Last week was my bachelor party, so I was unable to help out with the Spike Score introduction article. Going forward, we plan to provide you with a variety of follow-up pieces using our unique best ball statistic to analyze standouts from prior years in an effort to gain an edge in this year’s tournaments. Today’s analysis is simple: we are going to plot per game Half PPR scoring vs. per game Spike Score. Not all summary statistics of the same underlying data tell the same story and this will help to see which players really popped in the best ball format last year.
Quarterback
- Kyler had a low Spike Score per game relative to his points per game, indicating a limited ceiling but a strong floor in his return from injury. We expect a better version of him this year, given he is fully healthy and with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. However, this plot has me concerned about his ceiling if he doesn’t return to his pre-injury rushing form.
- Josh Allen was a standout and is still being drafted at QB1. The next tier includes Jalen Hurts (QB2), Lamar Jackson (QB3), and Dak Prescott (QB9). Dak is particularly interesting; as most drafters are only targeting him when stacking with his pass catchers due to his lack of rushing production, the plot suggests he might be underpriced as a standalone asset.
Running Back
- The names surrounding Travis Etienne all go a good bit higher, outside of James Conner. His role within the offense has been stable since last year with no meaningful competition added, and the Jaguars offense seems to be a trendy pick by many analysts for a rebound. As one of the best performers in this metric last year, he is an awesome anchor RB that can be found in the 4th/5th rounds.
- Rachaad White had a very low Spike Score relative to points per game. He has moved up to RB14 near the round 5/6 turn and appears to be a classic dead zone candidate boosted by prior year volume.
Wide Receiver
- I have drafted Chris Olave a single time in Best Ball 2024 and I think that will be it. He is about as oatmeal as a pick as it gets, and the Saints don’t have any fun seasoning on the roster to make me want this flavor. The addition of Klint Kubiak is not enough new blood to change my perspective.
- Two boring players that I have been targeting are Amon-Ra St. Brown and Michael Pittman. Both have much lower Spike Scores than their points per game would indicate, meaning these players are less valuable in the best ball format. I am going to continue to build the Amon-Ra and 49ers Week 17 game stacks out as that is one of my favorite games to target but I am likely to pivot to cheaper Indy options after seeing this Pittman figure from last year.
Tight End
- How the heck is George Kittle not an elite TE? He was the Spike Score per game leader in 2023, and the offensive system is incredibly stable and dynamic. I plan to be very overweight Kittle at his current price.
- Trey McBride sandwiching Kelce and Andrews in ADP is quite aggressive. He had his moments of brilliance last year, but his current ADP is providing no room for the possibility that it could have been a fluke and/or Marvin Harrison Jr. might monopolize the passing targets. A half-year of production is pretty thin compared to the other elite TEs.
Analyzing Spike Score versus per game Half PPR scoring highlights players’ who performed better or worse in 2023 best ball than their per game scoring would indicate. Josh Allen and Travis Etienne stood out as potential strong values, while I now have questions about Kyler Murray and Rachaad White. Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more best ball specific analysis here at Spike Week.
