Week 8 NFL Blueprint – DFS & Drafts

Slate Overview

Every week I talk about being more brief in my write-ups, and I end up writing several thousand words about the slate. This slate, however, should make that mission a bit more achievable. Week 8 brings the most teams on bye of the year, and frankly the grossest slate of the season to date.

On the Thursday DFS show on YouTube/Podcast feeds with Jordan Vanek, I compared this slate to putting together a puzzle. You know what the end result of the puzzle is because they show you on the box! That’s how I feel about this slate. I know what I think we want to do, but figuring out how to put those puzzle pieces together in lineups in all formats is the tricky part.

Obviously that doesn’t mean I know exactly how the slate will play out. If I did, this game would be pretty easy (spoiler – it’s incredibly difficult). But I feel strongly about the direction we want to take our teams given the context of the slate, and our job is to connect those pieces into lineups that tell that story.

Also, make sure to check out that weekly DFS preview podcast with myself and Jordan Vanek where we talk through the slate every Thursday morning at 10 AM ET.

The Chalk

If we are going to put tournament lineups together, we need to know who our opponents are playing. Here are the current highest projected owned players at each position, c/o RotoGrinders:

DraftKings/Fanduel

• QB – Jalen Hurts, Bo Nix
• RB – Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, Rachaad White
• WR – Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith
• TE – Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz
• DST – CIN, NYG

QB

It would be super cool if I were able to write this article early in the week and let it have a bunch of shelf life. However, with the current state of the NFL with injury chaos, if you are putting out your advice or breakdowns before the Friday, and in this week’s case, Saturday, injury news, you are just very likely to be putting out content that is outdated.

That has never been more true than this week with this Lamar Jackson saga, and to a much lesser extent Michael Penix. Let’s get Penix out of the way real quick. He’s out, but I don’t think we wanted to play anything other than the run game here and maybeeeee Drake London (who was also downgraded to questionable). It’s just Bijan week.

Lamar was shaping up to be a really fun tournament play, but he’s out again, and that really alters the slate. It’s not a particularly great spot for Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts is without AJ Brown in a matchup he just was incredibly mediocre in a couple weeks ago. Dak Prescott is always great, but on the road against an elite Broncos defense is rough. Baker Mayfield stunk up the joint last week, and this is a nice spot, but he’s really lacking weapons without Evans, Bucky and Godwin.

I’m still intrigued by Baker in the dome against a bit of a pass funnel Saints defense, but it does really, really point to Bo Nix again this week. He is in our “Coors Field” matchup against the Cowboys with their elite offense but putrid defense. Trevon Diggs is on IR for the Cowboys, and the stacking partners for Nix are really affordable no matter what site you are playing on. He is not going to be sneak by any stretch, but just like last week, Nix is a major priority for me.

This is a slam dunk spot for Jonathan Taylor, but that also means it’s a great spot for Daniel Jones because the Colts are going to score a lot of points. If he steals some rushing touchdowns from JT against the woeful Titans defense, or if the Titans can push back at all, Dimes looks really strong.

Frankly, that’s where I want to live. But if you are feeling frisky, want to jam even more studs, or you get boxed out in a draft format, a couple other quick hitters for me would be Joe Flacco, Justin Fields and Tyler Huntley.

Flacco just straight up cooked the Steelers defense and the Jets man based defense should be ripe for the picking with Chase/Higgins. The problem is the Jets are pretty unlikely to turn this into a track meet. And if they do, I’d just rather have Justin Fields, who was named the starter today. No Garrett Wilson makes things incredibly sketchy, but we know Fields’ upside with his legs and the Bengals defense is still egregious. Lastly, Tyler Huntley showed real rushing upside in his limited sample against the Rams, and the Bears are missing nearly their entire starting secondary. The field is leaning on Derrick Henry, but Huntley likely has the better matchup.

RB

Truthfully, I should have led with RB this week because it really does start at this position. We can talk about all the cute WR plays or lower owned QB options, but everything is centered around what you do at RB, and it starts with the big 3 – Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson.

Interestingly, I am starting with Bijan. He’s the best running back in football, he draws the best matchup in football, and his teammates are banged up (Penix, London, Allgeier) meaning the offense should revolve around him. Out of the big 3, he’s the lock for me. Next is actually Jonathan Taylor. This spot is just pristine. The Colts should dominate the Titans, Jeffrey Simmons is out for the Titans run defense and we just saw him go nuclear against this team. That leaves CMC, which is the trickiest spot. His role is as good as it gets. He’s basically Khalil Shakir plus a solid RB1 all in one player. That’s certainly worth his price everywhere. HOWEVER, he draws by far the toughest matchup of every other stud on the slate. The Texans defense is absolutely for real. They might actually be the best defense in football, or at least top 3. CMC has been great, but last week was the first time we saw him really put up a monster week. He absolutely can do it again, but I have him 3rd amongst the big 3.

Then, it comes down to what you think of the rest of the pack. Derrick Henry is priced so cheaply against a Bears team that is far from invincible against the run, but this is still a Tyler Huntley offense. If Lamar were playing, I’d be singing the praises of the Big Dog, but as the mega chalk with Huntley at the helm, things could definitely go south here, and he’s very game script driven.

