Season-to-date Recap
It’s Playoff Time. We decided to pass on the Week 18 betting board here in the Blueprint to keep ourselves away from utter absurdity that is Week 18, but we are back for the playoffs. Week 17 was a crappy week, but we thankfully it has been a solid year, sitting up 12.74 units heading into the playoffs.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Week 6:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.2 units)
- Props
- 2-17 (-9.51 units)
- Total
- 4-19 (-9.71 units)
Week 7:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 4-4 (+1.35 units)
- Total
- 7-4 (+5.35units)
Week 8:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.1 units)
- Props
- 9-3 (+5.4975 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+4.3975 units)
Week 9:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.4 units)
- Props
- 10-6 (+5.85 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+5.45 units)
Week 10:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (+0.76 units)
- Props
- 1-9 (-4.24 units)
- Total
- 3-11 (-3.48 units)
Week 11:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-2-1 (-2.24 units)
- Props
- 4-3 (+1.05 units)
- Total
- 4-5-1 (-1.19 units)
Week 12:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-1 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 3-4 (-0.36 units)
- Total
- 7-5 (+3.64 units)
Week 13:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-3 (-3.25 units)
- Props
- 5-11 (-3.15 units)
- Total
- 5-14 (-6.4 units)
Week 14:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (+0.3 units)
- Props
- 2-4 (-3.75 units)
- Total
- 4-6 (-3.45 units)
Week 15:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+3.02 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (+1.00 units)
- Total
- 8-6 (+4.02 units)
Week 16:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-1 (+0.95 units)
- Props
- 6-1 (+4.9 units)
- Total
- 8-2 (+5.85 units)
Week 17:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.13 units)
- Props
- 3-8 (-8.27 units)
- Total
- 5-10 (-8.40 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 39-36-1 (+6.81 units)
- Props
- 82-91 (+5.93 units)
- Total
- 121-127-1 (+12.74 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Always make sure to check back before the games each weekend, especially in the prop section, as we will get new props trickling in to the books later in the week as injury reports are confirmed. Every time we make an update, we will send out a notification in discord. There are also other incredibly sharp bettors in there posting their favorite plays every week! If you have a premium subscription, but you aren’t currently in the discord, just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord”.
Wild Card Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF/PHI | Eagles -5.5 | -110 | FD | 2 | Hopefully you got in on this earlier in the week at a lower number, but we are still heavy on the Eagles here. These are two teams going in opposite directions health wise. The Niners lost another starting linebacker, Ricky Pearsall re-aggravated his knee injury and Trent Williams is far from 100% if he does even suit up. Meanwhile, the Eagles have Jalen Carter back, and likely Lane Johnson. The Niners defense is the worst in the entire playoffs, and just like last week against Seattle, they won't be able to rely upon scoring a million points in this matchup. |
| 2 | BUF/JAX | Over 51 | -110 | 365 | 1 | The Jags have been unstoppable on offense since their week 8 bye, scoring at least 23 points in every game while averaging 32.8 points per game. The Bills offense is also clearly high powered with Josh Allen and James Cook, but they do at times need to be pushed to stay aggressive. That's exactly what should happen here with the Jags offense taking advantage of a weak Bills defense. |
Wild Card Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back on Sunday mornings, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Sunday morning!
