A couple years ago for NBA Playoff Best Ball, I started this thought exercise where I went team by team to document how I *think* I want to approach each team in my drafts. Do I want to be overweight, underweight or neutral on this particular team?
You wouldn’t think that is something you really need to do, but I’ve found in drafting thousands of Best Ball teams over the years, especially for Playoff Best Ball, that you can end up clicking some players or teams in drafts that don’t really jive with your plan. Or you may see some gaps in your thoughts about the teams when it comes to actual drafting if you lay it all out next to each other, or you simply don’t end up with exposure that matches your thoughts on the Playoffs because you’re not tracking it at all.
Your brain says you love certain teams, but the prices on their players make it very difficult to build strong teams around them. Maybe those particular NBA teams have a positional weakness when paired together, or you may be forced into exposure to teams you don’t love if you target certain player combinations.
So, with just a few games left in the regular season, here is my outline from walking through every viable playoff team and setting goals for how I want to handle them in my Playoff Best Ball portfolio.
*If you want to get up to speed with NBA Playoff Best Ball strategy, check out this 2026 strategy piece for Underdog*
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Approaching Each Team for 2026 NBA Playoff Best Ball
The final playoff bracket is not yet 100% set, but it’s pretty close. For this exercise, I’ll be leaning on this bracket. Even if there are changes between the 3/6, 4/5 or play-in matchups, it should not change my thoughts much, if at all.
Eastern Conference
Pistons – The Pistons are a bit of a microcosm of the current Eastern Conference. They are the number one seed, and a rock solid team. They have an elite defense, they’re as physical as it gets, and they have a couple young studs leading their emergence (Cade, Duren). But they also have very serious flaws that are concerning for playoff basketball. First, Cade sufferred a collapsed lung a couple weeks ago and is being re-evaluated next week. It *sounds* like he’s going to be fine for the playoffs, but there’s still some uncertainty there and he will have to get re-acclimated after missing the home stretch of the season. But if we assume he’s healthy, they still have a severe lack of shooting on the perimeter, and they have to sort of choose defense or offense with their role players. The East is so weak that they are still going to be a pillar of my Easter conference builds, but I’m not putting all my chips on the number one seed here, despite the conference’s lack of opposition. Verdict – Overweight
Celtics – The Celtics were my pick to make the finals last year, and that certainly was a failure. Luckily the Pacers saved the day, but I’m going right back to the Celtics well in 2026. Jayson Tatum has returned, and I am utterly stunned at how good he looks. And that’s somehow not the most stunning part of the Celtics season, which is just how good they are despite purging the roster over the offseason. They essentially added an All-NBA player to a roster that was already 2nd in the East, and he’s fit in extremely well. They’re my pick to make the finals, and I plan to make them my highest owned team in the East. Verdict – Overweight
Knicks – Boy, this feels like a make or break playoffs for the Knicks, and I just don’t think this collection of players can live up to the lofty Knicks expectations and crack the finals. It’s a lineup that works well on paper or in NBA2K, but the real life basketball issues still haven’t been solved in two years. The way teams can stifle the Brunson/KAT two man game can get the offense stuck in mud. Mikal Bridges is too often a total non-factor offensively. Josh Hart’s lack of shooting can clog things up. And Brunson/KAT both being targets for opposing offenses when the Knicks are on defense. When the Knicks are really locked in and playing well, they look like a finals contender. But they’ve never put consistent stretches of games together where they look that way, despite strong overall metrics for the season. I do think this team is more “built for the playoffs”, and in a weak East, I am not writing them off, but they’re not going to be a pillar of my drafts. Verdict – Neutral
Cavs – In theory, a foursome of Mitchell, Harden, Mobley and Allen surrounded by some shooters (Strus, Merrill) and defenders (Ellis, Wade) seems like an awesome team. But the issues here both overall in the roster and specifically post-Harden trade as just too much for me to overcome. First, the defense is just not good enough. Mitchell/Harden are bad defenders so they need someone else to guard these apex predator wing types, but they don’t have any good options. Max Strus was guarding Luka Doncic in their recent matchup with the Lakers, for instance. NBA nerds will tell you Dean Wade is super important for this role as their best perimeter defender, and he’s been out, but if Dean freaking Wade is that important to your finals hopes, I think that is more telling than anything I can say here. Their two bigs are great players, but they can also get bullied by physical bigs on that end. O offense, they’re going to be able to score given their talent, but it has been clunkier than you’d hope. Lot of your turn, my turn with Harden/Mitchell, and that’s before we get to the infamous James Harden playoff track record. Verdict – Underweight (fade if I start feeling frisky)
