Introduction
Happy Best Ball Summer! Despite a whirlwind year of attending double-digit weddings and planning my own, I’m back in the lab, crunching numbers and creating visualizations to give you the edge you need in your best ball tournaments this summer. Today, let’s dissect the strategies that have been dominating the wide receiver (WR) builds in Best Ball Mania over the past few years.
In this study, I’ll employ a straightforward methodology to review what has been going on. We’ll start by examining the frequency of WR selections, then layer on draft capital expenditure buckets for BBMII, BBMIII, and BBMIV. Using Spike Week’s draft capital curve, I categorized drafts into 20% buckets, ranging from the top 80th to 100th percentile (tier 5) to the bottom 0 to 20th percentile (tier 1) for that given year. Additionally, we’ll analyze advance rates for each build by draft capital bucket. For the purposes of this study, we are going to ignore the “advance rate is inherently a flawed statistic because we aren’t playing to advance, and so on and so forth” conversation, shake hands, agree it’s something to be discussed for another day, and leverage it as the commonly understood metric that has some utility when evaluating strategies and draft structures. Keeping it simple is a great place to start one’s analysis and I am excited to share my results. Let’s get going!
Best Ball Mania II
In BBMII, the average number of wide receivers selected was 7.96. In this tournament there were a variety of wide receiver rooms being built, but the most common builds included 8, followed by 9 and 7.
There were many different ways to win in BBMII, with a variety of wide receiver room constructions performing above the base 16.67% expectation. That being said, there is one noteworthy pocket of draft types that popped on this visual. 6 wide receivers selected and tier 4 and 5 (60th-100th percentile wide receiver capital spent) builds, while representing only ~1.6% of the drafting population, these were the clear best advance rates in the tournament. This extremely infrequently used structural strategy was a bit of a cheat code, but it was so infrequently used that it didn’t really change the narrative around the dominance of the zero RB strategy in these major best ball tournaments.
Best Ball Mania III
Moving to BBMIII, the average number of wide receivers selected slightly decreased to 7.71. In this tournament 7 and 8 wide receiver builds were the most common with 9 and 10 decreasing in frequency quite a bit. At this point the draft meta around wide receivers was starting to become better understood and the market started to consolidate its drafting strategy.
The advance rate shape was incredibly clear. Max wide receiver investment while drafting a lesser number was dominant. Staying ahead of the shifting wide receiver market benefited drafters, even if it was uncomfortable. The scoring environment also married well with the zero RB/max WR draft strategy as early wide receivers dominated and there were multiple middle and late round running backs that drove drafters to success.
Best Ball Mania IV
In BBMIV, the trend of declining average wide receiver selections continued, with an average of 7.54 wide receivers per team. The market convergence continued as 7 and 8 wide receiver build frequency was at its highest. It seemed that at this point it was agreed upon that this was the best way to build optimal best ball lineups. Additionally, the wide receiver pricing was at an all time high and there were many conversations about how to combat this new landscape.
The advance rate shape was quite familiar. Max wide receiver investment while drafting a lesser number was the play. Just like in the past, staying ahead of the shifting wide receiver market through drafting them early benefited drafters. It felt painful at times but leaning into this market was a key to success. The noticeable difference in this year was the fringe tier 5 builds fell off quite a bit. In this updated best ball landscape of increased wide receiver prices and a generally sharper field, just selecting early wide receivers wasn’t enough but doing it correctly was requisite to making the build work.
Takeaway
“There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.” George W. Bush https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl7FKfl3O2Y … Those that have been here at Spike Week for a while don’t need more convincing on the importance of drafting wide receivers early and often but this is now multiple years in a row where the hot spot on the advance rate matrix has been “significant WR investment yet a lesser number drafted”. This held true, even after a rapidly changing ADP environment that moved against the build, but the conversation every summer seems to be about the nonsensical prices of wide receivers/the values that can be had at the other positions in rounds 2 through 6. Thanks for reading this data driven study and stay on the lookout for the sister post on running backs (spoiler, the above doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t invest in running backs early too).
