Stack. Advance. Ship.
I’m rolling with Los Angeles as the main ticket again this week. If I land them, I’m lining up Denver, New England, or Buffalo for the AFC. No LA? No problem, move on to Philly in the NFC and keep the party going. The whole idea is to lock in those juicy combos and stay flexible so we’re always in the mix for a Super Bowl run. We don’t have any likely Wild Card round matchups close to being probable yet, however we are getting close to the time of year to keep an eye out for these.
I’m surprised Bo Nix’s ADP hasn’t climbed more aggressively. Last week I expected both he and Maye to rise, but only Maye has moved. With Denver’s win and New England’s loss in Week 15, I’ll be keeping a close eye on how the market reacts.
Underdog released its main slate contests since last week. I personally prefer the DraftKings $3M Playoff Special over the Gauntlet:
- Underdog’s Gauntlet is $3,750 to max. 1/6 > 1/6 > 1/5 > 500 person finals. $500k to first, $500 finals min cash
- DraftKings $3M Playoff Special is $3,000 to max. 1/6 > 1/6 > 1/6 > 816 person finals. $1M to first, $500 finals min cash
The $750 in savings (if maxing), the added strategic depth at tight end, and the extra $500k up top make the slightly tougher advance structure more than worthwhile. And that’s before even factoring in site‑to‑site competition levels or potential overlay.
Here are my current Super Bowl matchups in the DraftKings $3M Playoff Special via DraftIQ’s Playoff Combos through 24 drafts:
- Spike Week Rankings for DraftKings and Underdog
- All odds are from the Spike Week Playoff Odds
- Read about my Playoff Best Ball: Conscious Drafting Plan
AFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Denver Broncos
Could the Broncos be the AFC’s sleeper pick, the team no one sees coming until they crash the Super Bowl party? Their defense has quietly rounded into form, giving them the toughness to hang with elite opponents. If the offense finds just enough rhythm, Denver could turn from overlooked to unstoppable in January. No update other than I’m bummed about the Pat Bryant injury. I’m still willing to take Pat, however the injury probably derails him from taking the WR2 job based on talent. I had to draft Jaleel McLaughlin this week in a very gross spot.
- Bye Odds: 80% (Last week 47%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 31% (Last week 23%)
- Draftable Players: Bo Nix, RJ Harvey, Cortland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, Evan Engram (TE sites)
2. New England Patriots
The FTN Team Total DVOA Rankings leave room to be desired for the Patriots, I am going to give the power ranking advantage to them. I also don’t think its crazy to full fade them or use as strictly one off pieces. Consensus in the Best Ball market favors the Patriots over the Broncos. Fine, hand me the bargain-bin Broncos, you mouthbreathers.
- Bye Odds: 6% (Last week 38%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 15% (Last week 22%)
- Draftable Players: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry
3. Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is elite, and James Cook has emerged as a real weapon. Beyond that, the roster feels pretty ordinary. Is that enough to reach a Super Bowl? Possibly. I’ll be building out some Buffalo vs. L.A. Super Bowl scenarios.
- Bye Odds: 3% (Last week 3%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 97%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 13% (Last week 13%)
- Draftable Players: Josh Allen, James Cook, Ty Johnson, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox.
The Rest
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
We need guys to cover byes!
- Bye Odds: 9% (Last week 10%)
- Playoff Odds: 99% (Last week 99%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 14% (Last week 15%)
- Draftable Players: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange (TE sites)
5. Houston Texans
Strong defense, sure. But do they really have what it takes for a deep run? The hype machine is pushing them as a Super Bowl team, I’m not buying it. They might steal a game or two, but three straight wins is a bet I’m not making.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 94% (Last week 89%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 10% (Last week 10%)
- Draftable Players: CJ Stroud, Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz (TE sites)
6. Los Angeles Chargers
We need guys to cover byes! Gadsden is one of the real late DK pieces that can help you unlock other strategic advantages, he’s currently at ADP 61.8.
