Back when the NCAA Football video game was a thing (man I can’t wait for it to come back), I was that sick individual who always signed up to play with Air Force. Every year, I’d go grab the game on release day from my local Game Stop, rush home to start playing, and fire up dynasty mode immediately with my favorite military school. (I grew up and still live right next to an Air Force Base, so what can I say, I’m partial to the Air Force Academy).
Maybe it’s just the football purist in me, but there’s something about the Triple Option offense that just makes you feel like you’re doing football the right way. But from a schematic sense and even game theory sense, the triple option is an incredibly profound way to play the game of football. Sure, when you get to higher levels of football where athletes nowadays are just too physically dominant and athletically gifted, the offense doesn’t quite have the juice to overcome some limitations. But when you are on a level playing field or you’re even at a skill or talent disadvantage, utilizing a scheme like the Triple Option can be an incredibly effective way to win football games.
And in a funny and ironic way, it actually has a lot of parallels to how we can think about Best Ball strategy.
At its core, the Triple Option is about as basic of an offensive scheme as you can get. As the name dictates, on any given play, the offense has 3 different options to choose from, but the option that they execute is not decided before the play. In fact, it’s decided on the fly during the play. After the ball is snapped, the QB will either hand the ball off the fullback up the middle, keep the ball and run himself after faking to the fullback, or pitch the ball to the wing back who is in motion behind him. But it’s up to the QB to decide which of those will happen on any given play, and that is decided by the QB reading what his opponent, the defense, is doing in real-time during the play.
But the greatest aspects, in my opinion, of the Triple Option really don’t have much to do with the actual execution of the play. From a high level perspective, this scheme is about two fundamental ideas – execution and exploitation.
First and foremost, the triple option scheme is grounded in the idea that the offense is going to execute at an extremely high level on every single play. In practice, you run the same play(s) over… and over… and over. And in the games you run the same play(s) over… and over… and over. The defense knows what’s coming, but you’re going to execute so well every single play that it really doesn’t matter.
The other aspect to the execution side of things is that this offense is never really going to beat itself. Sure, you aren’t going to be seeing a bunch of 80 yard bombs, but even when the offense isn’t ripping off big plays, it’s constantly churning out 2 or 3 yards every play. Don’t beat yourself and always give yourself a chance to be in at worst a neutral situation on the next play.
When you’re executing and staying in good situations, this allows you to exploit your opponent. Football in general is a physical game, a tiring game, and a very mentally taxing game. Particularly against the triple option, defenders have to do their exact job on every single play. You’ve probably heard the cliché “assignment football”, but that’s really what defense against the triple option is. Every defender has a very specific assignment, and often times it’s not even to tackle the player with the ball. Everyone has responsibilities to take away each of the 3 options the offense has on that play, and if one of those defenders does not maintain that responsibility, it can open up the offense for a successful play because the QB is trained (and executes) to read the defense on the fly and spot when the defense makes that mistake.
Especially at lower levels of football like high school, this piece is really where you see this offense thrive. Over the course of an entire football game, it’s almost inevitable that defenders will make mistakes. They won’t take care of their assignment on a particular play, and BOOM the offense generates a big play. Then, you might see the defense overcompensate on the next play, the QB reads it, and BANG another big play in a different where the defense has not maintained their responsibilities. While of course execution is necessary for any offense to succeed, the triple option ultimately thrives in exploiting the weaknesses and missteps of its opponent.
That’s why, in a crazy way, crafting your Best Ball strategy is really just like running a Triple Option offense. You’re playing against 11 other individuals. You’re doing the same thing (drafting) over and over again. And your goal isn’t to put up the most points, be the most innovative, or implement the newest and most off the wall strategy.
Your goal is simply to beat your opponents. Whether by an inch or by a mile, the teams that win life changing money in Best Ball are simply those who beat their opponents. You don’t win extra money for winning by a larger amount of points. You just need to finish 1st.
Execute & Exploit
I recently wrote about how our best ball strategy should be exploitative, as opposed to trying to predict the future better than our opponents. And since we are trying to exploit our opponents, every best ball season and even every tournament or site we are drafting on brings new challenges and potential areas to exploit. ADPs change, the player pool changes, real NFL teams change and our opponents draft differently.
Drafting Best Ball teams is so much like running the triple option because you’re ultimately doing the same thing over and over, while theoretically executing well. You know what history tells us is a smart way to construct teams. You’ve done your research on identifying the players you want to target (or fade). You’ve practiced, and you know how to draft. But the key to giving yourself the best chance to win – the best chance to beat your opponents – is by exploiting them over the course of an entire “game” (aka a draft season). Every draft is like a singular play in a football game. Before the play, you don’t really know if it’s going to be the touchdown. You’ll find that out after it’s over (in the case of Best Ball, after Week 17). Sometimes you’ll get a 3 yard run, and sometimes you’ll get a long touchdown run. But if you keep executing, eventually your opponents will misstep, and you’ll hit on that right combination of players that unlocks your big score.
