Stack. Advance. Ship.
I’ll be keeping my thoughts short and sweet this week. First, I hope you have a wonderful holiday season; try to go out of your way to do something nice for a stranger! Next, it looks like #OurRams won’t be getting the bye this year which felt likely for many weeks and how I built many of my early teams. I am absolutely happy with my process however, those teams are still very live as had been drafted as double bye. Their advance rates improve by having more players in the Wild Card round and they help cover some of the Bucs players that are about a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs now.
Here are my current Super Bowl matchups in the DraftKings $3M Playoff Special via DraftIQ’s Playoff Combos through 41 drafts:
- Spike Week Rankings for DraftKings, Underdog and Drafters
- All odds are from the Spike Week Playoff Odds
- Read about my Playoff Best Ball: Conscious Drafting Plan
AFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Denver Broncos
Could the Broncos be the AFC’s sleeper pick? A loss in Denver to the Jags may just keep them that way. I had to draft Jaleel McLaughlin recently in a very gross spot. I’m still leaning into Denver builds heavily. I am out on Pat Bryant until we hear more about his latest injury.
- Bye Odds: 54% (Last week 80%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 26% (Last week 31%)
- Draftable Players: Bo Nix, RJ Harvey, Cortland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Evan Engram (TE sites)
T2. Jacksonville Jaguars
I played the Jaguars poorly so far. I have been taking as one-off pieces exclusively, when I likely should have believed a week or two ago and mixed in some Super Bowl builds. That’s okay, the prices aren’t outrageous enough that we can’t afford to do it this week.
- Bye Odds: 15% (Last week 9%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 99%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 16% (Last week 14%)
- Draftable Players: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., Brenton Strange (TE sites)
T2. New England Patriots
I don’t think it’s crazy to full fade them or use as strictly one off pieces. Consensus in the Best Ball market favors the Patriots over the Broncos. Fine, hand me the bargain-bin Broncos.
- Bye Odds: 22% (Last week 6%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 17% (Last week 15%)
- Draftable Players: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry
4. Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is elite, and James Cook has emerged as a real weapon. Beyond that, the roster feels pretty ordinary. I don’t believe in them. Will that bias help or hurt me?
- Bye Odds: 5% (Last week 3%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 14% (Last week 13%)
- Draftable Players: Josh Allen, James Cook, Ty Johnson, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox.
The Rest
5. Los Angeles Chargers
We need guys to cover byes!
- Bye Odds: 4% (Last week 2%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 92%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 8% (Last week 7%)
- Draftable Players: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden.
6. Houston Texans
Strong defense, sure. But do they really have what it takes for a deep run? The hype machine is pushing them as a Super Bowl team, I’m not buying it. They might steal a game or two, but three straight wins is a bet I’m not making. – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 97% (Last week 94%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 10% (Last week 10%)
- Draftable Players: CJ Stroud, Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz (TE sites)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Previous advice “I guess if you have to.” Sadly, I’ve had to quite a few times on double bye builds. I’m leaning Gainwell ahead of Warren today. DK is an absolute last resort.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 93% (Last week 71%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 8% (Last week 6%)
- Draftable Players: Kenny Gainwell, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf
NFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are firing on all cylinders. Their offense is electric, Stafford is playing at an elite level, and the defense keeps creating momentum-shifting plays. They are easily my favorite team to draft and I rarely leave a draft without them. Does it limit my Super Bowl combinations? Absolutely, however I’ll try to combat that with volume. Figuring out a late Rams piece is tough, it’s likely to come from WR, I am currently leaning Mumpfield.
- Bye Odds: 18% (Last week 64%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 24% (Last week 35%)
- Draftable Players: Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Konata Mumpfield, Colby Parkinson.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Moving on up! While I don’t love them, I’m willing to build a small portion of my teams for them to make the Super Bowl.
- Bye Odds: 31% (Last week 16%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 15% (Last week 12%)
- Draftable Players: Sam Darnold, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rasheed Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner (TE sites)
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are clearly a contender, but they haven’t looked dominant. The offense has been inconsistent, and the defense is now rounding into shape. Jalen Hurts is still a threat, but unless the offense finds another gear, it’s hard to treat them as the top Super Bowl bet – No Update.
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- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 99%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 12% (Last week 12%)
- Draftable Players: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
The Rest
4. San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle has the ceiling to swing the Wild Card round. Multiple touchdowns wouldn’t be surprising—and he could easily be the key to advancing on DraftKings – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 30% (Last week 11%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 99%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 15% (Last week 12%)
- Draftable Players: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffery, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle
5. Chicago Bears
How about that, Caleb Williams and the Bears are defying expectations and mounting a legitimate playoff push. Williams has injected life into the offense, while the defense is tightening up at the right time. Chicago was written off early, but with Williams settling in and the team finding a rushing attack, they’ve become one of the season’s most surprising teams – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 21% (Last week 8%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 87%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 17% (Last week 11%)
- Draftable Players: Caleb Williams, D’andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Luther Burden, DJ Moore, Colston Loveland (TE sites)
6. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have taken a big fall. They went from my dark horse play—where I wanted to be above market exposure—to a team I won’t be backing as a primary Super Bowl bet after Micah Parsons’ season-ending injury. – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 93% (Last week 89%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 8% (Last week 1%)
- Draftable Players: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave (TE sites)
Outside Looking In
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m not drafting Tampa or Carolina this week based on my prior Tampa exposure.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 43% (Last week 64%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 5% (Last week %)
- Draftable Players: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
