Season-to-date Recap
After a couple down weeks in Week 13 and 14, we bounced back with big weeks in 15 and 16. Heading into the final two weeks of the regular season, we sit at a total of +21.32 units on the year, up over 14 units on props and just under 7 units on sides & totals. Let’s see if we can close the regular season strong heading into the playoffs.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Week 6:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.2 units)
- Props
- 2-17 (-9.51 units)
- Total
- 4-19 (-9.71 units)
Week 7:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 4-4 (+1.35 units)
- Total
- 7-4 (+5.35units)
Week 8:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.1 units)
- Props
- 9-3 (+5.4975 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+4.3975 units)
Week 9:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.4 units)
- Props
- 10-6 (+5.85 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+5.45 units)
Week 10:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (+0.76 units)
- Props
- 1-9 (-4.24 units)
- Total
- 3-11 (-3.48 units)
Week 11:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-2-1 (-2.24 units)
- Props
- 4-3 (+1.05 units)
- Total
- 4-5-1 (-1.19 units)
Week 12:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-1 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 3-4 (-0.36 units)
- Total
- 7-5 (+3.64 units)
Week 13:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-3 (-3.25 units)
- Props
- 5-11 (-3.15 units)
- Total
- 5-14 (-6.4 units)
Week 14:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (+0.3 units)
- Props
- 2-4 (-3.75 units)
- Total
- 4-6 (-3.45 units)
Week 15:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+3.02 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (+1.00 units)
- Total
- 8-6 (+4.02 units)
Week 16:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-1 (+0.95 units)
- Props
- 6-1 (+4.9 units)
- Total
- 8-2 (+5.85 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 37-34-1 (+6.94 units)
- Props
- 79-83 (+14.2 units)
- Total
- 116-117-1 (+21.32 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Always make sure to check back later in the week for updates, especially in the prop section, as we will get new props trickling in to the books later in the week as injury reports are confirmed. Every time we make an update, we will send out a notification in discord. There are also other incredibly sharp bettors in there posting their favorite plays every week! If you have a premium subscription, but you aren’t currently in the discord, just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord”.
Week 17 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU/LAC | Texans ML | 102 | DK | 1 | The Chargers have been playing well of late, but this matchup is a tough one. The Chargers offensive line is their major issue on offense, and the Texans are the best defense in the league to take advantage of that. |
| 2 | BAL/GB | Under 38.5 | -105 | DK | 1 | We are getting two backup QBs in this one, and it should be exceptionally run heavy. Both teams already want to pound the rock, but their run rates should be even more elevated given their QB situation. Combine that with decent defenses and an outdoor game in Green Bay at the end of the December, and we should get a slugfest here with lots of running. |
| 3 | ARI/CIN | Over 53 | -110 | 365 | 1 | Neither of these teams can stop anyone on defense, but their offenses are both potent enough to match scores here. The only concern is how annoyingly run heavy they can both get in certain game scripts, but I think we see enough big plays on each side to get some fireworks. |
| 4 | NE/NYJ | Patriots o27.5 points | -120 | DK | 1 | The Jets defense is an abomination right now, particularly through the air. The Pats have some receiver injuries, but their WR depth is not much of a drop off from the Boutte, Hollins and Pop grouping, and they should be able to have their way with the Jets defense, just as basically every team has done in recent weeks. |
Week 17 Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back on Sunday mornings, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Sunday morning!
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG/LV | Ashton Jeanty o68.5 rushing yards | -113 | BetRivers | 1 | The Giants remain one of the very worst run defenses in the NFL, and the Raiders are going to feed him the rock as much as possible here in the toilet bowl matchup with no Brock Bowers. |
| 2 | NYG/LV | Tyrone Tracy o57.5 rushing yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | The Giants have gone exceptionally run heavy here down the stretch, and that should continue in this matchup with the lowly Raiders. Tracy will share touches with Devin Singletary, but his volume still remains high, and he's gone over this number in 5 of 6 games. Plus, the Raiders have shut down Maxx Crosby, their best defender up front. |
| 3 | BAL/GB | Luke Musgrave o18.5 receiving yards | -116 | DK | 2 | The Packers will be a bit more run heavy with Malik Willis at QB, but this number is still far too low for Musgrave. He was ceding a lot of snaps to John Fitzpatrick even after Tucker Kraft went down, but Fitz is now out for the season as well. That led to 76% of snaps last week, and 3 targets on 24 Packer pass attempts, finishing with 38 yards. |
| 4 | NO/TEN | Tyjae Spears o16.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 2 | The Titans made Spears more of a focal point of the offense last week, and I am personally buying into the start of that trend. He'll get his carries too, but he's a particularly effective part of the passing game given their lack of pass catching weapons. He turned 5 targets into 5 catches for 53 yards last week, and he's gone over this number in a whopping 9 of 11 games this season. |
| 5 | TB/MIA | Bucky Irving o60.5 rushing yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | The Bucs need to win this game, but they also need to get Bucky going ahead of their huge clash with the Panthers. They should be able to play with a lead, or at worst neutral game script, against this Dolphins team, and even in a down season, Bucky has gone over this number in 5 of 8 games while averaging 66 yards per game. |
| 6 | CHI/SF | DJ Moore o44.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Big game for both teams here, but the Bears will be without Rome Odunze again. That should lead to the targets being funneled to DJM and Burden (in his return) against a really, really leaky Niners defense. |
| 7 | CHI/SF | Luther Burden o45.5 receiving yards | -110 | DK | 1 | Big game for both teams here, but the Bears will be without Rome Odunze again. That should lead to the targets being funneled to DJM and Burden (in his return) against a really, really leaky Niners defense. |
| 8 | CHI/SF | Jauan Jennings o56.5 receiving yards | -110 | MGM | 1 | Pearsall and Kittle are banged up, and even if they play Jennings will be a featured part of the passing game. This number will absolutely rocket up if/when Kittle and/or Pearsall are announced out. |
| 9 | HOU/LAC | Woody Marks u51.5 rushing yards | -112 | FD | 1 | Woody is in his first game back, and during his absence two things popped up to impact his volume here. Nick Chubb returned to full health after missing most of week 14 and all of week 15, and Jawhar Jordan stepped up in a big way with 188 total yards in 2 games. The coach speak this week indicates they'll use all 3 backs, and this is already a fairly inefficient rushing offense. |
| 10 | HOU/LAC | Woody Marks u13.5 rush attempts | -125 | MGM | 1 | Adding Woody under rush attempts as well as rush yards. |
| 11 | HOU/LAC | Jawhar Jordan o10.5 rushing yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Woody Marks is back, but I don't think he's going to step right back into as much volume as prior to his injury. That's due in large part to the strong play from Jawhar, who put up 188 total yards on 37 total touches over the last two weeks to lead this backfield with Marks banged up. The coach speak this week indicates they'll use all three backs, and I don't think they're just banishing Jawhar to the sideline after his strong play, similar to what they did with Marks himself earlier this season. |
