Week 9 NFL Blueprint – DFS & Drafts

Slate Overview

This entire slate flipped on Friday, but that shouldn’t be too surprising given that’s becoming almost a weekly occurrence at this point in the season. Some major RB values have opened up, which is frankly quite nice given the strength of some of the spend ups. This reminds me a bit of last week, but in a very different way. Last week we had a plethora of value WRs to sift through, and we needed to get access to some of the elite spend ups. You needed Jonathan Taylor, and admittedly I didn’t see the Bijan floor game coming even with Cousins at QB and no London. It’s possible that was a lazy miss, but the overall theme was there. Whether it was Chimere Dike, Tyler Johnson, or our boy Troy Franklin, there were so many value options that got you to the slate breaking studs like JT, you just had to find your way there.

It’s not the exact same this week, but there are some pricey options we REALLY want. It’s a slam dunk spot for CMC, Ja’Marr Chase is averaging more than 20 targets per game with Joe Flacco (not a typo), Rashee Rice is a star WR1 in a likely shootout, etc. But instead of a boatload of super cheap WRs to figure out, we have value RBs to figure out. D’Andre Swift, Cam Skattebo and Rhamondre Stevenson are out.

There are several different stacks we can target, so it’s not one of those “Cowboys game stack or bust” type weeks, but figuring out that RB position that opens up what studs and what game stacks we can access is ultimately the key.

Also, make sure to check out that weekly DFS preview podcast with myself and Jordan Vanek where we talk through the slate every Thursday morning at 10 AM ET.

The Chalk

If we are going to put tournament lineups together, we need to know who our opponents are playing. Here are the current highest projected owned players at each position, c/o RotoGrinders:

DraftKings/Fanduel

• QB – Jaxson Dart, Patrick Mahomes, Caleb Williams
• RB – Kyle Monangai, Christian McCaffrey
• WR – Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr., Rashee Rice
• TE – Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft
• DST – LAC, DET

QB

QB is a bit of a “choose your own adventure” this week. We’ve got the two big spends in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, but as great as they look, it’s hard to spend our precious salary cap dollars or draft capital on them given the strength of the options near the top. But beyond them, there are quite a few reasonable options. Unlike most weeks, I don’t have a major preference here. I lean to the cheaper guys, from Caleb Williams on down.

Caleb, Joe Flacco, Jaxson Dart, and Mac Jones stand out the most to me. They all draw great matchups and have either awesome eco systems around them or elite rushing ability in Dart’s case. I want to build from my RB up this week, so I like using the QB that doesn’t correlate with my RB plays, or even offers leverage off the chalky RBs. I like Dart on non-Tracy teams, Mac on non-CMC teams (though I like him on CMC teams too) and Caleb on non-Monangai teams.

In that vein, I do think an interesting way to get access to all of these great spots and high scoring offenses is by Daniel Jones. The Steelers defense is a disaster this season, and they lost a critical piece of the secondary in Deshon Elliot. You saw his importance in covering TEs when Tucker Kraft went bonkers last week with Elliot hurt. The Steelers defense simply refuses to adjust, and they are being punished by every offense they face for it. This would give us access to this elite Colts offense in a sneaky good spot without having to pony up for JT.

RB

I probably should have moved RB to the top just for this week, but while it’s arguably the most important position of the week, it’s also arguably the simplest. Part of the reason we have to make tough decisions with these value backs is because it’s an absolute slam dunk spot for Christian McCaffrey. He predictably dudded against the elite Texans defense last week, but that just gave us a more reasonable price against the worst run defense in all of football. The Giants have gapped the rest of the league in run defense from an EPA/play perspective, and that’s especially important for CMC given the fact he hasn’t been efficient on the ground this season. His insane workload offsets some of that, but in order to put up a slate breaking score, he needs a better spot… and this is as good as it gets.

Jonathan Taylor can absolutely put up another huge game here, but he does slot in after CMC from a raw points perspective just for this week, and the price on DK/FD is finally super prohibitive. If you want to get a bit more contrarian as a spend up, I personally prefer Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions go brrr at home, and the Vikings run defense has been porous in it’s own right, and Gibbs dropped a 50 ball on them last season.

But where the slate will really be decided is the mid tier and value backs. It all starts with Kyle Monangai, and we see back after back in this spot simply be terrible fades. Monangai is far from a special talent, but he is a steady, physical back who gets what is blocked, can operate at the GL and is trusted in the passing game. At home against the Bengals, with Swift and even Roschon Johnson out, I’m not particularly interested in a fade, unless I’m stacking the game via the passing game on both sides.

Interestingly, the 49ers defense has reached levels not that far from the Giants and Bengals in terms of matchup. We joke about the Niners bad injury luck on offense, but it might just be worse on defense where they are completely ravaged. It’s so bad they were just completely destroyed by the Houston Texans offense without Nico Collins and Christian Kirk. With Cam Skattebo out, Devin Singletary will get on the field, but I fully expect a strong Tyrone Tracy game against this defense. Can he be a GPP winner with Dart stealing some GL TDs and not checking down much? That is the ultimate question.

