Every week I update our Playoff Best Ball rankings here based upon the latest information, like game results, injuries, playoff odds changes and more. But there are a variety of element, or even just “takes”, that you can’t fully translate into rankings, or at least not as much as you might hope.
Plus, in Playoff Best Ball especially, each little pocket of time is so unique. Who we want to draft this week, which teams we want to pair together and the ADPs we can get on certain players is going to be wildly different from a different week. I also think our takes *should* change week to week as we gather more information, especially this year. Getting out ahead of new playoff possibilities is exactly how we can build super teams in this format that teams drafter later cannot get.
So I want to start this update article each week with some general thoughts about not just basic musings but specific tactics I’m deploying in drafts given the latest info we have gathered from that week of NFL games.
We had some semi-shocking results with the Colts, Ravens, Chiefs and Eagles all going down in Week 14, plus a major injury, so let’s get to what that means.
2026 Playoffs = Utter Chaos
Here’s what I said last week in this spot, and it’s actually startling how true it remains.
“Maybe (probably?) I am just a fool, but I had been sort of expecting the cream to rise to the top as the season went on, meaning the traditional playoff teams we have gotten used to for a while now. The Chiefs run to snag a wild card spot felt inevitable. The Ravens figuring it out after getting healthy felt the same. The Lions injuries would theoretically clear up, especially on defense. But the opposite has happened.”
We built our own custom playoff model, and while it’s similar to most other playoff odds models out there, we instituted some tweaks to account for injuries and current form which, when paired with future schedule, give our odds a little different outlook than some others places, which can be particularly advantageous for these playoff best ball contests.
What a brutal week for the Colts, and we now have them as large dogs to make the playoffs. Their schedule is tough the rest of the way, and of course they lost Daniel Jones to an achilles injury. But it wasn’t any better for the Chiefs, who are effectively eliminated from the playoffs. They would need to run the table (Chargers and Broncos matchups make that very tough) and get some serious good luck, and they’re dealing with their own serious offensive line injuries.
The Ravens also lost to the Steelers, putting their playoff hopes nearly out of reach. The Bucs lost ground to the Panthers, though they’re still favored there, and the Lions are still on the outside looking in. They’re in trouble mathematically, of course, but the injuries in the secondary are impossible to ignore, especially after losing Brian Branch for the season to an achilles injury as well.
This has opened the door for some serious values on some other teams (which we’ll get to below), but first let’s wrap up the overvalued teams.
Overvalued Teams & Current Fades
Kansas City Chiefs – Not much left to say here, but at least as of this morning you will still see people drafting the Chiefs. They have just an 8% chance to make the playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens – Like the Chiefs, we all sort of expected them to start winning some of these games against decent to good teams, and it has just never happened. Their name brand keeps them drafted more than they should be at this point. I had been excited to get them cheaper before a run, but I’ve thrown in the towel.
Indianapolis Colts – Dogs to make the playoffs AND they lost their QB for the season. Even if they sneak in, there’s no upside for a run anymore.
Detroit Lions – That was a huge win over Dallas, but I actually think they might be even more overrated in drafts than last week. Some of the other big name teams have tumbled, and the Lions got a win, so they are not getting the same shade from drafters despite being dogs to make the playoffs and having a disaster injury scenario on defense.
Undervalued Teams & Current Targets
Denver Broncos – Drafters hate this team so much it’s hilarious. They are are the favorite for the bye in the AFC, giving them significant homefield advantage in an AFC without the Chiefs and Ravens and a flawed Bills team. And yet, you can at a minimum use them as a secondary stack on every team you draft if you so choose.
Houston Texans – This was our biggest “flag plant’ in this article last week, and that went about as well as possible. They knocked off the Chiefs and became a near lock for the playoffs. This is a team that can make a serious run in this watered down AFC thanks to the best defense in football, but we also don’t want to go too crazy with too many Texans on any individual team because they don’t score very many fantasy points.
Green Bay Packers – We rolled with the Packers over the Bears in this spot last week, and like the Texans, they came through for us. They’re now a lock to get in, and they’re also available for you in every single draft. We have to be careful because they have so many bodies on offense that they aren’t going to have many huge fantasy difference makers, but this team can beat anyone, especially as they get healthier.
Note: If you see our Playoff Best Ball Rankings, you will notice the Rams are still clearly a (the?) top priority for us. They are by far our top team to draft in the NFC, but I wouldn’t classify them as “undervalued” necessarily even though that might technically be true.
*If another team is not listed in either category, you can consider them “neutral” for purposes of drafting. They are not fades, but also not the highest priority target at this moment. That can change each week!