Hawks – This is where we start to get into the “Can’t make the finals, but how important will they be to advance” teams. The Hawks just keep winning down the stretch, rocketing up to 5th in the standings. They lean heavily on their defense with 4 high level defenders in the starting lineup surrounding CJ McCollum, who has given a shocking jolt to their offense. They are likely to square off with a vulnerable Cavs team in round one, and that makes them both intriguing advancement pieces not only for the first round, but also for the second round if they can win that series against a shaky Cleveland squad. Verdict – Neutral, but favorite East advancement team
Sixers – The Sixers are the greatest theoretical sleeper team in the East, but theoretical is as far as I can go. With Embiid and Paul George healthy, they are clearly a more potent team, especially offensively. But this defense is still flat out not good enough no matter who is on the floor. They can absolutely win some playoff games with their offense, especially if they do draw this Knicks team with the above issues we outlined. So they have utility in our drafts, assuming they hang on to the 6 seed, regardless of whether they can win a playoff series. I do think they could upset the Knicks given the offensive firepower here, but expecting Joel Embiid to hold up over multiple weeks of playing every other day has to be one of the worst possible bets you could make, so I just don’t see a super deep run in the cards. Verdict – Neutral, but another strong advancement team.
*EDIT*
Latest Playoff Probabilities (see below) have the Raptors now with a higher probability for the 6 seed than the Sixers. I have moved the Raptors up a tick in our NBA Playoff Best Ball Rankings, but I do still prefer the 76ers slightly as an advance rate booster team, even if they are bit more likely to have to come through the Play-In now.
Play-In Teams (Raptors, Hornets, Magic, Heat) – My guess (like most others) is that we see the Raptors and Hornets from the play-in. Like everyone else, I want to see the Hornets get in because of how well they’ve played in the 2nd half. They are at the top of Net Rating in the NBA over the last 40 games, which is almost unfathomable. I would not pick them (or the Raptors) to win a series against either the Pistons or Celtics, but I think both teams can win games in those series, with the Hornets being particularly scary for a top seed.
NOTE: Check out a recent breakdown of the NBA Playoffs with Mike Zakarian and myself in this video pod.
Western Conference
Thunder – The only question about the Thunder for Playoff Best Ball this year is not whether we should be hammering them in drafts or whether they can make the finals. We probably should be, and of course they can. The only question is whether to draft more Thunder or more Spurs. I’ll get a bit more into that in the Spurs blurb below, but the Thunder have gotten healthy at the right time, and we saw how dominant they can be in one of the most incredible beatdowns of a good team I have ever seen in a 40 point drubbing of the Lakers. They need to figure out the playoff rotation, but they have the best defense in the league (which only gets better when Caruso plays more minutes in the playoffs), incredible lineup optionality and a cold-blooded killer in Shai to always keep the offense afloat. Verdict – Overweight
Spurs – The Spurs leap is truly incredible, but I don’t think it should be overlooked just because of their lack of experience. I think they are truly a coin flip (at worst) against the Thunder, as evidenced by their 4-1 record against the Thunder this season. Wemby always makes the defense dominant, and he ensures you also have an offensive fail safe with his size and versatility. But their trio of guards (Castle, Fox, Harper) and collection of versatile wings plus a rock solid backup 5 give them a ton of versatility that is huge for the playoffs. Also, I actually buy the matchup edge for the Spurs against the Thunder. Their volume of ball handlers (including Wemby) can help counter the Thunder pressure, and they have bodies to put on SGA/J Dub with that big fella lurking to take away the rim at all times. Oh and Wemby only plays 30 minutes per game in the regular season, which is sure to increase in the playoffs. Call me crazy, but I think the Spurs win the West. Verdict – Overweight
