Stack. Advance. Ship.
I’m seriously considering going hard on the Seattle Seahawks this week. They’ve locked up the bye, are dominant at home, and boast an elite defensive unit—period. That said, it doesn’t mean I’m ignoring the Rams (target 30%) at their lowest price point, and I’m definitely looking forward to building a few Philly (target 20%) lineups. As a result, I’ll be spreading my NFC exposure slightly, though my lean is clearly toward Seattle, probably 50% of my teams this week.
On the AFC side, I feel strongly about the Broncos (target 33%), Patriots (target 33%), and Jaguars (target 33%). While the Bills are obvious contenders, they’re not a priority for me unless I’m auto-drafting Josh Allen. The Broncos’ run game is downright frightening, especially in a playoff setting, which naturally pushes me toward even exposure to both New England and Jacksonville. I’ll be building roughly 10–20% of my teams as double byes this week due to the field being risk adverse and avoiding this strategy.
There are a handful of one-off and advanced race pieces I really like targeting this week: Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, Romeo Doubs, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee, Travis Etienne, Parker Washington and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Here are my current Super Bowl matchups in the DraftKings $3M Playoff Special via DraftIQ’s Playoff Combos through 96 drafts:
- Spike Week Rankings for DraftKings, Underdog and Drafters
- All odds are from the Spike Week Playoff Odds
- Read about my Playoff Best Ball: Conscious Drafting Plan
AFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Denver Broncos
Hey hey, we called the Broncos as the AFC sleeper pick about a month ago and they’ve now locked up the #1 seed. They are as fair as bet as any in the AFC and would play one fewer game if they advance to the Super Bowl. Their run game scares me away from pushing all in. I am back in on Pat Bryant.
- Bye Odds: 100% (Last week 76%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 36% (Last week 32%)
- Draftable Players: Bo Nix, RJ Harvey, Cortland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, Evan Engram (TE sites)
T2. New England Patriots
I don’t think it’s crazy to full fade them or use as strictly one off pieces. Consensus in the Best Ball market favors the Patriots over the Broncos, this led me heavy Broncos and I am okay with that. I do still personally want to mix the Patriots in.
- Super Bowl Odds: 16% (Last week 18%)
- Draftable Players: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Kyle Williams, Mack Hollins, Hunter Henry
T2. Jacksonville Jaguars
I’ll be playing Jacksonville as both advance rate pieces and also as a potential Super Bowl team in the wide open AFC.
- Super Bowl Odds: 14% (Last week 15%)
- Draftable Players: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., Brenton Strange (TE sites)
4. Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is a superhero, and James Cook suddenly decided he’s done being a side character. After that, though, the roster feels like a bunch of guys who wandered onto the field because they won a radio contest. I just can’t talk myself into believing in this team. The real mystery is whether my skepticism makes me look smart or makes me look like I outsmarted myself.
- Super Bowl Odds: 10% (Last week 10%)
- Draftable Players: Josh Allen, James Cook, Ty Johnson, Khalil Shakir, Tyrell Shavers, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox.
The Rest
5. Los Angeles Chargers
I’m really liking the Chargers for bye-week coverage. The price is right, and grabbing one or two of them should give me enough points to advance. I just have no idea which one or two it will be.
- Super Bowl Odds: 5% (Last week 6%)
- Draftable Players: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden.
6. Houston Texans
Yeah, the defense is legit. No argument there. But a deep playoff run? I’m not exactly clearing my February schedule. The hype train has them penciled in as a Super Bowl threat, and I’m just not seeing it. Maybe they snag a win or two if things break right, but three in a row feels like a fantasy I’m not investing in.
- Super Bowl Odds: 11% (Last week 11%)
- Draftable Players: CJ Stroud, Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, Dalton Schultz (TE sites)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m not drafting Pittsburgh unless I am absolutely stuck.
- Super Bowl Odds: 9%
- Draftable Players: Kenny Gainwell, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Pat Freiermuth (TE sites)
NFC
Super Bowl Contenders
1. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle, you’ve officially earned my attention by locking up the No. 1 seed in the NFC. I’m making up for lost time with the Seahawks this week—but I’m doing it with intention, not by coming in hot just for the sake of it. I’m taking Cooper Kupp ahead of Shaheed.
- Bye Odds: 100% (Last week 45%)
- Super Bowl Odds: 28% (Last week 18%)
- Draftable Players: Sam Darnold, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rasheed Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner (TE sites)
2. Los Angeles Rams
The offense is great, Stafford looks elite, and the defense keeps flipping games with timely plays. I’ve already got plenty of exposure here, so I’ll be allocating more draft capital to the other two contenders.
- Super Bowl Odds: 20% (Last week 19%)
- Draftable Players: Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Konata Mumpfield, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are firmly in the contender tier, but they haven’t exactly steamrolled anyone. The offense has been up and down, while the defense is only now starting to click. Jalen Hurts remains dangerous in any game script, and Saquon has the ability to dictate tempo on his own. With Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter returning from injuries, the roster gets a timely boost that could help stabilize things down the stretch.
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- Super Bowl Odds: 13% (Last week 13%)
- Draftable Players: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
The Rest
T4. San Francisco 49ers
I made about 15 San Francisco primary Super Bowl teams last week chasing them at their peak. I’m okay with it process wise, I wanted to get in before the prices skyrocketed. Now, those teams are still live just not nearly as strong as they could be.
- Super Bowl Odds: 9% (Last week 15%)
- Draftable Players: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffery, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle
T4. Chicago Bears
Look at that, Caleb Williams and the Bears are flipping the script and forcing their way into the playoff conversation. Williams has energized the offense, and the defense is locking in just when it matters most. Chicago was dismissed early in the year, but with Williams growing more comfortable and the ground game finally showing up, they’ve turned into one of the league’s true surprise stories. I love them as a secondary NFC Super Bowl team, or using their pass catchers as one-offs.
- Super Bowl Odds: 14% (Last week 14%)
- Draftable Players: Caleb Williams, D’andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Luther Burden, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland
6. Green Bay Packers
It’s tough to envision the Packers making a full Super Bowl run, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they end up playing two games. Some rooms are completely disrespecting them, and I’m more than happy to scoop them up, especially for bye-week coverage.
- Super Bowl Odds: 9% (Last week 9%)
- Draftable Players: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed
7. Carolina Panthers
I will use Tetairoa McMillan for bye coverage.
- Super Bowl Odds: 7%
- Draftable Players: Tetairoa McMillan
