Welcome to the Spike Week NFL Betting Blueprint! This is a weekly article I started last season to document our betting process here. Obviously, we are primarily focused on Best Ball drafts, but I also want to continue to expand our content offerings around sports betting, pick em, DFS, survivor and more to embrace all the aspects of this community that I am actively tackling and participating in.
I am not a professional bettor or handicapper, but I have been able to grind out profits, especially in player prop bets (& ladders!), over the years, and I wanted to challenge myself by bringing it here to the Spike Week gang, where we have a very active and sharp group of folks in our discord crushing betting across all the major sports.
Before we dive into Week Six, there’s a quick recap of the first five weeks of the season (below). In Week Five, I feel like it was one of our best weeks from a read perspective, but unfortunately Roman Wilson got injured early for the Steelers to give us just a small winning week.
(If you’d like to see a recap of our 2025 season, plus the Week One Blueprint, you can find that here.)
*Last Updated: Monday October 5th, 4:43 PM ET*
Week One Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-2 (+0.93 units)
- Props
- 16-7 (+6.8075 units)
- Total
- 19-9 (+7.7375 units)
Week Two Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 5-12 (-5.68 units)
- Total
- 6-14 (-6.88 units)
Week Three Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-1 (+1.85 units)
- Props
- 7-10 (-4.665 units)
- Total
- 10-11 (-2.815 units)
Week Four Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-5 (-3.79 units)
- Props
- 14-16 (+4.2875 units)
- Total
- 16-21 (+0.4975 units)
Week Five Recap:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-1 (+ 0.0 units)
- Props
- 7-8 (+0.175 units)
- Total
- 8-9 (+0.175 units)
YTD Stats:
- Sides & Totals
- 10-11 (-2.21 units)
- Props
- 49-53 (+0.925 units)
- Total
- 59-64 (-1.285 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Always make sure to check back before the games each weekend, especially in the prop section, as we will occasionally get some late additions due to injury news, new props, etc. Every time we make an update, we will send out a notification in discord. There are also other incredibly sharp bettors in there posting their favorite plays every week! If you have a premium subscription, but you aren’t currently in the discord, just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord”.
Week 6 Props & Pick Em
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU/JAX | Woody Marks u47.5 rushing yards | -110 | DK | 1 | Yes, DMont is out. But the Texans can't run the ball on anyone, and no one can run the ball on the Jags. |
| 2 | CHI/ATL | Drake London o87.5 receiving yards | -125 | MGM | 1 | With Michael Penix at QB, Drake London is sneakily in the upper echelon of receivers. In those games, London has a 35% target share and a 50% air yards share. He isn't JSN/Puka, but he is probably a bit closer than most might think, and the Bears defense is still a sieve. |
| 3 | PIT/TB | Jaylen Warren o3.5 receptions | -114 | FD | 1 | The Bucs play zone defense at an 80% clip, which sets up wonderfully for Warren in the receiving game. The Bucs are an elite run defense, which should lead the Steelers to the air a bit more, and Warren has a 33% targets per route run against zone defenses thanks to Rodgers frequent check downs. |
| 4 | PHI/CAR | Tanner McKee o195.5 passing yards | -115 | 365 | 1 | I'm not saying Tanner McKee is Jalen Hurts, but it's conceivable that he's not a huge drop off as a passer. The Eagles RBs are in shambles, and the Panthers defense is poor with serious corner injuries. In games with DeVonta Smith in the lineup, Hurts went over this in 2 of 3 outings, and I think McKee has shown enough in his career both regular season and preseason to warrant a little more respect than sub 200 yards. |
| 5 | TEN/IND | Wan'Dale Robinson o4.5 receptions | 125 | MGM | 1 | The Colts are a trainwreck against slot receivers. Even with a couple cushy matchups, they're near the bottom of the league in almost every metric against slot receivers. And part of that is a solid pair of corners on the outside that funnel more targets into the slot, and Wan'Dale is already targeted on 23% of his routes while playing 77% from the slot. |
| 6 | TEN/IND | Wan'Dale Robinson o36.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | The Colts are a trainwreck against slot receivers. Even with a couple cushy matchups, they're near the bottom of the league in almost every metric against slot receivers. And part of that is a solid pair of corners on the outside that funnel more targets into the slot, and Wan'Dale is already targeted on 23% of his routes while playing 77% from the slot. |