Interestingly, Rachaad White is next up on the totem pole. He’s about as opposite of the Big Dog as you can be. He’s game script proof with his pass catching, but he’s also a highly inefficient runner in a “meh” rushing matchup. If there was a “if he beats me, he beats me” somewhere in the encyclopedia, it would probably be Rachaad White.

The Panthers have actually been really strong against the run, and James Cook shockingly doesn’t catch passes, but he’s still James Cook and it’s still the Bills. If he popped for 100/2, I wouldn’t be shocked, but at his ownership it feels quite bad. I feel the same about Saquon Barkley and De’Von Achane. Sure, they are good enough to pop, but they’re not sneaky nor cheap, and these are not great spots and they’ve been terrible tournament plays at these prices all year.

I am a bit intrigued by the idea of the Panthers handing the keys back to Rico Dowdle. Chuba is going to play, but the Bills defense is so vulnerable, and the path to success for the Panthers in this one is clearly on the ground and Rico has been really good. I feel similarly about Breece Hall. It feels disgusting, but if Justin Fields is actually good for his rushing efficiency, and the Bengals defense is as good as it gets from a matchup perspective. On the flip side, you can play Chase Brown as a bet against the disastrous Jets. He’s not getting the pass down work, but the workload is solid and the Jets are really that bad.

I also want to make sure to say that if Tyler Allgeier plays, I have done far dumber things than playing both Bijan and Allgeier in the same tournament lineup. The Dolphins suck, they can’t stop the run and Cousins is a check down artist.

WR

WR is usually the position with a TON of plays, but it’s more focused this week. Ja’Marr Chase rocks, and Sauce Gardner is out for the Jets. They play a ton of man coverage, and Flacco is totally locked in on Chase in those looks. He’s popular, and the Jets are going to have to push back here, but there’s no denying Chase is the WR1.

But my eyes move to the Broncos WRs after Chase, which is both unsurprising and hilarious. Mims and Franklin are totally free in every format and make for awesome options, and Courtland Sutton is one of the very top WR options on the entire week. If I had to pick a Cowboys WR, it’s easily CeeDee Lamb this week, as I expect Pat Surtain to draw more coverage on George Pickens on the outside.

Particularly on DraftKings, I think we have to talk more of the punt WRs. Jaylin Noel stands out with Christian Kirk and Nico Collins hurt, and he’s my preference over Jayden Higgins and Xavier Hutchinson, but it’s fair to question if the Texans offense is worth investing in at all. The same can be said for the Titans, but Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor both have opportunity and game script on their side in this one without Calvin Ridley against the Colts. Tyrell Shavers should get a big bump in playing time without Josh Palmer for the Bills, and Tez Johnson is in a similar boat with no Godwin/Evans. If Drake London misses, Darnell Mooney looks great, and both Garrett Wilson and Josh Reynolds are out for the Jets, meaning we are going to get a LOT of Arian Smith, Tyler Johnson and Isaiah Williams. I’m actually a bit partial to Isaiah Williams as a slot merchant, but Smith is the big play threat here. All of this is to say that there are a plethora of cheap options that you can go to for salary relief or in the last round of your drafts. They are all murky, and they all have upside if you squint. I prefer the Broncos guys, but I’m not flag planting anyone here. I am flag planting the overall crop of cheapies, which means my roster construction will be based around these guys. Multiple guys here are going to pop.

DeVonta Smith is next on the list without AJ Brown (duh), and even with Huntley at the helm, I think Zay Flowers is far too cheap. Lastly, we have the Colts WRs to pair with the aforementioned Dimes stack, and the WRs in the Bucs/Saints game all looking very appealing.

TE

My biggest take of the week that could come back to bite me is that the chalky TEs, Schultz and Goedert, are not nearly as appealing as their ownership dictates. My preference between the two is easily Goedert, by a country mile. The Texans offense is putrid, and Dalton Schultz chalk feels about as fun as a karate chop to the nether regions.

There are just a lot of really appealing TE options this week, which is why I tend to lean to a more contrarian approach here. We know historically this is a great position to get off the beaten path, and that is never more true than when Dalton Schultz is chalk. Cole Kmet is out, which means even with Lamar out, Colston Loveland looks awesome for the Bears. Isaiah Likely also played more than 80% of snaps for the Ravens in their last game, and Cade Otton continues to sneakily crush with the Bucs pass catchers banged up. We saw him go nuclear last year in a similar situation.

Without Palmer, I could see Dalton Kincaid on the field more, and he’s sneakily got the most exploitable matchup for the Bills pass game with these Panthers linebackers in coverage. Lastly, Mason Taylor hasn’t exactly popped yet, but seriously, someone has to catch passes for the Jets, right?

Stacks

• Bo Nix + 2 of Courtland Sutton/Troy Franklin/Marvin Mims
• Daniel Jones + Michael Pittman and/or Tyler Warren
• Jalen Hurts + DeVonta Smith and/or Dallas Goedert
• Baker Mayfield + Emeka Egbuka and/or Cade Otton

Core Plays

DraftKings & Fanduel

Drafts – Battle Royale (UD) & Drafters