An amazing Week 1 comes to a close with Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle. After an exhilarating TNF and Main Slate, SNF was a bit boring, yet now we get more of an underlying storyline. Russell Wilson and the Broncos are 6.5 point favorites with a 43.5 over/under. Expect more of a slow-paced game with an emphasis in the run game. Touchdowns will be important. Underdog Fantasy released the Monday Night Melee tournament with a $5 entry point with a $10,000 Top Prize.
Broncos Country, Let’s Ride.
Draft Strategy for Week 1 Monday Night Football – Broncos @ Seahawks
Due to uncertainty with roles within these offenses, there are no clear top 3 picks. I have seen all of the top 5 go at various places. The top 5 include Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DK Metcalf, & Rashaad Penny.
This is primarily due to the low over/under and the fact both offenses went through major overhauls in the offseason. Based on the past, we can assume the Seahawks will try to slow the game down with Geno Smith as their quarterback and run the football. As for the Broncos, since they acquired Russell Wilson and new head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, we would expect their pass rate to increase
Projections have both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy playing in 2WR sets due to the offseason injury to Tim Patrick, if the past is any indication, the increased snap share for Jeudy will allow him to breakout this season. With increased QB play and an increased snap share, it wouldn’t be a bad thing to be overweight to him tonight. As for Sutton, he has both the bible narrative and pre-season reports showing that he and Russ are building really good chemistry. The wild card here is if KJ Hamler is healthy. If he is active and the Broncos use 3WR sets at an increased rate, expect the down-field connection with Russ and KJ to show up.
The talk of the offseason was based around Javonte Williams not being a workhorse back since the Broncos brought back Melvin Gordon III. If the concerns are accurate, Melvin Gordon as a 2nd or 3rd pick could have significant TD-upside.
Following the trade of Russell Wilson, the Seahawks traded for Drew Lock, who lost the preseason QB competition to Geno Smith. Geno is a traveling veteran, in which we can say we know what we are going to get from him. He prefers to play underneath and not force the ball into situations. If the Seahawks are trailing, this could lead Tyler Lockett to have slate-breaking upside. Additional concerns also come with Rashaad Penny, who is expected to not play on obvious passing downs. This leaves Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas to have immense upside as the last players drafted.
As stated in the Thursday article, it is most important, since only 12 players are selected in total (4 per team), you want your roster to tell a story. Think about how each individual player hits their ceiling outcome and what that means for players on their team vs. the other team. In this particular game with the low over/under, I would get different by saying the Seahawks have a good offense and are able to consistently move the football down the field. This would lead to their receivers having good games while also pushing the Broncos into a heavier passing script.
Top Plays for Drafts
- Javonte Williams – Workhorse upside if the reports are incorrect. Hyper-efficient regardless.
- Courtland Sutton – Potential #1 WR, can win in all 3 phases.
- Jerry Jeudy – Hyper-efficient player when on the field.
- DK Metcalf – Truly a bet on talent. Can break a long one anytime he has the ball in his hands
Players That Could Differentiate Your Lineup
- KJ Hamler – You shouldn’t be surprised if he catches a 50+ yard pass.
- Travis Homer – Pass-catching back for the team projected to lose.
- Noah Fant – Included as an integral part of the Russell Wilson trade, could be a target hog and has former 1st round pedigree
- Dee Eskridge – Potential #3 WR for the Seahawks.
- Marquise Goodwin – battling with Eskridge for #3 duties. Lightning fast.