But in order to take advantage of that misstep and capture that big score, you have to trying to be attempting to exploit your opponents in the first place. The entire goal of the triple option offense is exploitation. To effectively exploit our opponents in Best Ball, we first have to identify where the ares of exploitation even are.
With all of this in mind, I’ve spent a ton of time drafting, studying the landscape and analyzing what my opponents are doing so far in this 2023 best ball draft season. I’ve experimented with tons of different roster constructions, stacking strategies, player takes and everything under the sun in search of the areas where I believe we can most easily exploit our opponents.
And that’s where the Best Ball Triple Option comes in.
The Best Ball Triple Option Strategy
First, we need to make sure we understand that this particular strategy is probably not going to be the *best* strategy every single year. As we said, our opponents aren’t going to do the same things every year, and many other things change year-to-year, so what is the *best* exploitative strategy in one year could actually be the worst in another year. Also, in an incredible occurrence of irony, I had this thought about the triple option metaphor a while back, long before I really honed in my thoughts on specifically what strategy I thought was best for 2023. And as you’ll see, this particular strategy also employs it’s own version of 3 options on each best ball team similar to that of the actual triple option.
So I’m pretty sure that means it’s good. Everything happens for a reason, or something like that.
The Best Ball Landscape
Before we dive into how to implement this strategy, we do need to quickly discuss the current best ball landscape because ultimately that’s the driving force behind how we determine how to exploit our opponents.
In 2023, there are a few different variables we are seeing play out that are massively important to consider:
- Elite QB pricing is at a modern day, all-time high. It’s almost a throwback to the old days when QBs were often taken in the first few rounds of drafts.
- However, the lesser QBs are still priced extremely cheaply with many starting QBs, including those with very real upside, going in the later rounds of drafts. These QBs are of course not on the level of Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts from a fantasy perspective, and many of them have plenty of uncertainty, but we also know that QB is the most projectable position, as well as the fact that uncertainty, particularly on young players or new situations, is where upside often lies and where the market can be the most wrong.
- Running backs are cheaper than ever. The WR bros have won, particularly on Underdog. We have RBs going in the 3rd round who have historically been 1st round picks, and we have RBs going in the mid to late rounds who were much more like “Dead Zone” price backs in the past.
- Wide Receivers are more expensive than ever. 7-8 WRs in go in the 1st round of drafts, and the WR thirst has pulled up some a good amount of players with real uncertainty into very early rounds (I.E. Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Watson, etc.). We all have certain later round WRs we like just fine, but once you get past something like round 8 (again on Underdog, it’s a bit later on DK), the quality of WR falls off a cliff.
- Tight Ends are Buy One Get One Free. We still have a few of the elite TEs priced reasonably high (although they’re collectively cheaper than last year), but the best ball community has pushed a vast majority of the position to later round. There are several starting NFL tight ends with real upside and a locked in role going in the last round of drafts or at least last few rounds. In fact, using our Spike Week Best Ball Player Projections, the late round TEs actually straight up project for more raw points on a weekly basis than the late round RBs and WRs.
Now that we know all of this, let’s summarize some general thoughts around what this all means for us. With WRs priced like NBA Top Shots during the start of the pandemic, it’s critically important that we capture some of the high end WRs on our best ball teams. While I do personally have a natural inclination for Zero RB, this is not at all a Zero RB promotion (more on that in a bit). It simply means that the market has priced up just about any WR with real upside, and at the end of the day, the price is the price. We cannot be stubborn because in year’s past WRs weren’t this expensive. We still have to build teams that have the juice to beat our opponents. We still have to execute a draft capable of winning these tournaments.
We also know that RBs are cheaper now, but because of this they also offer the best “value” on the board for nearly the entire draft. Starting in the mid to late 1st round, running backs flat out project for a higher weekly score than every non-QB for the entire draft until we hit that super late pocket of the draft where we see those TEs pop up. Of course a strategy like Zero RB can be very effective in a climate like this, but we do want to ensure we are getting enough juice at the RB position over the course of the first 10-12 rounds because that’s where we have both “value” from a projection standpoint, standalone value, certainty, and the highest amount of contingent value or overall upside at the position.
This is not to slight the elite TEs, because as BBM3 champ Pat Kerrane outlined, elite TE was still very valuable last year and it has plenty of merit in 2023. But we would be foolish to ignore what we are seeing in the tight end landscape. The community has decided TEs are largely worthless, which has led to double digit round TEs with very appealing upside cases (and even sometimes floors), as well as really highly projected players at the position going in the very last rounds of drafts.
