Week Two was not a great week for me, even as I pivoted off my two favorite games due to weather on Sunday morning (Bears/Vikings and Jets/Packers). I personally didn’t get onto the right pivots, even as I gravitated to the Cowboys/Commanders game and the Panthers. What’s interesting is that in analyzing teams after each of the last two weeks, I probably made some slightly better decisions in Week Two than I did in Week One, but the results were the opposite. Gotta love the chaos of the NFL.
Slate Overview
I don’t want to sound like a broken record, but we are really playing a similar game in the early weeks of the season. Where are our opponents buying or selling the players and situations that have changed in this new season? Take Parker Washington for example. If you have been around Spike Week, you know that we have been of the belief that Parker is a star receiver that was underpriced and underowned to start the year. After a dominant Week One and almost no price increase, he was still not popular in Week Two against the Broncos, coming in around 10% in small field, high stakes tournaments. Now, in Week Three, we are seeing ownership in the top 4-5 WRs on DraftKings. The projections and the field have (rightfully) adjusted the priors on Parker, so that early edge doesn’t quite exist anymore.
But there are always going to be some situations that the projections are buying or selling that we can try to exploit. We will get to them more later, but I’m not here to say the Panthers are some offensive juggernaut all of the sudden. They are not. But Jaylen Warren is going to be extremely popular without Rico Dowdle, yet Chuba Hubbard without Jonathon Brooks won’t be, despite probably a better matchup in a better offense. Parker Washington, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are going to be very popular, but Tetairoa McMillan and Ladd McConkey won’t be even though they have been equally outstanding to start the season. Dalton Kincaid has been absolutely dominant and has some banged up teammate pass catchers, and he is drawing no ownership compared to Schultz, Gadsden, etc.
It’s not to say that the popular guys are “bad chalk” or shouldn’t be popular. It’s just to say that with only two games under our belts, there are still going to be spots the field gravitates more to than other similar type bets. I think that’s where we have the greatest opportunity to separate from the field in these early weeks.
Optimals & Chalk
Like each week, I ran 50 lineups with no restrictions in RotoGrinders LineupHQ, which is where I like to start to get a gist for what is popping in “optimal lineups”. Here was the top projected lineup on DraftKings:
Across all the top optimals, there are a few interesting trends.
- Tyler Shough makes the top optimal, but Josh Allen is represented as well.
- It is another Dalton Schultz chalk week at TE, but some 2 TE teams with Oronde Gadsden show up too, especially on Josh Allen teams.
- Unsurprisingly, the Lions are very well represented, with Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown everywhere.
- Jaylen Warren is in every optimal, with 2 spend down WRs.
- No Ken Walker showing here (eyes emoji), but we do see Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce, so there is some Chiefs love, even without Mahomes or Walker.
I like to analyze these trends across “optimal lineups” to get a gist for not just who is going to be popular individually, but how people are generally going to construct their lineups.
There’s of course nothing wrong with Tyler Shough and the Saints passing game, but I do think it’s at least important to note that they have put up big games in crazy 2nd half comeback game scripts. The Raiders are plucky, but the likelihood of another jailbreak script (Saints are home favorites as opposed to big road dogs the first two games) is pretty low. That doesn’t mean they won’t be solid, I expect they will, but it’s just a wildly different situation this week than what we’ve seen so far from their offense fantasy wise.
There’s also this mid-tier at every position that’s being totally left behind in ownership because of the texture of the slate. Gibbs, Amon-Ra, JSN and Josh Allen are so expensive that it forces you out of a lot of the 6-7k range. And when Jaylen Warren, Garrett Wilson and Parker Washington soak up that ownership, there’s not much left for lots of other good plays.
Lastly, you notice the highest total game of the week with major shootout potential isn’t showing up much here. Cowboys-Ravens is a little quirky for DFS purposes with the Zay Flowers health concerns, but outside of CeeDee Lamb and a little Derrick Henry, you’re not going to be playing into much ownership in the best game of the week. Maybe the terrible field in Brazil will hold them back, but that’s not a bet I’d be willing to make.
Tournament Angles
I feel so exceptionally uncomfortable leading this section with the Panthers, but here we are. Bryce Young has been outstanding, albeit in two easy matchups up thus far. But it’s not just some flukey performance against bad defenses. The Panthers have the 3rd highest PROE in the NFL, throwing heavily even with sizable leads last week. They have two receivers who consume 54% of the team’s targets in TMac and Coker (with a sprinkle of Darren Waller in the red zone). And now they have a consolidated backfield with Chuba Hubbard projecting for one of the largest backfield shares of the week. The Browns defense was better last week, but the Bucs offense has been putrid and left a lot of yards and points on the field. In Week One, the Jags made the Browns defense look like a middle school squad. I’m not at all projecting the Panthers to be an upper echelon offense, but I am willing to see if this start is more real than the field is, especially considering the offense is so consolidated to about 3.5 players that you have a lot of extra ways to win fantasy points wise even if they don’t score a huge number of points against the Browns.
