Stack. Advance. Ship.
I feel really good about the strategy I’ve been enacting, yes it’s primarily “Rams go brr” but after a loss to Carolina it would be easy to start questioning them. I am running back this guidance another week “My primary builds this week will be centered around the Los Angeles Rams, New England and Denver.” I do want to mention three other teams I am including in my contenders: Buffalo, Green Bay and Seattle. I am going to play around with LAR + Josh Allen builds; the Bills offense is crushing it and would it really be any surprise if Josh Allen just carried the full team. If I get boxed out of LAR on a Josh build, I’ll be pivoting to GB then SEA if needed.
I want more Matt Stafford on non-Josh Allen teams. This comes from a few different places:
- This would give me a Rams RB to target later in drafts, Blake Corum, opening up an earlier draft pick for Double Bye one-offs. If I take 2nd Round Kyren, I am boxed into an AFC QB in Round 3/4 in Maye/Nix.
- There is a shift occurring in quarterback supply and demand. With recent declines; we’ve lost Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes, Daniel Jones and Jared Goff from the drafted player pool. While we may not have been taking all of them as of late, other drafters were! They’ve been replaced with Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud, Justin Herbert and Caleb Williams. Those names are not nearly as sexy. As such, our competition is likely to push up the remaining sexy options that are competing for league MVP. Especially drafting on DK, I am going to beat them to the punch at QB and not wait and hope. Be proactive.
I’ve spent most of my time the past week drafting everywhere on DraftKings, including the flagship $3M Playoff Special ($1M to First). No contests are currently available on Drafters or Underdog, though both should be releasing shortly. Here are my current Super Bowl matchups in the DraftKings $3M Playoff Special via DraftIQ’s Playoff Combos:
- Spike Week Rankings for DraftKings and Underdog
- All odds are from the Spike Week Playoff Odds
- Read about my Playoff Best Ball: Conscious Drafting Plan
AFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. New England Patriots
While the FTN Team Total DVOA Rankings leave room to be desired for the Patriots, I am going to give the power ranking advantage to them.
I’ll be targeting Patriots, especially while the prices on them are cheap. Their Strength of Victory and remaining Strength of Schedule may be unimpressive, but if they keep winning, the #1 seed is theirs – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 38% (Last week 45%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 22% (Last week 23%)
- Draftable Players: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry
2. Denver Broncos
Could the Broncos be the AFC’s sleeper pick, the team no one sees coming until they crash the Super Bowl party? Their defense has quietly rounded into form, giving them the toughness to hang with elite opponents. If the offense finds just enough rhythm, Denver could turn from overlooked to unstoppable in January. For gosh sakes, plan for and draft Pat Bryant!
- Bye Odds: 47% (Last week 45%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 99%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 23% (Last week 23%)
- Draftable Players: Bo Nix, RJ Harvey, Cortland Sutton, Pat Bryant, Troy Franklin, Evan Engram (TE sites)
3. Buffalo Bills
Ugh, the Bills are one of the most exciting teams in football. Josh Allen makes big plays with his arm and legs, and the offense can score from anywhere. If they get hot at the right time, their upside makes them a real Super Bowl threat. However, the keep racking up bad losses: Miami, Atlanta and Houston – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 3% (Last week 4%)
- Playoff Odds: 97% (Last week 91%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 13% (Last week 12%)
- Draftable Players: Josh Allen, James Cook, Ty Johnson, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox.
The Rest
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
We need guys to cover byes!
- Bye Odds: 10% (Last week 4%)
- Playoff Odds: 99% (Last week 86%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 15% (Last week 8%)
- Draftable Players: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange (TE sites)
5. Houston Texans
Great defense, do they have what it takes to make a run?
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 89% (Last week 66%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 10% (Last week 8%)
- Draftable Players: CJ Stroud, Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz (TE sites)
6. Los Angeles Chargers
We need guys to cover byes!
- Bye Odds: 2% (Last week 1%)
- Playoff Odds: 75% (Last week 60%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 6% (Last week 5%)
- Draftable Players: Pausing on Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Oronde Gadsen.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
I guess if you have to.
