Stack. Advance. Ship.
The Rams train is full steam ahead. I can’t stop drafting Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and honestly, why would I? But Bernie, they lost to the Carolina Panthers! It’s the NFL, every team loses every once in awhile and there’s even data to support it was a bit unlucky. Check out Sam Hoppen’s post comparing offensive success rates! We even recently moved Adams up to 2nd overall in our rankings, link below for subscribers. If you want to hang the Panthers loss on the Rams, fine. But who exactly are you trusting more? Eagles — nope. Bears — nope. Pats — nope. Colts — nope. Broncos — nope. Seahawks — maybe, at best. My primary builds this week will be centered around the Los Angeles Rams, New England and Denver. If the markets wizen up and start taking Adam earlier, I’ll do some Hurts/Barkley starts.
Do you want to get wild? Use Green Bay as your primary NFC Super Bowl team.
I’ve spent most of my time the past week drafting in the DraftKings flagship contest ($3M Playoff Special) with ONE MILLION DOLLARS TO FIRST. Underdog’s only available contest is the Way Too Early Wild Card. No contests are open on Drafters yet. Here are my current Super Bowl matchups in the DraftKings $3M Playoff Special via DraftIQ’s Playoff Combos:
- Spike Week Rankings for DraftKings and Underdog
- All odds are from the Spike Week Playoff Odds
- Read about my Playoff Best Ball: Conscious Drafting Plan
AFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. New England Patriots
While the FTN Team Total DVOA Rankings leave room to be desired for the Patriots, I am going to give the power ranking advantage to the team. I’ll be targeting Patriots, especially while the prices on them are cheap. Their Strength of Victory and remaining Strength of Schedule may be unimpressive, but if they keep winning, the #1 seed is theirs.
- Bye Odds: 45% (Last week 51%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 23% (Last week 26%)
- Draftable Players: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry
2. Denver Broncos
Could the Broncos be the AFC’s sleeper pick, the team no one sees coming until they crash the Super Bowl party? Their defense has quietly rounded into form, giving them the toughness to hang with elite opponents. If the offense finds just enough rhythm, Denver could turn from overlooked to unstoppable in January. – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 45% (Last week 35%)
- Playoff Odds: 99% (Last week 98%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 23% (Last week 18%)
- Draftable Players: Bo Nix, RJ Harvey, Troy Franklin, Cortland Sutton, Pat Bryant, Evan Engram (TE sites)
3. Buffalo Bills
Ugh, the Bills are one of the most exciting teams in football. Josh Allen makes big plays with his arm and legs, and the offense can score from anywhere. If they get hot at the right time, their upside makes them a real Super Bowl threat. However, the keep racking up bad losses: Miami, Atlanta and Houston – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 4% (Last week 2%)
- Playoff Odds: 91% (Last week 87%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 12% (Last week 11%)
- Draftable Players: Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid.
The Rest
4. Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones injury brings a lot of volatility to a team that frankly does not need it. Their recent loss to the Texans has opened the door in the AFC for both Houston and Jacksonville. I’m probably pausing on drafting the Colts this week unless a massive value appears.
- Bye Odds: 2% (Last week 11%)
- Playoff Odds: 70% (Last week 90%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 9% (Last week 16%)
- Draftable Players: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Tyler Warren
5. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is always in play for fantasy scoring thanks to Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability and explosive playmaking. If they reach the playoffs, it will almost certainly come via a division title, giving them home-field in Round 1. The road there is steep, though, with two matchups against Pittsburgh looming as likely division deciders.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 44% (Last week 79%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 4% (Last week 71%)
- Draftable Players: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
I have zero enthusiasm for this inclusion and would only draft them if absolutely necessary to complete a Wild Card lineup.
