Stack. Advance. Ship.
I feel confident in last week’s guidance which proved valuable, and I’ll be sticking with it again this week: “I’m going to lean into early exposure to the Rams and Eagles giving me access to two explosive NFC offenses with concentrated production. From there, I’ll layer in a mixed bag of AFC matchups.” A large portion of my drafts will be LAR + NE regardless of what draft slot I have.
Big News! DraftKings launched a full menu of Playoff Best Ball contests yesterday, including a $20 entry fee flagship contest with ONE MILLION TO FIRST. Underdog’s only available contest Way Too Early Wild Card. No contests open on Drafters yet.
All odds are from the Spike Week Playoff Odds
AFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. New England Patriots
While the FTN Team Total DVOA Rankings significantly have the Colts rated above the Patriots, I am going to give the power ranking advantage to the team likely to be at home team every game after their bye. I’ll be targeting Patriots, especially while the prices on them are much cheaper.
- Bye Odds: 51% (Last week 38%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 26% (Last week 23%)
- Draftable Players: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry
2. Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones brings mobility and experience, and Jonathan Taylor remains a top-tier weapon in the backfield. Tyler Warren has stepped up as a reliable target, giving the offense a much-needed boost in the passing game. Whether they can win in January depends on how well Jones can manage games and avoid mistakes – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 11% (Last week 29%)
- Playoff Odds: 90% (Last week 97%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 16% (Last week 21%)
- Draftable Players: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Tyler Warren
3. Denver Broncos
Could the Broncos be the AFC’s sleeper pick, the team no one sees coming until they crash the Super Bowl party? Their defense has quietly rounded into form, giving them the toughness to hang with elite opponents. If the offense finds just enough rhythm, Denver could turn from overlooked to unstoppable in January.
- Bye Odds: 35% (Last week 24%)
- Playoff Odds: 98% (Last week 98%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 18% (Last week 15%)
- Draftable Players: Bo Nix, RJ Harvey, Troy Franklin, Cortland Sutton, Pat Bryant, Marvin Mims, Evan Engram (TE sites)
The Rest
4. Buffalo Bills
Ugh, the Bills are one of the most exciting teams in football. Josh Allen makes big plays with his arm and legs, and the offense can score from anywhere. If they get hot at the right time, their upside makes them a real Super Bowl threat. However, the keep racking up bad losses: Miami, Atlanta and Houston.
- Bye Odds: 2% (Last week 7%)
- Playoff Odds: 87% (Last week 94%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 11% (Last week 13%)
- Draftable Players: Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
11/29 Quick Update – I’m no longer drafting Chiefs. This pause may be temporary or permanent.
The Chiefs are still dangerous, but they’ve had to grind more than usual this season. Patrick Mahomes keeps them in every game, and Rashee Rice has emerged as a key piece, his ability to create after the catch gives the offense much-needed juice. If Rice continues to grow into a true WR1, it could unlock the ceiling this team needs for another deep playoff run.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 59% (Last week 50%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 7% (Last week 6%)
- Draftable Players:
6. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is always in play for fantasy scoring thanks to Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability and explosive playmaking. If they secure a playoff spot, it’s likely through a division win, which means home-field advantage and a potential high-scoring showdown with the Bills – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 0%)
- Playoff Odds: 79% (Last week 65%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 12% (Last week 9%)
- Draftable Players: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews
Outside Looking In
7. Los Angeles Chargers
What a bye week for Los Angeles! Everything that could go wrong for their playoff chances did. It’s going to be really hard for them to make the playoffs, a literally coin flip. I am pausing on drafting them.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 1%)
- Playoff Odds: 50% (Last week 79%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 2% (Last week 7%)
- Draftable Players: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Oronde Gadsen. You could easily make a case to go deeper if you believe the Chargers are a contender right now.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Bye Odds: 1%
- Playoff Odds: 71%
- Super Bowl Odds: 3%
- Draftable Players:
NFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are firing on all cylinders. Their offense is electric, Stafford is playing at an elite level, and the defense keeps creating momentum-shifting plays. Puka continues to dominate with elite volume and separation, while Kyren’s workload makes him one of the most valuable backs in the playoffs – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 46% (Last week 25%)
- Playoff Odds: 99% (Last week 98%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 25% (Last week 20%)
- Draftable Players: Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Colby Parkinson. Tutu and Whittington are very thin but could be mixed in, however they use many WR’s.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are clearly a contender, but they haven’t looked dominant. The offense has been inconsistent, and the defense hasn’t been as sharp as in past years. Jalen Hurts is still a threat, but unless the offense finds another gear, it’s hard to treat them as the top Super Bowl bet – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 33% (Last week 58%)
- Playoff Odds: 100% (Last week 100%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 23% (Last week 26%)
- Draftable Players: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
The Rest
3. Seattle Seahawks
This team has the talent to shine on any given gameday, but the inconsistency makes it hard to envision them winning three straight road games. To take the next step, they need to get Rashid Shaheed more involved and unlock his playmaking ability – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 9% (Last week 8%)
- Playoff Odds: 93% (Last week 94%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 22% (Last week 19%)
- Draftable Players: Sam Darnold, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rasheed Shaheed, AJ Barner (TE sites)
4. Detroit Lions
11/29 Quick Update – I’m no longer drafting Lions. This pause may be temporary or permanent.
- Bye Odds: 2% (Last week 2%)
- Playoff Odds: 68% (Last week 79%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 6% (Last week 11%)
- Draftable Players: Jahmyr Gibbs
- Note: I had Sam Laporta listed in Draftable Players as “Sam Laporta (I may hold off on Laporta depending on injury news)”… I did not follow that advice very well.
5. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers fall into the rest for a reason. I don’t believe their current level of play, especially on defense, is strong enough to reach the Super Bowl. I’m keeping the door open in case Brock Purdy’s return transforms the offense into a juggernaut – No Update.
- Bye Odds: 3% (Last week 2%)
- Playoff Odds: 89% (Last week 82%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 4% (Last week 3%)
- Draftable Players: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffery, George Kittle
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa doesn’t stand out much relative to other NFC options, but with Baker Mayfield and playoff odds north of 85%, they’re clearly draftable. For now, I’m treating them as a secondary piece rather than a primary Super Bowl path. I am keeping an eye on Baker’s injury closely to see if it will linger into the playoffs.
- Bye Odds: 0% (Last week 3%)
- Playoff Odds: 87% (Last week 92%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 7% (Last week 8%)
- Draftable Players: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Mike Evans
Outside Looking In
7. Chicago Bears
- Bye Odds: 4%
- Playoff Odds: 71%
- Super Bowl Odds: 4%
- Draftable Players: Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Colston Loveland (TE sites)
8. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay drops out as they have moved from 10% Super Bowl odds, down to 6%. Keeping an eye on Green Bay against Detroit in Week 13. If they head into Detroit and win; that is massive for their outlook.
- Bye Odds: 1% (Last week 1%)
- Playoff Odds: 66% (Last week 73%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 6% (Last week 10%)
- Draftable Players: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed