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF/JAX | Travis Etienne o63.5 rushing yards | -110 | DK | 2 | The Bills run defense is extremely exploitable, and they just lost Terrel Bernard (starting middle linebacker) to injury. In a must win playoff game, Etienne should be a workhorse here, and the Bills have sneakily become the 2nd worst run defense in football (via EPA/play) behind only the Giants. |
| 2 | BUF/JAX | Travis Etienne 70+ rushing yards | 120 | 365 | 0.5 | Etienne ladder |
| 3 | BUF/JAX | Travis Etienne 80+ rushing yards | 182 | 365 | 0.25 | Etienne ladder |
| 4 | BUF/JAX | Travis Etienne 90+ rushing yards | 280 | 365 | 0.25 | Etienne ladder |
| 5 | LAC/NEP | Ladd McConkey o39.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | The Chargers will likely need to throw plenty here, and Ladd should be featured. Christian Gonzalez should see a bit more of QJ on the outside, and the Pats run man coverage at a top 10 rate in the NFL, which is where the Chargers look to Ladd more than any other receiver. |
| 6 | LAC/NEP | Ladd McConkey 50+ receiving yards | 148 | FD | 0.5 | Ladd ladder |
| 7 | LAC/NEP | Ladd McConkey 60+ receiving yards | 230 | FD | 0.25 | Ladd ladder |
| 8 | LAC/NEP | Ladd McConkey 70+ receiving yards | 360 | FD | 0.25 | Ladd ladder |
| 9 | LAC/NEP | Rhamondre Stevenson o13.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | Rhamondre has turned into a serious weapon in the passing game for the Pats, and their traditional pass down back thanks to his pass pro. He has gone over this number in 5 straight, 6 of 7 and 8 of 14 total games. Projection sources have him more in the 20 yard range. |
| 10 | LAR/CAR | Bryce Young o188.5 passing yards | -115 | BetRivers | 1 | It's clear the Panthers want to run the ball, grind the clock and play bend but don't brake defense, but it's not feasible in certain matchups. This is one of those. Even when the Panthers shockingly upset the Rams earlier this year, the Rams moved the ball at will, and Bryce needed to make plays through the air. I suspect he will need to do FAR more than that in the rematch. |
| 11 | LAR/CAR | Bryce Young 200+ passing yards | 110 | 365 | 0.5 | Bryce ladder |
| 12 | LAR/CAR | Bryce Young 225+ passing yards | 225 | 365 | 0.25 | Bryce ladder |
| 13 | LAR/CAR | Bryce Young 250+ passing yards | 425 | 365 | 0.25 | Bryce ladder |
| 14 | GBP/CHI | Luther Burden o37.5 receiving yards | -118 | 365 | 1 | I understand the weather isn't ideal, but this isn't the first game ever with some wind in Chicago. We are getting a massive discount on an emerging star in a must win playoff game, and I'm going to take that every time. Burden is 3rd in the entire NFL in yards per route run and the Packers secodary is very exploitable. |
| 15 | GBP/CHI | Luther Burden 50+ receiving yards | 160 | 365 | 0.5 | Burden ladder |
| 16 | GBP/CHI | Luther Burden 60+ receiving yards | 270 | 365 | 0.25 | Burden ladder |
| 17 | GBP/CHI | Luther Burden 70+ receiving yards | 425 | 365 | 0.25 | Burden ladder |
| 18 | GBP/CHI | Colston Loveland o43.5 receiving yards | -118 | BetRivers | 1 | Very similar story for Loveland as Burden, just with the Bears stud rookie TE. |
| 19 | GBP/CHI | Romeo Doubs o30.5 receiving yards | -114 | FD | 1 | Doubs is being discounted very similarly here, but he should lead the Packers WRs in snaps with Wicks out. |
| 20 | GBP/CHI | Romeo Doubs 40+ receiving yards | 148 | FD | 0.25 | Doubs ladder |
| 21 | GBP/CHI | Romeo Doubs 50+ receiving yards | 235 | FD | 0.25 | Doubs ladder |
| 22 | BUF/JAX | James Cook o20.5 receiving yards | -115 | MGM | 1 | Ty Johnson is out, and he operates as the passing down back for the Bills. Cook is a lethal receiver, but his volume has been limited by Johnson playing in obvious passing situations due to pass pro, but Cook should take on a much larger share of that today. |
| 23 | BUF/JAX | James Cook 30+ receiving yards | 172 | 365 | 0.5 | Ty Johnson is out, and he operates as the passing down back for the Bills. Cook is a lethal receiver, but his volume has been limited by Johnson playing in obvious passing situations due to pass pro, but Cook should take on a much larger share of that today. |
| 24 | BUF/JAX | James Cook 40+ receiving yards | 350 | 365 | 0.25 | Ty Johnson is out, and he operates as the passing down back for the Bills. Cook is a lethal receiver, but his volume has been limited by Johnson playing in obvious passing situations due to pass pro, but Cook should take on a much larger share of that today. |
| 25 | BUF/JAX | James Cook o2.5 receptions | -129 | DK | 1 | Ty Johnson is out, and he operates as the passing down back for the Bills. Cook is a lethal receiver, but his volume has been limited by Johnson playing in obvious passing situations due to pass pro, but Cook should take on a much larger share of that today. |
| 26 | BUF/JAX | James Cook 4+ receptions | 160 | DK | 0.5 | Ty Johnson is out, and he operates as the passing down back for the Bills. Cook is a lethal receiver, but his volume has been limited by Johnson playing in obvious passing situations due to pass pro, but Cook should take on a much larger share of that today. |