Lakers – The Lakers were the team in the West proving me the most wrong down the stretch for being light on them all season. They somehow scraped together a good enough defense through scheme, and Luka was playing arguably the best basketball of his life to take an already good offense to another level. I’m a bit lucky I didn’t post this earlier because I would have probably said neutral on the Lakers, but unfortunately Luka suffered a hamstring injury that sounds pretty serious. He is out for the rest of the regular season, and even if he returns healthy, that is a very tricky injury to manage over a long playoff run. If he returns for the playoffs fully healthy with zero issues, and they make a run, I will happily eat crow. But I was already skeptical of this team in a loaded West, so I’m going to shift my exposure elsewhere given their injury status. Verdict – Fade
Nuggets – Like many other basketball nerds, I love Nikola Jokic, and in turn I love the Denver Nuggets. I was so incredibly high on what they did add depth to this team from last season around Joker/Murray, and I do still think the ceiling outcome of that team is an NBA Championship. But it’s a lot harder to see that right now than it was at the beginning of the season. Since Jokic’s return from injury, the defense has completely fallen off the map. We are talking bottom of the league levels, not just regular old bad. Aaron Gordon has returned, but he’s still sitting out some games, and he has rarely been able to stay healthy over long stretches in recent seasons. He is absolutely critical to this team on both ends, but especially to help solve that defense (Peyton Watson helps too). I think it is 100% possible this team is just coasting to the playoffs and turns it on on the defensive end en route to the NBA Finals. But I think we are entirely wishcasting and putting blind faith in them to do so, and you have to draft Jokic in the first round of your drafts if you want him, so it’s tough to treat them as anything other than neutral given their flaws and prices. Verdict – Neutral
Well, things have been totally shaken up since my original writing. The Lakers are becoming at risk of falling out of the 3 seed and into the 4/5 game in the West. That would move the Nuggets into the 3 seed and the Rockets in either the 4 or 5 seed. Minnesota is 97% to remain the 6 seed, which means it’s becoming more likely that the Rockets draw the cushy Lakers matchup in the first round, not the T’Wolves.
My original assumption was that Houston was an easy fade, but that is no longer the case. I’m still not going to get over my skis on a team that I don’t think has any chance in the 2nd round against OKC, it’s not a total lock the Lakers fall to the 4/5, and it’s unclear how many games the Rockets would even play against the Lakers if they’re really missing both Luka and Reaves. But they have gone from a fade to at least neutral, and the T’Wolves have gone from overweight to closer to neutral.
Rockets – Finally, the one Western Conference team I feel is fairly straightforward. Sure, Kevin Durant and a strong defense can theoretically carry you in the playoffs. But they simply cannot sustain a competent offense for long enough stretches against good teams to win in the playoffs. They lack depth, and while they need Reed Sheppard’s spacing on offense, he will get endlessly picked on by opposing offenses. They are not as good of an offensive rebounding team without Steven Adams, and even if they somehow upset the Nuggets (or Lakers) in round one, they have no shot against the Thunder or Spurs. Verdict – Fade
*UPDATED VERDICT – NEUTRAL*
T’Wolves – I can’t quit this team, but the stars have aligned for them to be critical for us in Playoff Best Ball again this year. Per Basketball Reference, they have an 87% chance of the 6 seed, with the Lakers an 82% chance of the 3 seed. Even with a healthy Luka Doncic, they have all the pieces to win that series. Rock solid defense, an apex predator on offense with Ant, and strong complimentary pieces with a variety of skillsets to offer lineup versatility. But they have a shot at drawing the Lakers without Luka, or with a banged up Luka, which is clearly a true gift we should take advantage of in drafts. I cannot express how big of an acquisition Ayo Dosunmu was at the deadline to give them a secondary creator to help Ant, another floor spacer and a rangy perimeter defender. They do have their own health concerns with Jaden McDaniels right now, and he is 100% critical to a true playoff run for this team. But this team has already made multiple conference finals, this is the best roster they’ve had, and they may have just received a gift from the basketball gods with their path. Verdict – Overweight
*UPDATED VERDICT – NEUTRAL*
Play-In Teams (Suns, Blazers, Clippers, Warriors) Whichever two of these teams make it out of the play-in in the West will be squaring off with the two best teams in the NBA (Thunder, Spurs) in the first round. Tey will not beat those teams and even winning one game will be tough. Verdict – Nope.
