Week One was oh so close to a monster week. With so many members of the flag plant/core coming through, from the super chalky Gibbs to Lamar/Zay stacks to the Bears/Panthers eruption and lock buttoning Ashton Jeanty. Even Parker Washington came through. It was an overall successful week, and we’ll see if we can build on it in Week Two.
Over the years, I’ve heard many say that Week Two is their favorite DFS week. It’s certainly in contention for mine. We still get to use all our knowledge from the summer grind, but we combine it with figuring out where our opponents are overly fixating or not fixating enough on what we saw in Week One.
Slate Overview
The pivot from Week One to Week Two is one of the funnier transitions in any area of fantasy sports. In Week One, we are taking some pretty huge and wild guesses about roles, coaching changes, defenses and more. Around here, since we are grinding the summer of fantasy football so hard, there are some potential angles that might not be appropriately accounted for in the projections across the industry. A lot of those angles went really well last week.
Then, in Week Two, we are doing something very similar, yet something very different. We are toeing this fine line between making sure we don’t overreact to a one game sample and also not under reacting to some very strong signals. Back in the old days of DFS and fantasy football, it would tend to be more of an edge to focus on not overreacting. But now in the age of projections and sims and everything else, I think there is often more of an edge in finding the spots where people aren’t appropriately reacting. The projections tend to hold firm to the larger sample for players, offenses and even defenses.
Clearly, we don’t want to just play every player or team that had big games in Week One. That would be silly. But finding the situations where the field is under reacting can, in my opinion, actually be the biggest edges now. Or sometimes there’s a bit of a combination of both. I will get to the Bears plenty here, but they seem like a bit of the shining example. They appeared set to take a huge leap on offense this summer. Ben Johnson talked about setting the scoring record, and it seemed as though they had a really poor defense that would facilitate more offensive output in year two of all these guys with Ben Johnson. That hit in an absolutely massive way last week, but the Bears offense had a bizarre runout. They scored 59 points, but the core receivers had subpar to terrible games. That makes it a bit weird to project this week, so even though pretty much everyone agrees the Bears are the “Coors Field” of fantasy football, no one feels very comfortable with any Bears pieces.
The Bears are just one example of this Week Two dichotomy, but there are plenty more, which we will get to after we check out what’s spitting out as the “optimal” plays.
Optimals & Chalk
Like last week, I ran 50 lineups with no restrictions in RotoGrinders LineupHQ, which is where I like to start to get a gist for what is popping in “optimal lineups”. Here was the top projected lineup on DraftKings:
Across all the top optimals, there are a few interesting trends.
- QB is a little divided amongst Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts mostly.
- Pay down at TE for Dalton Schultz with no Nico Collins.
- 3 RBs appear in basically all the top lineups – Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson.
- Spend up at at least one WR spot (mainly CeeDee Lamb and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, intereseting) and a couple cheaper WRs either with a real punt or some in that 5k range (DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin).
I like to analyze these trends across “optimal lineups” to get a gist for not just who is going to be popular individually, but how people are generally going to construct their lineups.
What both jumps out to me the most and makes me the most excited is a total lack of plays from some of what most would agree are the most exciting game environments. You notice I didn’t list anything relating to the Chicago Bears, and Justin Jefferson also doesn’t show up as much as one might think. There are no Green Bay Packers even though we saw dream route participation from Matthew Golden and Christian Watson.
This is just one projection source and changes will happen over the weekend with injury reports and final projection tweaks, but when I opened up this slate without any projections or ownership, my eyes fixated on the Bears/Vikings and Packers/Jets (yes, really) games. This goes for our draft games on Underdog and Drafters, too. Justin Jefferson is not cheap in drafts, but anything else you want to do in those two games is freely available in every draft.
The next most exciting game is almost certainly Cowboys/Commanders, and that game does appear to be getting a bit more love, at least in traditional DFS. But this is where I keep going back to the over/under reacting stuff. If the field is not all that excited for the Bears game, and they aren’t *that* excited for what we saw from the Packers with their tempo, pass rate and route participation, I really do feel like this week is a bit straightforward for where our most exploitable angles lie.
Tournament Angles
When it comes to the Bears, I really think this is the biggest exploitable angle of the week. We should have faith in Ben Johnson to score against this Brian Flores defense. This team just scored 59 points! The Flores defense is not an ideal matchup for the running backs, with his pressure helping slow down the run but also limiting their receiving upside as they stay in to protect the QB rather than run routes. I am absolutely down to buy the dip on Colston Loveland. He ran the most routes on the Bears, he moved all over the formation and the Bears have said he was the first read plenty of the time, but the game just went a bit awry for him for a variety of different reasons. They will get him the football this week. But schematically I think this has the makings of a Luther Burden eruption. He is one of the best YAC players in football, and that is exactly how you can beat the pressure packed Flores defense. Get the ball out into your dynamic playmaker’s hands and let him make magic happen with the ball. We just saw the Packers strike for multiple big plays (like Christian Watson) with this exact recipe, and I trust Ben Johnson to take advantage of that with his year two breakout receiver.