| 7 | ARI/LAR | Blake Corum o40.5 rushing yards | -135 | Fanatics | 1 | This is the Blake Corum spot. The Rams are 12.5 point favorites, and they've been in 3 straight totally chaotic game scripts that led to 50+ Stafford pass attempts in each game. Those games lead to a ton more Kyren Williams as the trusted passing game player, but Corum is splitting with Kyren in neutral or positive game scripts. I think we see the most Corum we've seen on the season, and we know McVay will always have an efficient run game, especially now that he has some healthy TEs to get back to his heavy 13 personnel. |
| 8 | ARI/LAR | Blake Corum 50+ rushing yards | 134 | FD | 0.5 | Corum ladder. |
| 9 | ARI/LAR | Blake Corum 60+ rushing yards | 225 | FD | 0.25 | Corum ladder. |
| 10 | ARI/LAR | Blake Corum 70+ rushing yards | 360 | FD | 0.25 | Corum ladder. |
| 11 | ARI/LAR | Blake Corum o14.5 yards longest rush | -119 | DK | 1 | This is the Blake Corum spot. The Rams are 12.5 point favorites, and they've been in 3 straight totally chaotic game scripts that led to 50+ Stafford pass attempts in each game. Those games lead to a ton more Kyren Williams as the trusted passing game player, but Corum is splitting with Kyren in neutral or positive game scripts. I think we see the most Corum we've seen on the season, and we know McVay will always have an efficient run game, especially now that he has some healthy TEs to get back to his heavy 13 personnel. |
| 12 | ARI/LAR | Blake Corum o9.5 rush attempts | -102 | FD | 1 | This is the Blake Corum spot. The Rams are 12.5 point favorites, and they've been in 3 straight totally chaotic game scripts that led to 50+ Stafford pass attempts in each game. Those games lead to a ton more Kyren Williams as the trusted passing game player, but Corum is splitting with Kyren in neutral or positive game scripts. I think we see the most Corum we've seen on the season, and we know McVay will always have an efficient run game, especially now that he has some healthy TEs to get back to his heavy 13 personnel. |
| 13 | BUF/LV | James Cook o90.5 rushing yards | -135 | Fanatics | 2 | Cook is in for one of his eruptions against this Raiders defense. They've allowed the 2nd most run plays of 10+ yards, and we've yet to see James Cook with a run longer than 35 yards. The big ones are coming, and he's going to have the opportunity to do so here with the Bills leading the league in yards before contact per attempt and the Raiders defense last in the league in yards before contact. |
| 14 | BUF/LV | James Cook 100+ rushing yards | 116 | FD | 0.5 | Cook ladder. |
| 15 | BUF/LV | James Cook 110+ rushing yards | 165 | FD | 0.25 | Cook ladder. |
| 16 | BUF/LV | James Cook 120+ rushing yards | 225 | 365 | 0.25 | Cook ladder. |
| 17 | BUF/LV | James Cook o17.5 yards longest rush | -120 | 365 | 1 | Cook is in for one of his eruptions against this Raiders defense. They've allowed the 2nd most run plays of 10+ yards, and we've yet to see James Cook with a run longer than 35 yards. The big ones are coming, and he's going to have the opportunity to do so here with the Bills leading the league in yards before contact per attempt and the Raiders defense last in the league in yards before contact. |
| 18 | KC/LAC | Cyrus Allen o12.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | No Tyquan Thornton or Xavier Worthy and the math just ain't mathing on Cyrus/Royals. Their 3 WR set will be Worthy/Royals/Cyrus, and I think there's legit talent and role upside for both of the two backups here with too much respect in the markets going to Worthy. |
| 19 | KC/LAC | Jalen Royals o24.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | No Tyquan Thornton or Xavier Worthy and the math just ain't mathing on Cyrus/Royals. Their 3 WR set will be Worthy/Royals/Cyrus, and I think there's legit talent and role upside for both of the two backups here with too much respect in the markets going to Worthy. |
| 20 | WAS/SF | George Kittle o60.5 receiving yards | -135 | Fanatics | 2 | The Commanders are the most laughable defense against TEs I have ever seen in my career, and that's a high bar with some teams like the Bengals and Cardinals over the years. They play a dollar store version of the Brian Flores defense, bringing a ton of pressure with two high defenses behind it, which opens so much up for opposing TEs. Likely/Theo combined for 13 catches, 229 yards, freaking Seattle TEs combined for 7/102 and both Jake Ferguson and Dallas Goedert cooked them. |
Week 6 Bets (Sides, Totals, Game Props)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI/LAR | Rams -12.5 | -108 | MGM | 1 | The Cardinals are a big fade right now. They are one of the worst offenses AND defenses in the league, and it seems we are likely to get some Carson Beck in our lives soon, which hurts their garbage time hero nature during Jacoby Brissett's tenure. The Rams can score at will here, and they still have one of the best defenses in the league that can keep this putrid Cards offense under wraps. |
| 2 | LAC/KC | Chiefs -7.5 | -102 | Caesars | 1 | The Chargers are in absolute shambles right now. They have scraped by just enough to hang in there on the final scoreboard in recent games, but the Chiefs are a different beast. They have no OL, no WRs and the Chiefs are fresh off a bye. |