As someone who played a lot of Derrick Henry last week, the Ravens 2nd half performance was a huge disappointment. But I’m more than willing to go back to that well against a Cowboys defense that is in ROUGH shape. They were probably not great to begin with, and they have suffered a myriad of injuries. The Zay Flowers health stuff throws a wrench into things, but you certainly can always play Derrick Henry. And if we get word that Zay is pretty limited or out, Rashod Bateman had 31% of the targets last week and 40% of the team’s air yards while playing 93% of snaps. The Ravens are missing LT Ronnie Stanley, but the Commanders OL was in rough shape last week too.
I do want to make sure it is clear that I am not downplaying the Jets/Lions game. There is no doubt in my mind that this game is “good chalk”. The Lions defense, specifically the injuries to the secondary, have put them back into “Coors Field” territory of fantasy football, especially at home in the dome. The Jets defense has been quite good through two games, but their secondary is still very unproven, especially when their only two opponents have been the Titans and the pathetic Packers (in bad weather). All of Gibbs, Amon-Ra, LaPorta and Jamo are appetizing here, and Garrett Wilson is a very clear target in a spot they are certainly going to be pushed to throw and squaring off with a defense that is 29th in EPA/play through two games. The Lions also play Cover 3 at the highest rate in the league, and Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell have soaked up 13 of 16 targets from Geno Smith when they’ve faced Cover 3 so far this year. Geno is also just $4.9k on DraftKings, and he can unlock some extra upside at other positions.
As a single entry, small field player, I admit it’s difficult for me to get to Josh Allen at his price on DraftKings, but if you have the salary, you should do it. He’s not going to run for 2 TDs every game, but he does lead the league in designed runs with 10. Most importantly, this is a smash matchup for he and the Bills passing game. The Chargers have been an extreme pass funnel defense thus far. They’re 6th in run defense EPA/play, and 24th in pass defense. When you pair that with the Bills PROE (2nd in the NFL) and aggressive downfield attack (highest aDOT in the NFL), it’s hard to envision a down Josh Allen game. The pass catchers always might be dwindling, leaving Dalton Kincaid as a glaring option at low ownership. He’s 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards and his route participation has jumped up to nearly 70% this season. With DJ Moore and Keon Coleman banged up, there’s even more room to grow for Kincaid this week in this spot. James Cook is in a bit rougher spot, but I’m not sure if matters when you are playing nearly every snap and getting every RB opportunity on this Bills offense. He’s super sneaky in tournaments, especially if the field assumes Allen will always steal the rushing TDs. On the other side, the Chargers are an abject disaster, but Ladd McConkey is somehow still producing efficiently. They’re going to need him here, and it appears he’s fully healthy, having practiced in full this week.
Some other quick hitters:
Despite what seemed like slander, the Saints pass game is *fine* here. Olave and Vele are going to keep having large target shares, but Ashton Jeanty looks great here. The Saints run defense has struggled, albeit in very tough matchups, and Jeanty is getting an eye popping, Ken Walker type workload in the early going.
Speaking of Ken Walker, I understand the workload isn’t going to sustain, but why does it have to against the Dolphins? He’s only projecting as about the 4th highest owned RB on the slate (Jeanty 5th, Henry 6th), so what if they just keep feeding him in a game where they can name their score?
I am a noted David Montgomery hater, and the 50/50 split with Woody Marks is not great through two games. But he’s completely unowned this week against a Colts team that is dead last in the NFL in EPA/play allowed on the ground. Maybe that’s just having played Henry and Walker, or maybe this is the perfect matchup to get DMont going and lean on the defense against the Colts without Alec Pierce.
I don’t have anything to add about Jaxon Smith-Njigba that you haven’t already heard. He’s absurd, the role is absurd, and the matchup is absurd. If you can fit him, play him.
I am a bit more skittish than some others on Kenyon Sadiq and Oronde Gadsden even with the injuries to their teammate TEs. They’ll certainly play more, but there are lots of TEs who will play plenty and are also talented. Jeremy Ruckert played a lot in the second half last week when Mason Taylor got hurt for the Jets, so if I had to pick between the two, I’d prefer Gadsden. And while Dalton Schultz has a nice floor and matchup, 17 of his 29 DK points came in the 4th quarter last week of a game where CJ Stroud attempted 53 passes, so I don’t expect that type of output when the game script doesn’t require such nonsense.
Lastly, the 49ers are going to score a boatload of points, Brock Purdy is playing like one of the best QBs in the league, and the Cards offense is good enough to push them. But they are another mid tier type team (aside from CMC) slipping through the cracks.
Flag Plants
Often times, a lot of touts, including myself, will give this lengthy list of all these different plays and options for a DFS slate. I get it, but at the end of the day I also think it’s important to specifically communicate your actual favorite plays. So, here’s a list of my actual flag plants for this week. I think they apply to pretty much every format and every site, with just the TE position in your draft games being a smidge different.
QB – Bryce Young, Josh Allen
RB – Ken Walker, Ashton Jeanty
WR – Tetairoa McMillan, Garrett Wilson
TE – Dalton Kincaid
But if you did want to ask me about some of my other favorite tournament options (all positions), these would be those guys.
Additional Core
QB – Geno Smith, Brock Purdy
RB – Chuba Hubbard, Derrick Henry
WR – Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashod Bateman (If Zay is out)
TE – Harold Fannin
Let’s have a helluva Week Three.