I’m also not trying to slander elite QBs. Those highly drafted QBs are superstars. We know we are getting high floors and the highest ceilings at the position with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen. But they are priced up next to these discounted elite RBs or in a range where the last of the elite WRs are being drafted. The opportunity cost is very high. The 2nd and 3rd tiers of QBs are also pretty pricey because they’re seemingly being drug up by the gravitational pull of these elite options. I like Trevor Lawrence as much as the next guy, but he’s being drafted where Jalen Hurts went last season. And for the QBs, the difference between them and the WRs is that it’s not a situation where “the price is the price.” In bullet two above, it’s noted that while the elite options are going much higher, we actually still have a plethora of extremely viable options at the position going at reasonable prices later in drafts or even in the very last rounds. For example, using our projections, Joe Burrow projects for ~ 21 points per game. Trevor Lawrence projects for 20. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy projects for 17. Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell all project for more than 16. That’s a small gap in projection, but the ADP gap is 10+ rounds.
Executing the Best Ball Triple Option
Now that we’ve theorized about this Triple Option concept, and we’ve laid out the nuances to how the 2023 landscape is coming together, how do we package it all up into a strategy that we can execute in our drafts and use to exploit our opponents over our entire best ball portfolio?
Instead of starting at the beginning of the draft, we actually need to start at the end.
We know that there are two positions that are the most advantageous in the later rounds of drafts – Quarterback and Tight End. If we understand that is something we can exploit about the market going in, that can allow us to navigate the first half of the draft more effectively. It allows to essentially know what the end result of our draft should look like before the draft even starts. Here’s that end result:
- 3 Late-ish Round QBs
- 3 Late-ish Round TEs
- A combination of 12 RBs and WRs (or 14 on DraftKings and Drafters) with most, if not all, being selected in our first 12-14 picks (or 14-16 on DK and Drafters)
- Correlate ALL 3 of your TEs with their QB teammate
With the current ADP, here are all the QBs going outside the top 100 who also have their teammate TE(s) available outside of the top 100
- Geno Smith
- Aaron Rodgers
- Jared Goff
- Russell Wilson
- Derek Carr
- Jordan Love
- Matthew Stafford
- Kyler Murray
- Kenny Pickett
- Bryce Young
- CJ Stroud
- Sam Howell
- Mac Jones
- Jimmy Garoppolo
- Baker Mayfield
- Ryan Tannehill
That’s 16 of the 32 starting NFL QBs. Half of the entire league is available to you to build out these stacks outside of the top 100 picks in drafts. Over the years, we have learned that stacking pass catchers with QBs is a great way to win best ball tournaments for multiple reasons. It allows you to get less things right, both over the course of a season, as well as in any individual week (I.E. Week 17). The correlation also creates correlated big games, or spike weeks, which is important for not only scoring the most points over the course of the season, but of course scoring the most points in a given week. When we combine that correlation element with the fact that these QBs and TEs also offer us the most “value” at the point in the draft in which they are being selected, as well as the power and upside that enables us to accumulate at RB and WR, we have a massive potential edge.
In a vacuum, I don’t actually love the idea of drafting 3 QBs and/or 3 TEs. But that’s why price, draft structure and the landscape are so important. If you use all your early picks on the RB/WR positions, you are strong there. Probably the strongest team in your draft at RB/WR/Flex. You are weakest at both QB and TE. By drafting 3 of each of those positions AND correlating them, you get several different benefits. If we assume later round picks are the equivalent to something like $1 or $2 in an auction draft, even by taking 3 you’re still only spending $3-5 on the position. By taking 3, you give yourself outs to several different winning outcomes. At both QB and TE, you give yourself 3 different options on a weekly basis to provide your lineup with either a usable score or a spike week that matches the top scorers at the position. Generally speaking, that’s most likely the goal. You’re almost assuredly not going to have a QB who scores more points over the season than Patrick Mahomes or matches the number of spike weeks he posts. But between your 3 players, they can “ping pong” their good games, giving you a score that is more than good enough to dominate your league or navigate your way through the playoff weeks.
But there’s two other perks. By having 3 shots on the positions, you also give yourself 3 outs to finding a “break out” player. You don’t need all of them (or not even any of them necessarily) to break out and become higher picks like Tua, Lawrence, Geno, Fields and Daniel Jones did in 2022. But you do give yourself more outs to finding that, plus you are set up to gain the most from actually finding that player via your roster construction. Last year, if you were a mega sharp who was drafting Geno Smith, that was a huge hit. But if you drafted him with Patrick Mahomes, he actually didn’t even gain many points for your team. But if you combined Geno, Daniel Jones and Mac Jones together onto a team, even though Mac Jones was a big miss, you still hit so big on the other two players that you were using their scores every week and hanging in there with those elite QBs despite spending almost nothing at the position. The same can be said for TE.