- Bye Odds: 2% (Last week 2%)
- Playoff Odds: 92% (Last week 75%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 7% (Last week 6%)
- Draftable Players: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Oronde Gadsden.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week’s advice “I guess if you have to.” Sadly, I’ve had to quite a few times on double bye builds. I’m leaning Gainwell ahead of Warren today.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 71% (Last week 77%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 6% (Last week 7%)
- Draftable Players: Kenny Gainwell, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf
Not Ranked
Baltimore Ravens
Done with the Ravens. There’s no draft value here this week, and I’m not chasing it. Could it change, sure.
- Playoff Odds: 30% (Last week 20%)
- Draftable Players: None
NFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are firing on all cylinders. Their offense is electric, Stafford is playing at an elite level, and the defense keeps creating momentum-shifting plays. They are easily my favorite team to draft and I rarely leave a draft without them. Does it limit my Super Bowl combinations? Absolutely, however I’ll try to combat that with volume. Figuring out a late Rams piece is tough, its likely to come from WR. Here are their recent snap shares from footballguys.com.
- Bye Odds: 64% (Last week 48%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 98%)
- Super Bowl Odds: % (Last week 27%)
- Draftable Players: Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Colby Parkinson. Could use a late WR if needed, your choice.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are clearly a contender, but they haven’t looked dominant. The offense has been inconsistent, and the defense is now rounding into shape. Jalen Hurts is still a threat, but unless the offense finds another gear, it’s hard to treat them as the top Super Bowl bet – No Update.
-
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 2%)
- Playoff Odds: 99% (Last week 96%)
- Super Bowl Odds: % (Last week 18%)
- Draftable Players: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
3. Seattle Seahawks
This team has the talent to shine on any given gameday, but the inconsistency makes it hard to envision them winning three straight road games. To take the next step, they need to get Rashid Shaheed more involved and unlock his playmaking ability – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 16% (Last week 25%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 98%)
- Super Bowl Odds: % (Last week 23%)
- Draftable Players: Sam Darnold, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rasheed Shaheed, AJ Barner (TE sites)
The Rest
4. San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle has the ceiling to swing the Wild Card round. Multiple touchdowns wouldn’t be surprising—and he could easily be the key to advancing on DraftKings.
- Bye Odds: 11% (Last week 9%)
- Playoff Odds: 99% (Last week 93%)
- Super Bowl Odds: % (Last week 5%)
- Draftable Players: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffery, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle
5. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have taken a big fall. They went from my dark horse play—where I wanted to be above market exposure—to a team I won’t be backing as a primary Super Bowl bet after Micah Parsons’ season-ending injury.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 9%)
- Playoff Odds: 89% (Last week 93%)
- Super Bowl Odds: % (Last week 11%)
- Draftable Players: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave (TE sites)
6. Chicago Bears
How about that, Caleb Williams and the Bears are defying expectations and mounting a legitimate playoff push. Williams has injected life into the offense, while the defense is tightening up at the right time. Chicago was written off early, but with Williams settling in and the team finding a rushing attack, they’ve become one of the season’s most surprising teams – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 8% (Last week 6%)
- Playoff Odds: 87% (Last week 72%)
- Super Bowl Odds: % (Last week 5%)
- Draftable Players: Caleb Williams, D’andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Luther Burden, DJ Moore, Colston Loveland (TE sites)
- Note: Do not pair Bears with Lions.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa doesn’t stand out much relative to other NFC options, but with Baker Mayfield and solid playoff odds, they’re clearly draftable. For now, I’m treating them as a secondary piece rather than a primary Super Bowl path – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 64% (Last week 60%)
- Super Bowl Odds: % (Last week 3%)
- Draftable Players: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
Outside Looking In
Not Ranked. Detroit Lions
If you wanted to make a bet on Detroit; you could talk me into using Goff, Gibbs, St. Brown and Jamo as bye coverage. The problem for me is they just aren’t cheap enough for their odds.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 24% (Last week 42%)
- Super Bowl Odds: % (Last week 3%)
- Draftable Players: None
- Note: Do not pair Lions with Bears.
