The BBM 3 finally dropped, and one of the biggest questions everyone had was, where would they pull the ADP from? Were there going to be wildly mispriced players?
We got our answer immediately, as some of the ADPs are way off from where they will settle to over the next few days. But we’re also thrown off by ADP because the last tournament with a similar player pool and structure closed two months ago. Since then, we have all been drafting either Superflex teams, where the first two rounds were full of QBs, Rookies and Sophomore drafts, where only first and second year players can be drafted, or on sites like Drafters with full PPR and a different tournament structure. We can’t just compare the ADP we’ve been drafting from over the last two months to the BBM 3’s ADP to find the most mispriced players.
For example, Amari Cooper closed the Big Board Super Flex with an ADP of 71.5, and he opened the BBM 3 with an ADP of 48. Does that mean his ADP is too high? It might be, but in both cases he was the WR-20 being drafted. So, compared to other players at the same position his ADP hasn’t moved at all.
Some of these changes are to be expected because we have new information since the NFL draft has taken place. But, for many of these players, not much or very little has changed. So, whose prices have moved the most relative to other players at their position in the opening BBM 3 rankings?
QB
Players available later in drafts
The Quarterback market has changed the least out of any market with two of the players with the biggest differences being Mitchell Trubisky and Marcus Mariota. This is to be expected because they were free agents when the Big Board was being drafted. Davis Mills is ranked below six more QBs than he was at the end of the Superflex contest. With the Texans not drafting competition for him, he will likely be moving back up.
Players being drafted higher
One of the obvious players that will be moving down is Malik Willis who is ranked four QB spots ahead of his closing BBM ranking. Trey Lance also ranks four spots ahead, but this may be due to Superflex drafters getting cold feet with Jimmy G still on the roster. He may not move much, but Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford are both a few spots down and could move ahead of him.
Overall, there does not appear to be any new information learned from the difference in QB positional rankings. The same is not true about any of the other positions.
RB
Players available later in drafts
The running back market has some players being drafted well below where they were being drafted a week ago. The two most glaring differences are James Connor and Ronald Jones who are both being ranked behind 12 more running backs than last week. Some other players who are ranked behind seven or more players than before the draft are Marlon Mack, James Cook, Zamir White, JD McKissic, Raheem Mostert, Tyler Algeier, Nyheim Hines, Dameon Pierce, Cordarelle Patterson and Breece Hall. Some of these players had no change in their situation based on the draft, like Mostert, while others had landing spots that a consensus has not been made on yet, like Hall.
Players being drafted higher
Some players reverted back to a spot that they were at before the Superflex started. Kyren Williams is back to a pre-combine zone being ranked ahead of 37 running backs that he was not ranked ahead of last week. There are not any other players who have a price difference that great, but there are still a good number of guys going a lot higher than before, such as Chris Carson, Gus Edwards, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Devin Singletary and Isaiah Spiller. One thing to notice is that the Bills and Chiefs running backs both have a guy going way higher and another going way lower right now. Those prices will likely be converging.
WR
Players available later in drafts
The wide receiver position always has a lot of volatility, so that would be expected with player’s prices as well. There are a number of receivers whose positional ranking is 20 players lower than it was a week ago. Those players are very likely to be moving up. They are Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Christian Watson, Jamison Crowder, James Washington, Courtland Sutton, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick. Other players who are much cheaper are Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Russell Gage, Mike Williams and Mike Evans. It looks like it’s time to get your KC, GB, DEN and TB stacks while they’re cheap.
Players being drafted higher
The wide receiver with the biggest difference in rank from before the draft is Josh Palmer. He may not be moving down too much though based on the results of the draft. Other players whose positional rankings have opened much higher are David Bell, Laviska Shenault, Terrace Marshall, Cedric Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Jameson Williams, Julio Jones, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson, Kendrick Bourne, Byron Pringle, Corey Davis and Brandon Aiyuk. Not all of these players are going to fall in price, but expect a good number of them to.
TE
Players available later in drafts
There are some great values right now at tight end compared to the end of the Superflex drafts. Hayden Hurst is going 15 spots lower than a week ago. Other players going much lower are Austin Hooper, Rob Gronkowski, Robert Tonyan, Mo Alie-Cox, Cameron Brate, David Njoku, OJ Howard and Ricky Seals-Jones. Most of these players have the same situation as before the draft, while some drafters might be waiting on the Tampa Bay situation to work itself out.
Players being drafted higher
Dan Arnold opened 14 spots higher than he was a week ago; he is clearly going to be dropping. Most of the tight ends whose price is too high right now are the rookie tight ends. These players will likely be swapping places with the players from the previous list, but another two players whose rank stands out as being much higher are Noah Fant and CJ Uzomah.
This is not meant to tell you who to draft, but don’t be surprised if you draft based on ADP alone and end up having a bunch of players who are going way later two weeks from now. Good luck, and we hope this helps you win your share of $10 Million dollars.