I also firmly believe that the Packers offense is quite a bit different this year. The exact pass rate is unlikely to sustain against a non-Brian Flores defense bringing the house every play, but the Packers threw the ball on 69% of their plays last week, good for 3rd in the NFL. They also played at a top 5 tempo and top 4 no huddle rate. But maybe more importantly was the consolidation of the Packers WR room. We figured after all the talk this summer about the roles for the WRs after Romeo Doubs heading to the Pats and trading Dontayvion Wicks to the Eagles that this would happen, but boy did it. Jayden Reed only ran 63% of the routes in Week One as just the slot receiver in 11 personnel primarily, but Matthew Golden ran almost every single route with Christian Watson not too far behind. Golden actually led the team in targets with 12 despite Watson’s big day, but both look set for another big game against a Jets secondary littered with unproven names who weren’t tested last week by Cam Ward and the Titans.
Alternatively, the Jets looked like the solid offense we expected with Geno at the helm in Week One, but they should be pushed a lot more here. They had the lowest pass rate in the league last week (38%!!), but this looks set to be more of a negative game script, which should ratchet up the volume for Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell. The Packers defense does not project to be anything special, either, and Wilson in particular had a huge target share (29%) in Week One.
Both the Cowboys and Commanders do really look set for significant bounce backs in Week Two. The Cowboys offense wasn’t terrible, but the Giants absurdly slow, ground and pound offense bled the clock so badly that the Cowboys had just 7 total possessions in the game, fewest in the league in Week One. The Commanders, meanwhile, faced a tough Eagles/Vic Fangio defense last week, and the Cowboys defense put forth one of the worst defensive performances of the week. The Cowboys passing game and Javonte Williams all pop here in all formats. I’m not overly excited for Jacory Croskey-Merritt given the late game fumble last week, but as a deep flyer in a spot like this, he at least has to make the list. I’m more excited for Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs and possibly even Antonio Williams with Chig Okonkwo injured.
It probably made more sense to do the Vikings right after the Bears, but I wanted to leave them for last. I’m not sure I can appropriately iterate how much I believe in this Bears “Coors Field” thing. The defense is one of the very worst in football. The offense might be the best in football. That combination creates a level of fantasy goodness for opponents that is unmatched in 2026. I understand having concerns about Aaron Jones‘ age or exact workload, but those concerns get alleviated when you are playing the Bears. Demond Claiborne and DeeJay Dallas are just not the type of players to steal significant (or high value) touches even if they do spell Jones to keep him fresh. He’s closer to an RB1 on the week for me than he is a fade, and given his ownership and name, I wanted to make sure to make that clear. Justin Jefferson is also my favorite WR of the week. Not only does he draw this Bears dream matchup, he also has feasted with Carson Wentz as his QB in his career. I do think the Bears will show him plenty of attention, which could open things up for TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison, similar to Jalen Coker and the Panthers TE trio last week. But JJ is still going to eat, it’s just a matter of to what degree.
Some other quick hitters:
Declan Doyle is going to feed Derrick Henry against a Saints defense that got shredded on the ground last week, but the only question is whether the WR injuries allow the defense to slow him down with extra attention. I still favor the Big Dog.
The Eagles still make me a bit nauseous with their pathetic offense, but Saquon Barkley should be able to succeed here with the putrid Titans on the other side. He’s no Henry or Bijan Robinson this week, but near the top of my RB list. I’m not so convinced Bijan gets that laughably monstrous workload again, and I’m not convinced the Panthers are as bad as the Bears made them look on defense, but Bijan is still the RB1 with his talent and workload.
Bucky Irving may not get the raw target volume of last week in a positive game script, but he certainly should find some success against the Browns defense with his role that alleviated all the Sean Tucker/Kenny Gainwell concerns from the offseason.
Lastly, I just want to mention Parker Washington. I genuinely believe he’s a star. He will not continue to be this price this season. The Jags offense has been one of the very best in the league with Trevor Lawrence playing like one of the best in the league since the midway point of last season. Denver is not a great matchup, despite their performance last week, but that should create more volume, if less efficiency, for Parker this week at no ownership and cheap prices. He also torched this Broncos defense last season for a huge game.
Flag Plants
Often times, a lot of touts, including myself, will give this lengthy list of all these different plays and options for a DFS slate. I get it, but at the end of the day I also think it’s important to specifically communicate your actual favorite plays. So, here’s a list of my actual flag plants for this week. I think they apply to pretty much every format and every site, with just the TE position in your draft games being a smidge different.
QB – Caleb Williams
RB – Aaron Jones
WR – Luther Burden, Justin Jefferson
TE – NONE
I do just want to add a note about the TE position. In DFS on DK and FD, I really think the position is very weak. Dalton Schultz should be extremely chalky, and while I get it, that does not seem like particularly fun tournament chalk. I do like taking the Trey McBride floor or the Colston Loveland bounce back in drafts, but if I can’t afford them in DFS, I think including TEs in whatever games or stacks you’re targeting make the most sense given the weakness of the position.
But if you did want to ask me about some of my other favorite tournament options (all positions), these would be those guys.
Additional Core
QB – Jordan Love, Jayden Daniels
RB – Derrick Henry, Bucky Irving
WR – Matthew Golden, Garrett Wilson, Parker Washington
TE – Colston Loveland, TJ Hockenson
Let’s have some fun in Week Two and improve upon a really strong start to the 2026 season.