Additionally, it’s important to note that we want to stack our late round TEs with our QBs. There will be drafts where you get sniped on what you’re trying to implement. You’re setting up the Mac Jones – Hunter Henry stack, and some a**hole takes Hunter Henry as his 5th TE for no reason. It happens, and it’s ok. Your team is not dead, and not having that correlation is not the end of the world. But we do want to set out to target that correlation because of the power it brings to the team. Not only do you get the potential breaks out as discussed above, but the breakouts can often be correlated. If Sam Howell is actually good, or if Bryce Young is a star as a rookie, he can elevate his late round TE far beyond the production levels of the other late round TEs because he’s attached to a very strong QB. The opposite of that is also true, if Luke Musgrave turns out to be the 2nd coming of Travis Kelce, he can elevate Jordan Love’s fantasy production because he’s an elite weapon at that QB’s disposal. Lastly, even if neither the QB or the TE truly break out, if the offense as a whole exceeds expectations (like the Seahawks in 2022), there is just a larger pie than the market is suggesting for those two players to eat from. That means more touchdowns and more fantasy points.
There are so many different paths to hitting with these player combinations, and we are giving ourselves 3 different shots on goal in an attempt to find these massively outsized gains. And they’re correlated!
When it comes to RB and WR in this Triple Option strategy, this is the easiest part, but also one we can be thoughtful about in our drafts. The goal is ultimately to just build a super strong stable of RB/WR, but this strategy also offers us a ton of flexibility at these positions. You can build those positions in basically any way you see fit. You can still build a Zero RB type team by starting with a bunch of superstar WRs and grabbing something like 5 mid-round backs. You can build a more balanced approach, or you can slam a Robust RB team with 3-4 early stud RBs and use those as your team’s anchor, which would allow you to build with 8-9 WRs. As you draft, you can also break ties at the WR position with players who have QBs in that later bucket that you know you’ll be targeting. When deciding between Christian Watson and Keenan Allen, maybe you choose Watson because you know Jordan Love is a later round QB that is someone you’ll be considering. Or if you really want to galaxy brain Week 17 correlation, you can break ties in favor of players who play against teams you may be targeting your QB/TE from later, like say Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel when you may be targeting Howell and Logan Thomas late in the draft. These are certainly not a must, but they shine a light on how many different tactics you can put into play by running the ‘ol triple option in your drafts.
A key element to consider is that if you are a stickler for ADP, then this strategy is going to be a bit tougher for you. Sometimes things will line up well for you in a draft, and you can implement this with all your players at or after ADP. But often times, you are going to have to reach just a bit to built out your team. You’re also going to have to forego some potential fallers that do not fit in the strategy in certain drafts. I’ve passed on TJ Hockenson 15 picks past ADP in drafts because he did not fit the structure of the team I was building. That doesn’t mean you have to do it, you can obviously always scoop that value in a draft and try again with the triple option next time. But it’s something to keep in mind.
The other ADP element to keep in mind is that this strategy really takes into account the price adjustment of ADP. What I mean by that is once we get beyond a certain point of the draft (somewhere in the double digit rounds), ADP is really far less valuable. Just because a QB is going at pick 200 does not mean it’s a bad decision to take him at pick 180 when he fits exactly what you’re trying to accomplish for that team. The exploitative strategy is FAR more important than the difference in player you’d be adding to the team by waiting on him. We’re talking about the difference between Wan’Dale Robinson and Josh Downs, which is ultimately really nothing. But the difference in gaining your stack and gaining that QB and TE in your structure is very important. On top of that, some of these players simply don’t go in ADP ranges where they match up together if you take them all at ADP. Your structure may dictate that you take 3 TEs on that team that all have last round ADPs. Sure, you’re “reaching” for 1-2 of them, and you may have reached for a QB or two as well. But the difference in player at ADP that deep into the draft is so negligible that the benefits far outweigh the negative ADP value in this particular instance. That’s not always the case, but in this one it is certainly true, and it is also naturally giving you a very unique combination of players on the team that almost no one in the entire tournament has.
Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that clearly all the QBs (and their TE counterparts) have a wide range of ADP. How you implement this strategy with Geno Smith compared to Mac Jones is clearly going to be different, but that’s sort of the beauty in it. There are basically an unlimited number of permutations that you can build across your portfolio, and they’ll all offer slightly different structures. I’ve built versions of this where my first 12 picks are all RBs and WRs, and I use my last 6 picks in a row to draft QBs and their TE teammate. I’ve also built versions of it with Geno Smith, Derek Carr and Jrodan Love at QB with Noah Fant, Foster Moreau and Luke Musgrave at TE. The possibilities are really endless and each drafter can experiment with how they prefer to implement it, or just cycle through all sorts of different combinations.
Alright, now it’s time to get out in the backyard and start running triple option drills. Or just grab your phone and lay on the couch and draft some best ball teams using this strategy. Either way.
