Stack. Advance. Ship.
I’ll be keeping my primary focus on the Los Angeles Rams while mixing in the AFC contenders. Honestly, the 49ers have caught me off guard, they’re performing better than I expected. I haven’t drafted them as my main Super Bowl pick yet, but with their potential bye week and the fact that I rarely see them drafted for that scenario, I’ll sprinkle in a few lineups featuring them. Luther Burden has been my personal favorite last round pick as guilt free spending for a few weeks, I will be monitoring the news about his injury very closely.
This is being posted prior to the Rams vs Falcons on Monday Night Football.
Here are my current Super Bowl matchups in the DraftKings $3M Playoff Special via DraftIQ’s Playoff Combos through 56 drafts. I’m feeling very positive about the lack of dead teams I’ve drafted. There’s a delicate balance for the 1/6 contests where you need a high score to advance and build a potential winning Super Bowl matchup:
- Spike Week Rankings for DraftKings, Underdog and Drafters
- All odds are from the Spike Week Playoff Odds
- Read about my Playoff Best Ball: Conscious Drafting Plan
AFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Denver Broncos
Could the Broncos be the AFC’s sleeper pick? A loss in Denver to the Jags may just keep them that way. I had to draft Jaleel McLaughlin recently in a very gross spot. I’m still leaning into Denver builds heavily. I am out on Pat Bryant until we hear more about his latest injury – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 76% (Last week 54%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 32% (Last week 26%)
- Draftable Players: Bo Nix, RJ Harvey, Cortland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Evan Engram (TE sites)
T2. New England Patriots
I don’t think it’s crazy to full fade them or use as strictly one off pieces. Consensus in the Best Ball market favors the Patriots over the Broncos, this led me heavy Broncos and I am okay with that. I do still personally want to mix the Patriots in.
- Bye Odds: 17% (Last week 22%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 18% (Last week 17%)
- Draftable Players: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Kyle Williams, Mack Hollins, Hunter Henry
T2. Jacksonville Jaguars
I’ll be playing Jacksonville as both advance rate pieces on double bye teams and also as a potential Super Bow team in the wide open AFC.
- Bye Odds: 7% (Last week 15%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 15% (Last week 16%)
- Draftable Players: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., Brenton Strange (TE sites)
4. Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is elite, and James Cook has emerged as a real weapon. Beyond that, the roster feels pretty ordinary. I don’t believe in them. Will that bias help or hurt me? – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 5%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 10% (Last week 14%)
- Draftable Players: Josh Allen, James Cook, Ty Johnson, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox.
The Rest
5. Los Angeles Chargers
We need guys to cover byes! – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 4%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 6% (Last week 8%)
- Draftable Players: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden.
6. Houston Texans
Strong defense, sure. But do they really have what it takes for a deep run? The hype machine is pushing them as a Super Bowl team, I’m not buying it. They might steal a game or two, but three straight wins is a bet I’m not making – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 97%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 11% (Last week 10%)
- Draftable Players: CJ Stroud, Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz (TE sites)
Outside Looking In
Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m not drafting Baltimore or Pittsburgh this week unless I am absolutely stuck. If I get stuck, I’ll go to Lamar, Zay and Andrews. Henry is just going too high already,
NFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are firing on all cylinders. Their offense is electric, Stafford is playing at an elite level, and the defense keeps creating momentum-shifting plays. They are easily my favorite team to draft and I rarely leave a draft without them. Does it limit my Super Bowl combinations? Absolutely, however I’ll try to combat that with volume. Figuring out a late Rams piece is tough, it’s likely to come from WR, I am currently leaning Mumpfield. I’ve also mixed in a little Terrance Ferguson when I’ve gotten boxed out of TE. I don’t love it with Higbee looming, but willing to do it when forced.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 18%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 19% (Last week 24%)
- Draftable Players: Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Konata Mumpfield, Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson.
2. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have genuinely surprised me, they’re performing beyond my expectations. While I haven’t made them my primary Super Bowl pick yet, their potential bye week combined with how rarely I see them drafted in that manner makes them an intriguing option. I’ll be mixing in a few lineups with them this week. When I do it, I’ll be going R1 CMC then R2/R3 Kittle depending on if I’m also trying for Drake Maye.
- Bye Odds: 55% (Last week 30%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 99%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 20% (Last week 15%)
- Draftable Players: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffery, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle
3. Seattle Seahawks
Moving on up! While I don’t love them, I’m willing to build a small portion of my teams for them to make the Super Bowl – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 45% (Last week 31%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 18% (Last week 15%)
- Draftable Players: Sam Darnold, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rasheed Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner (TE sites)
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are clearly a contender, but they haven’t looked dominant. The offense has been inconsistent, and the defense is now rounding into shape. Jalen Hurts is still a threat, but unless the offense finds another gear, it’s hard to treat them as the top Super Bowl bet – No Update.
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- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 13% (Last week 12%)
- Draftable Players: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
The Rest
5. Chicago Bears
How about that, Caleb Williams and the Bears are defying expectations and mounting a legitimate playoff push. Williams has injected life into the offense, while the defense is tightening up at the right time. Chicago was written off early, but with Williams settling in and the team finding a rushing attack, they’ve become one of the season’s most surprising teams – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 21%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 14% (Last week 17%)
- Draftable Players: Caleb Williams, D’andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Luther Burden, DJ Moore, Colston Loveland (TE sites)
6. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have taken a big fall. They went from my dark horse play—where I wanted to be above market exposure—to a team I won’t be backing as a primary Super Bowl bet after Micah Parsons’ season-ending injury. – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 93%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 9% (Last week 8%)
- Draftable Players: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed
Outside Looking In
Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers
I’m not drafting Tampa or Carolina this week based on my prior Tampa exposure.