A player I know has the ability and role to break a slate is TreVeyon Henderson. He’s been really solid on his limited touches, but he’s been held in check by his coaching staff due to some pass blocking blunders. They really have no choice but to trust him now with both Rhamondre and Gibson out, and he’s the exact kind of home run plus pass game threat we crave at these prices in our DFS games. The Falcons defense has been solid most of the year, but they have started to show some cracks, slowly making their way down to the bottom 6 in run defense in terms of EPA/play. The biggest thing, and I swear I feel like the fantasy gods are just messing with me, is that our opponents really don’t care much about TreVeyon. They’re sick of him, and he’s not really that popular, making him such an awesome tournament play.

There are other options, though, including Kimani Vidal in his own smash spot against the woeful Titans run defense. Vidal and the Chargers run game have been phenomenal, and while the price feels a bit uncomfortable it’s very warranted. You can play Kyren Williams, James Cook or even Kareem Hunt if you’re really feeling frisky, but admittedly my focus in on the previous group of CMC + 4 ‘value’ options.

WR

WR is not super deep this week, which is honestly rather nice given the excruciating decisions we have to make at these other positions. If I can get Ja’Marr Chase, I want him. The Bears are an exploitable secondary, and Flacco is relentlessly targeting Chase – to the tune of 42 targets in 2 games (!!!). But Puka Nacua looks good in his return, and Rashee Rice is arguably my favorite overall spend up of the week. He has been dominant since coming back 2 weeks ago, and he’s been getting there in game scripts that really do not push him or the Chiefs to the brink. Now they’ve lost Isiah Pacheco to injury, and it’s hard to imagine they don’t throw the ball even more than they already are while using Rice as a sort of run game substitute in the short passing game and screen game. Oh, and the Bills defense has been very stinky.

But the Bears passing game is awfully intriguing here as well. Rome is their clear WR1 against a Bengals defense that couldn’t stop the Jets without Garrett Wilson. Tyler Johnson had a big game against them! But Luther Burden is also out, which makes DJ Moore a bit more interesting when we pair that with their RB issues. DJM has already been playing some backfield snaps every single game, and it sure would make a LOT of sense to get him more of that work without Swift to pair with his normal WR role that also grows without Burden. I guess Olamide Zaccheaus technically has to be mentioned because he should have a big role without Burden, and he’s $3.3k on DraftKings. It makes me sick, but he’s a totally reasonable play.

DK Metcalf also looks quite good here with his bizarre role of shallow aDOT + YAC for the Steelers. This game has shootout written all over it, and Metcalf can take a slant or shallow cross 80 yards to the house against the Colts zone defense if they don’t have their pursuit angles right.

We certainly have to consider the Jags passing game without Travis Hunter. They draw the Raiders pass funnel defense, and the bye week should have helped them get a bit more settled offensively. The problem is the Hunter injury happened mid week, and BTJ continues to be banged up himself. That does make Parker Washington and Dyami Brown super interesting for tournaments, and someone has to catch some passes here given that Brenton Strange is still out as well.

A couple final nuggets at WR would be the fact that Jauan Jennings has re-emerged as the WR1 in San Fran, and that spot is also good, even if the run game looks a bit better. The flip side is that the Giants pass game of Wan’Dale and Slayton are also in a sneaky good spot against this disastrous Niners defense. They just got destroyed by the Noel/Higgins/Hutchinson trio of Texans wideouts. Drake London doesn’t draw a great spot, but he’s WAY too cheap and the ownership isn’t really following the fact that he’s so underpriced. Lastly, the Rams and Chargers are going to put up huge point totals on Sunday, and their receivers are super talented and not popular.

TE

It’s not National TE day, but there are still some quality TE plays. Tyler Warren looks set for another good game against the Deshon Elliot-less Steelers defense. I love this spot, but will Warren ever put up a score that we HAVE to have at his price in DFS?

Tucker Kraft is more of a fade for me this week, which pains me. I LOVE the player, and the matchup looks good, but a popular Tucker Kraft in a game where the Packers are unlikely to be pushed AND both teams really want to run is not for me.

I’d rather opt for Brock Bowers in his return this week. By all reports, he’s 100% healthy. If that’s true, he’s WAY too cheap in all formats against an exploitable Jags pass defense. The Raiders need his pass game presence, and the last time we saw him at full strength he dropped 100 yards in week 1.

George Kittle can clearly pop here, and he provides some pretty sick leverage on CMC/Jauan plus the other TEs. Dalton Kincaid has historically struggled with the Chiefs, but he’s playing good football this year. His problem on a weekly basis is that he doesn’t play enough snaps/run enough routes unless the Bills are really pushed. See last week with just over 20% of snaps. But clearly this week is a “the Bills get pushed” week, which could mean a lot of routes and a lot more targets.

Theo Johnson and Juwan Johnson also look like really strong value options as go-to guys for rookie QBs, even if they likely don’t have the same ceiling of the bigger talents we’ve already mentioned. Lastly, Travis Kelce and Oronde Gadsden can very clearly have big games in these matchups, they’re just a little lower on the totem pole for me.

Stacks

• Caleb Williams + 2 of Rome Oduzne / DJ Moore / Kyle Monangai
• Daniel Jones + Michael Pittman and/or Tyler Warren
• Mac Jones + 2 of Christian McCaffrey/George Kittle/Jauan Jennings
• Joe Flacco + Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins
• Jaxson Dart + Theo Johnson, Wan’Dale Robinson or Darius Slayton

Core Plays

DraftKings & Fanduel

Drafts – Battle Royale (UD) & Drafters