Happy holidays and Week 16. We will get our accounting and season recap to date up (two week catch up) a little later today, but let’s get down to business with some Week 16 bets and props.
Week 16 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
| 1 | KC/TEN | Under 37.5 | -110 | FD | 1 | We know the woeful Titans offense is going to struggle against the Chiefs strong defense, but we now have the Chiefs offense without Mahomes, Rashee Rice and key offensive linemen. |
| 2 | PIT/DET | Over 51.5 | -110 | FD | 1 | Lions defense continues to struggle with their injuries, but the offense should have plenty of success against a Steelers defense without TJ Watt. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers can still carve up man coverage, which the Lions run at the 2nd highest rate in football. |
| 3 | NYJ/NO | Over 40.5 | -105 | FD | 1 | Somehow these two defenses are worse than these two offenses, and the Saints particularly should have success against a putrid Jets defense. |
Week 16 Props (& Pick Em)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
| 1 | CLE/BUF | Dalton Kincaid u37.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Kincaid is managing a knee issue that doesn't sound very good. They've limited him severely in practice, and this week coaches were quoted as saying it's a nagging thing that he's going to have to manage. He's already a playing time risk in games where the Bills do not need to pass, and a game against the Browns certainly profiles as one Kincaid isn't heavily involved in. |
| 2 | CIN/MIA | Darren Waller o28.5 receiving yards | -110 | MGM | 1 | Waller was almost the entirety of the Dolphins passing game last week, and now he draws the best matchup in the league for TEs with the Bengals with a rookie QB in his first start who hopefully latches onto his big TE. |
| 3 | PIT/DET | DK Metcalf o59.5 receiving yards | -110 | MGM | 1 | The Lions play man coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league despite an injury riddled secondary, and that's the one thing Aaron Rodgers still feasts on. With the Lions offense also pushing the Steelers to stay aggressive, Rodgers should take to the air often with Metcalf as his featured target. |
| 4 | PIT/DET | Aaron Rodgers o21.5 completions | -107 | DK | 1 | Adding on to the Steelers pass game point above. |
| 5 | PIT/DET | Aaron Rodgers o32.5 pass attempts | -108 | FD | 1 | Adding on to the Steelers pass game point above. |
| 6 | NYJ/NO | Chris Olave 64.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Devaughn Vele had really taken on a bigger role in the passing game, but he is now out for the season, which puts most of the offensive burden back on Olave. The Jets pass defense is arguably the worst in the league at the moment after all their trades, and the Saints injuries have Olave is nearly the last man standing. |
| 7 | NYJ/NO | Adonai Mitchell o40.5 receiving yards | -110 | FD | 1 | Mitchell is the focal point of the passing game for the rebuilding Jets without Garrett Wilson and Mason Taylor, and he picked up 9 targets on 33 Brady Cook pass attempts in his first start last week. |
