleman or Dalton Kincaid
• Caleb Williams + Rome Oduzne + Cole Kmet

Core Plays

DraftKings

Fanduel

Drafts – Battle Royale (UD) & Drafters