- Bye Odds: 4% (Last week 1%)
- Playoff Odds: 86% (Last week 71%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 8% (Last week 3%)
- Draftable Players: Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange
Outside Looking In
7. Houston Texans
Some people are beginning to draft them; I need a win this weekend to start.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 1%)
- Playoff Odds: 66% (Last week 71%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 8% (Last week 3%)
- Draftable Players: Not yet for me
8. Los Angeles Chargers
No Chargers for me at the moment. Worst‑case scenario, I’ll cave — but that’s a last resort.
- Bye Odds: 1% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 60% (Last week 50%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 5% (Last week 7%)
- Draftable Players: Pausing on Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Oronde Gadsen.
Not Ranked. Kansas City Chiefs
Done with the Chiefs. There’s no draft value here this week, and I’m not chasing it.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 27% (Last week 59%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 3% (Last week 7%)
- Draftable Players: None
NFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are firing on all cylinders. Their offense is electric, Stafford is playing at an elite level, and the defense keeps creating momentum-shifting plays. Puka continues to dominate with elite volume and separation, while Kyren’s workload makes him one of the most valuable backs in the playoffs – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 32% (Last week 46%)
- Playoff Odds: 96% (Last week 99%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 24% (Last week 25%)
- Draftable Players: Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Colby Parkinson. Tutu and Whittington are very thin but could be mixed in, however they use many WR’s.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are clearly a contender, but they haven’t looked dominant. The offense has been inconsistent, and the defense hasn’t been as sharp as in past years. Jalen Hurts is still a threat, but unless the offense finds another gear, it’s hard to treat them as the top Super Bowl bet – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 17% (Last week 33%)
- Playoff Odds: 98% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 22% (Last week 23%)
- Draftable Players: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
3. Seattle Seahawks
This team has the talent to shine on any given gameday, but the inconsistency makes it hard to envision them winning three straight road games. To take the next step, they need to get Rashid Shaheed more involved and unlock his playmaking ability – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 19% (Last week 9%)
- Playoff Odds: 94% (Last week 93%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 21% (Last week 22%)
- Draftable Players: Sam Darnold, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rasheed Shaheed, AJ Barner (TE sites)
4. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay’s Thanksgiving win in Detroit is a game-changer for their season. With Jayden Reed nearing a return and the defense finding its rhythm, Jordan Love might just have the pieces to spark a postseason run.
- Bye Odds: 6% (Last week 1%)
- Playoff Odds: 84% (Last week 66%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 10% (Last week 6%)
- Draftable Players: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed
The Rest
5. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers fall into the rest for a reason. I don’t believe their current level of play, especially on defense, is strong enough to reach the Super Bowl. I’m keeping the door open in case Brock Purdy’s return transforms the offense into a juggernaut – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 10% (Last week 3%)
- Playoff Odds: 92% (Last week 89%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 6% (Last week 4%)
- Draftable Players: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffery, George Kittle
6. Chicago Bears
How about that, Caleb Williams and the Bears are defying expectations and mounting a legitimate playoff push. Williams has injected life into the offense, while the defense is tightening up at the right time. Chicago was written off early, but with Williams settling in and the team finding a rushing attack, they’ve become one of the season’s most surprising teams.
- Bye Odds: 16% (Last week 4%)
- Playoff Odds: 83% (Last week 71%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 7% (Last week 4%)
- Draftable Players: Caleb Williams, D’andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Colston Loveland (TE sites)
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa doesn’t stand out much relative to other NFC options, but with Baker Mayfield and playoff odds north of 85%, they’re clearly draftable. For now, I’m treating them as a secondary piece rather than a primary Super Bowl path. I am keeping an eye on Baker’s injury closely to see if it will linger into the playoffs.
- Bye Odds: 1% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 72% (Last week 87%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 5% (Last week 7%)
- Draftable Players: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Mike Evans
Outside Looking In
Not Ranked. Detroit Lions
Done with the Lions currently. There’s no draft value here unless they have a major turn around.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 2%)
- Playoff Odds: 28% (Last week 68%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 2% (Last week 6%)
- Draftable Players: None
