Every week I update our Playoff Best Ball rankings here based upon the latest information, like game results, injuries, playoff odds changes and more. But there are a variety of element, or even just “takes”, that you can’t fully translate into rankings, or at least not as much as you might hope.
Plus, in Playoff Best Ball especially, each little pocket of time is so unique. Who we want to draft this week, which teams we want to pair together and the ADPs we can get on certain players is going to be wildly different from a different week. I also think our takes *should* change week to week as we gather more information, especially this year. Getting out ahead of new playoff possibilities is exactly how we can build super teams in this format that teams drafter later cannot get.
So I started this update article each week with some general thoughts about not just basic musings but specific tactics I’m deploying in drafts given the latest info we have gathered from that week of NFL games.
We got a little more clarity on the playoff teams in Week 16 with Ravens and Lions losses, but we also have arguably the most wide open playoffs in recent memory, and Week 16 continued to prove that.
2026 Playoffs = Utter Chaos
After the Chiefs getting knocked out in Week 15, the Ravens and Lions essentially were eliminated in Week 16. The Colts were already pretty much eliminated the last couple weeks, and all that really remains to settle the playoff field is the NFC South, where the Panthers leapt ahead of the Bucs after defeating them in Week 16.
What isn’t settled, however, is most of the seeding. The Broncos opened the door to losing the 1 seed in the AFC with a home loss to the Jags, giving both the Patriots and Jags outside shots. The NFC is a 4 horse race between the 3 NFC West teams and the Bears for the 1 seed.
It’s nice to have the bracket basically solidified so that we aren’t drafting “dead” teams with players who end up missing the playoffs, but there’s still a lot left to be decided in terms of matchups and seeding.
For a look at We built our own custom playoff model, and while it’s similar to most other playoff odds models out there, we instituted some tweaks to account for injuries and current form which, when paired with future schedule, give our odds a little different outlook than some others places, which can be particularly advantageous for these playoff best ball contests.
You can also see odds of certain matchups in future rounds, so you can get an idea who how likely certain teams are to be playing each other at certain points in the playoff bracket.
Here’s what I said last week in this section, and I want to briefly build upon that this week.
“What I really want to touch on here heading into Week 16 is a bit more of a psychological thing. This is the first year in a long time where there’s a real shakeup in our playoff expectations, and I think that’s really exploitable.”
We have gotten so used to the same teams at the top (even the Lions over the last couple of years, alongside the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills) that despite this chaotic season, the draft market was still holding onto its priors thinking those teams would eventually sort themselves out and get into the playoffs.
But now the Chiefs, Lions and Ravens have been eliminated, and we are in a new era of the NFL Playoffs that we really should embrace. I was too slow on this myself. I don’t want to spread myself too thin trying to cover every single possible outcome in these playoffs because the pod variance and such will bury me, but I also want to embrace the chaos of this particular postseason when my opponents are very slow to do so.
The Broncos, Bears, and Jags are examples of teams who are some of the most likely teams to make the Super Bowl, but drafts are really not bought in. You can stack the Broncos and Bears in any draft you’d like, and the Jags only very recently have moved up a bit (and still not enough). What’s even more helpful is that most of these AFC teams have cheap options that are available very late and not a huge drop-off from their top options. Meanwhile, the Bills and top teams from the NFC are very top heavy in their fantasy production.
*QUICK STRATEGY NOTE*
Beyond the over/under valued teams, something that has been particularly notable for me this week is how phenomenal of a week it is to draft on DraftKings. The Lions are STILL being drafted in most drafts, often early. You’ll still see Ravens drafted very occasionally, and the prices on some of these teams have simply not adjusted quickly enough. Given the fact that DK is a 1/6 advancement structure with a tight end position and deeper drafts, the higher likelihood of dead teams (especially if you target some potential bye week/1 seed players) is huge.
Overvalued Teams & Current Fades
San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers offense is very good, and their top options will certainly score fantasy points. But this is Playoff Best Ball, and NFL teams with fatal flaws are really vulnerable in the playoffs. The Niners have a fatal flaw in their defense, and they continue to suffer injuries on offense that are tough to overcome in the playoffs, despite winning regular season games and scoring points.
Buffalo Bills – Clearly the Bills have the best/most trustworthy QB in the AFC playoff race. And certainly that’s a big deal. But outside of that, they do NOT have anywhere near the best roster or coaching. You have to draft Josh Allen or James Cook super duper early, and you almost never get them together on the same team. This is pretty crazy for a team likely to be on the road throughout the playoffs with just the 4th best odds of making the Super Bowl in their conference. Combine that with the fact the rest of the roster outside of Josh Allen and James Cook score very few fantasy points, and the Bills are a tough one to stomach.
Undervalued Teams & Current Targets
Denver Broncos – Yes, I know they lost to the Jaguars at home, but that has only made them cheaper without dinging their future odds much. I don’t want to keep saying the same thing with the Broncos, but it’s simply true. They are the most likely AFC team to make a run because they are the most likely team to need to win one fewer game than everyone else, while likely having home field advantage.
Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles are certainly not “cheap”, but they are also extremely gettable in drafts, and you can find ways to pair them with any AFC team. Meanwhile, they are about to get two of their most important players back from injury – Jalen Carter and Lane Johnson. It’s such a deja vu situation, where the way they played during the regular season last year gave us some cause for concern, but their overall talent level is just so high it overwhelms come playoff time.
Los Angeles Chargers – The Jags have risen in price, and while I still think they’re undervalued and a great target, I think it would be foolish not to mention the Chargers. I have been a doubter thanks to a so-so defense and their injuries to their offensive tackles, and of course I still have doubts. But in this wide open AFC, they are getting their skill group healthier and Justin Herbert is playing at an incredibly high level.
Note: If you see our Playoff Best Ball Rankings, you will notice in the NFC that the Eagles and Rams are the pretty clear top priorities. That’s the main way I am building for the moment. Prioritizing the big two in the NFC, while being more wide open amongst all the AFC options.
*If another team is not listed in either category, you can consider them “neutral” for purposes of drafting. They are not fades, but also not the highest priority target at this moment. That can change each week!