- Bye Odds: 0%
- Playoff Odds: 77%
- Super Bowl Odds: 7%
- Draftable Players: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf
Not Ranked
Indianapolis Colts
Happy with this guidance from last week, “Daniel Jones injury brings a lot of volatility to a team that frankly does not need it. Their recent loss to the Texans has opened the door in the AFC for both Houston and Jacksonville. I’m probably pausing on drafting the Colts this week unless a massive value appears.”
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 2%)
- Playoff Odds: 31% (Last week 70%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 2% (Last week 9%)
- Draftable Players: None
Baltimore Ravens
Done with the Ravens. There’s no draft value here this week, and I’m not chasing it.
- Playoff Odds: 20% (Last week 44%)
- Draftable Players: None
Kansas City Chiefs
Done with the Chiefs. There’s no draft value here this week, and I’m not chasing it.
- Playoff Odds: 8% (Last week 27%)
- Draftable Players: None
NFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are firing on all cylinders. Their offense is electric, Stafford is playing at an elite level, and the defense keeps creating momentum-shifting plays. Puka continues to dominate with elite volume and separation, while Kyren’s workload makes him one of the most valuable backs in the playoffs – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 48% (Last week 32%)
- Playoff Odds: 98% (Last week 96%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 27% (Last week 24%)
- Draftable Players: Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Colby Parkinson. Could use a late WR if needed, your choice.
2. Green Bay Packers
With Jayden Reed returned and the defense finding its rhythm, Jordan Love might just have the pieces to spark a postseason run. Putting my balls on the table with this one, I trust them especially if teams have to go to Lambeau.
- Bye Odds: 9% (Last week 6%)
- Playoff Odds: 93% (Last week 84%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 11% (Last week 10%)
- Draftable Players: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave (TE sites)
3. Seattle Seahawks
This team has the talent to shine on any given gameday, but the inconsistency makes it hard to envision them winning three straight road games. To take the next step, they need to get Rashid Shaheed more involved and unlock his playmaking ability – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 25% (Last week 19%)
- Playoff Odds: 98% (Last week 94%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 23% (Last week 21%)
- Draftable Players: Sam Darnold, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rasheed Shaheed, AJ Barner (TE sites)
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are clearly a contender, but they haven’t looked dominant. The offense has been inconsistent, and the defense is now rounding into shape. Jalen Hurts is still a threat, but unless the offense finds another gear, it’s hard to treat them as the top Super Bowl bet.
- Bye Odds: 2% (Last week 17%)
- Playoff Odds: 96% (Last week 98%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 18% (Last week 22%)
- Draftable Players: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
The Rest
5. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers fall into the rest for a reason. I don’t believe their current level of play, especially on defense, is strong enough to reach the Super Bowl. I’m keeping the door open in case Brock Purdy’s return transforms the offense into a juggernaut – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 9% (Last week 10%)
- Playoff Odds: 93% (Last week 92%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 5% (Last week 6%)
- Draftable Players: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffery, George Kittle
6. Chicago Bears
How about that, Caleb Williams and the Bears are defying expectations and mounting a legitimate playoff push. Williams has injected life into the offense, while the defense is tightening up at the right time. Chicago was written off early, but with Williams settling in and the team finding a rushing attack, they’ve become one of the season’s most surprising teams – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 6% (Last week 16%)
- Playoff Odds: 72% (Last week 83%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 5% (Last week 7%)
- Draftable Players: Caleb Williams, D’andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Luther Burden, DJ Moore, Colston Loveland (TE sites)
- Note: Do not pair Bears with Lions.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa doesn’t stand out much relative to other NFC options, but with Baker Mayfield and solid playoff odds, they’re clearly draftable. For now, I’m treating them as a secondary piece rather than a primary Super Bowl path.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 10%)
- Playoff Odds: 60% (Last week 72%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 3% (Last week 5%)
- Draftable Players: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
Outside Looking In
Not Ranked. Detroit Lions
If you wanted to make a bet on Detroit; you could talk me into using Goff, Gibbs and St. Brown as bye coverage. The problem for me is they just aren’t cheap enough for their odds.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 42% (Last week 28%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 3% (Last week 2%)
- Draftable Players: None
- Note: Do not pair Lions with Bears.
