Underdog released the THUNday Night Knockout contest with a $5 price point, 13,752 entries and $9k top prize. It is the same format as the Main Slate contest but with only 4 drafters instead of 6 (constant shift from 3 to 4). For this week, we get the Titans traveling to Green Bay to take on the Packers (-3) with a 41 o/u on Thursday Night and the Chiefs (-6) traveling to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers with a 50.5 o/u on Sunday Night.
Reminder that you can also user our FREE Rankings for Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale “Showdown” tournaments to help aid in your drafts alongside this article. They are updated for every new slate each week (3x per week).
Let’s dig in.
Draft Strategy for Week 11 Thursday + Sunday Night Football Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale
The main takeaway from looking at this slate is that I am very glad Underdog made this a 4-team draft slate. The slate is filled with top end talent that would lead to some super teams. A big concern is the injury report for the Sunday game is like a CVS receipt. Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Gerald Everett are all on the injury report to start the week. This creates some leverage in predicting the primary beneficiaries if they were to miss. If you can get them at a depressed price tag rather than as a default swap that may fault you up leaderboards The Titans and Packers are bottom 10 in PROE the last 4 weeks (last and 6th worst). Meanwhile the Chiefs are 1st in PROE over the last 4 weeks and the Chargers are 7th. With the way these teams play expect an increase in pace and play in the Sunday night game and a slower paced game on Thursday. This is expected by Vegas with the increased point total on Sunday.
These contests have been shuffling between 3 and 4 man drafts, for this slate we get 4-man drafts. It is relatively easy to get different on this slate as the player pool is full of injury concerns. Depending on how those injuries shake out, you may be able to get highly projected players later in drafts creating super teams.
With the significant change to 4 person drafts, it personally makes me prioritize the QB position. Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are the best plays and constantly go in the top 4 or 5 picks. They carry the most upside in terms of floor and ceiling among the QBs and are top 5 fantasy QBs. Mahomes is playing at MVP level despite the Chiefs revamping their receiving core. He has not missed a beat. Herbert on the other hand has been pretty pedestrian. He has more games under 20 points than over. He has been dealing with injuries to his WR core but should still be performing at a higher level. He is a risky pick in drafts but gets a bump in value due to the matchup/pace of play. After them, I consider Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill to be in a similar tier since their teams prefer to run the football. This leaves them with limited TD upside which is important in ceiling outcomes. They should struggle to top 250 passing yards and therefore I am most likely waiting until the last round if I fall to get Mahomes or Herbert. It is important to note that I will not get much of Rodgers with this strategy as he typically goes in the mid-rounds.
For pass catchers, the ownership will naturally condense around Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarious Toney, Christian Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Josh Palmer. As mentioned earlier, injuries add extreme uncertainty to this slate with 4 of the top 7 projector WRs questionable. This will make it pretty easy to get different. Due to his 3TD explosion on Sunday, Christian Watson will scream up draft boards. He filled in as the #2 WR with Romeo Doubs hurt, playing 84% of the snaps. He saw 8 targets and finally looked healthy. He should be a priority due to the second half bump rookie WRs see (on an offense with plenty of opportunity). It is important to note that with Watson seeing an increase of snaps, it came at Sammy Watkins expense. He only played 33% of snaps and is a distant WR3. Treylon Burks falls into a similar scenario as Watson sans the TDs. He returned to the lineup yesterday and saw 75% route participation and tied for the team lead with an 18% target share. The Titans want to get their 1st round pick involved. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine shined with Ryan Tannehill back in the lineup. He tied Burks with a team leading 8 targets and operated as the WR2 in the offense. Due to the ineffectiveness of Robert Woods in the passing game, Nick may see an expanded role moving forward. However, Woods does provide strong run-blocking which is important to how the Titans play football (through Derrick Henry). Williams and Allen were back at practice in limited fashion to start the week. If they miss, Josh Palmer (Williams role), DeAndre Carter (Allen role) and Michael Bandy will see an increase in playtime. They have all played 80+% of snaps in the 2 games without Williams and Allen. A forgotten name in drafts in Mecole Hardman. Although he was only a part time player prior to missing last week, the Chiefs were actively trying to get him the ball in space. It will be interesting to see if Toney has taken over that role or if they slot Mecole in those positions once he returns to health.
On the RB end, Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones headline the slate. They all come with 100+ yards and 2-TD upside. But both Henry and Jones carry risk. Henry would be phased out in negative game-scripts and Jones is phased out in positive game-scripts. Based on this, direct leverage off Henry is Dontrell Hilliard who plays ~40% of snaps and is the primary pass-catching back and direct leverage off Jones is AJ Dillon. The Chiefs split work between Isaiah Pacheco, Jerrick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. McKinnon is most involved in the passing game which includes the 2 minute work and uptempo offense. Pacheco is the primary ball carrier and goal line back and CEH has been phased out of the offense. Ekeler is the safest play on the slate despite only playing around 70% of snaps he is so involved around the goal line and in both the running and passing games. He hasn’t scored less than 9 points in a game this season. If he were to get hurt, I would expect Isaiah Spiller to take over his role and break the slate in these scenarios.
The TE slate is Travis Kelce and the rest. Most of the ownership will fall on Gerald Everett (hurt), Robert Tonyan, and Austin Hooper as all 3 are the primary TEs playing 60+% of snaps for their teams. They are serviceable pass catchers (all being TE1s in the past) with little competition behind them. An interesting name is Chigoziem Okonkwo who is only playing 35% of snaps but is used down the field (40+ yard receptions the last two weeks). If he can break one into the end-zone, it won’t be difficult for him to crack the optimal. Tre’ McKitty would be the primary beneficiary if Everett is ruled out.
Top Plays for Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale Drafts
- Patrick Mahomes – Best QB option
- Austin Ekeler – Safest RB with a massive ceiling
- Derrick Henry – The big dog should eat against the Packers D-Line
- Travis Kelce – Primary pass catcher that is a cheat code at TE
Players That Could Differentiate Your Lineup
- Treylon Burks – Titans want him to be involved
- Chigoziem Okonkwo – Deep-threat TE
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine – WR2 for the Titans with a 3.5 point projection.
- Mecole Hardman – Used in space and being undervalued due to injury and addition of Toney (who played <50% of snaps)
