Week 9 & Season-to-date Recap
Solid Week 8 with a total of +4.4 units, bringing us to a total of +16.7 units on the season. Through 8 weeks, we have had 5 winning weeks and 3 losing weeks, which is always a good reminder that it can be a bit of a roller coaster, especially when you are fairly frequently attacking ladder opportunities. But we will look to keep it rolling in Week 9.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Week 6:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.2 units)
- Props
- 2-17 (-9.51 units)
- Total
- 4-19 (-9.71 units)
Week 7:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 4-4 (+1.35 units)
- Total
- 7-4 (+5.35units)
Week 8:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.1 units)
- Props
- 9-3 (+5.4975 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+4.3975 units)
Week 9:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.4 units)
- Props
- 10-6 (+5.85 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+5.45 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 24-23 (+3.4 units)
- Props
- 53-45 (+18.7425 units)
- Total
- 75-66 (+22.1425 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Make sure to check back later in the week for updates, especially in the prop section, as those do not generally come out until later in the week, at least the full menu. Every time we make an update, we will send out a post on twitter, as well as a notification in discord. If you are reading this, don’t worry, you have access to the premium discord! Just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord” if you’re not already in there.
Week 10 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX/HOU | Under 37.5 | -109 | Caesars | 1 | CJ Stroud is out this week, and the Jags look set to be missing both Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. on offense. The Texans defense is one of the very best in the league, so the shorthanded Jags should mightily struggle to score here, especially with a lack of weapons. Meanwhile, the Jags defense should get a bit more stout with Davis Mills at QB for the Texans. |
| 2 | CLE/NYJ | Browns -1.5 | -115 | DK | 1 | Can't believe I'm betting the Browns as road favorites, but the Jets went into tank mode at the trade deadline. Their defense has been 3rd worst in football in EPA/play through 9 weeks, and that was before they traded essentially every one of their good players from that side of the ball at the deadline. The Browns should be able to have enough success offensively to put some points on the scoreboard, while the Jets offense is in for a rough day against a still very stout Browns defense. |
| 3 | DET/WAS | Lions o28.5 points | -118 | BetRivers | 2 | This is another prime bounceback spot for the Lions offense, similar to week 2 against the Bears, or simply an eruption spot like their Bengals matchup. The Commanders have the 6th worst defense in football via EPA/play, including the 4th worst passing defense, and they just lost Marshon Lattimore to injury. Fresh off a rough loss to the Vikings, the Lions should take out their frustrations on the Commies, especially given the fact they likely want revenge from a devastating blowout playoff loss last year to this Commanders team. |
| 4 | LAR/SF | Rams o27.5 points | 104 | BetRivers | 1 | The 49ers defense has collapsed thanks to a boatload of injuries on that side of the ball, and the Rams offense should be at full strength in this one. Specifically, the Niners have the lowest pressure rate of any defense in football, which spells disaster against Stafford/Puka/Adams in a game where they will definitely need to score some points against a quality Niners offense. |
Week 10 Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back on Sunday mornings, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Sunday morning or over the weekend.
Additional Week 10 props coming Friday November 7th.
| Props | Game | Prop | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV/DEN | Courtland Sutton o56.5 receiving yards | -112 | FD | 1 | The Broncos receivers are woefully underpriced in this spot. The Raiders represent a clear pass funnel, with the 11th best run defense EPA/play and the 9th worst pass defense. But maybe more importantly, Marvin Mims is out again for the Broncos, which condenses the target tree, as well as the snaps. Last week without Mimis, Sutton played 92% of snaps, Franklin 79% and Bryant 57%. Sutton has gone over this number in 6 of 9 games, while Franklin has earned 28 targets over just the last 3 weeks. Bryant has popped up with 60 yards on 7 targets the last two games with Mims out/missing a large portion of week 8. |
| 2 | LV/DEN | Courtland Sutton 60+ receiving yards | 102 | FD | 0.5 | Sutton ladder. |
| 3 | LV/DEN | Courtland Sutton 70+ receiving yards | 158 | FD | 0.25 | Sutton ladder. |
| 4 | LV/DEN | Courtland Sutton 80+ receiving yards | 230 | FD | 0.25 | Sutton ladder. |
| 5 | LV/DEN | Troy Franklin o43.5 receiving yards | -112 | FD | 1 | The Broncos receivers are woefully underpriced in this spot. The Raiders represent a clear pass funnel, with the 11th best run defense EPA/play and the 9th worst pass defense. But maybe more importantly, Marvin Mims is out again for the Broncos, which condenses the target tree, as well as the snaps. Last week without Mimis, Sutton played 92% of snaps, Franklin 79% and Bryant 57%. Sutton has gone over this number in 6 of 9 games, while Franklin has earned 28 targets over just the last 3 weeks. Bryant has popped up with 60 yards on 7 targets the last two games with Mims out/missing a large portion of week 8. |
| 6 | LV/DEN | Troy Franklin 50+ receiving yards | 124 | FD | 0.5 | Franklin ladder. |
| 7 | LV/DEN | Troy Franklin 60+ receiving yards | 200 | FD | 0.25 | Franklin ladder. |
| 8 | LV/DEN | Troy Franklin 70+ receiving yardrs | 310 | FD | 0.25 | Franklin ladder. |
| 9 | LV/DEN | Pat Bryant o19.5 receiving yards | -118 | MGM | 1 | The Broncos receivers are woefully underpriced in this spot. The Raiders represent a clear pass funnel, with the 11th best run defense EPA/play and the 9th worst pass defense. But maybe more importantly, Marvin Mims is out again for the Broncos, which condenses the target tree, as well as the snaps. Last week without Mimis, Sutton played 92% of snaps, Franklin 79% and Bryant 57%. Sutton has gone over this number in 6 of 9 games, while Franklin has earned 28 targets over just the last 3 weeks. Bryant has popped up with 60 yards on 7 targets the last two games with Mims out/missing a large portion of week 8. |
| 10 | NO/CAR | Rico Dowdle o90.5 rushing yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Dowdle has taken over the Panthers backfield and become one of the league's better rushers in a powerful Panthers rushing attack. He's posted 652 yards on 103 carries since week 5. The Saints run defense has collapsed in recent weeks, allowing 172 yards to Kyren/Corum last week and 205 yards to Swift/Monangai 3 weeks ago. |
