This week Underdog went back to its roots creating the Thunday Night Knockout, which is a mix of Thursday and Sunday Night Football. The contest has a $5 price point (down from $10 last week), 13,752 (up from 5,652) entries and $12k top prize. It is the same format as the Main Slate contest but with only 4 drafters instead of 6. For this week, we get the Commanders (-1) traveling to Chicago to take on the Bears with a 38-point o/u on Thursday and the Cowboys traveling to Philadelphia to face the Eagles (-6) with a 42.5 o/u on Sunday Night.
Let’s dig in.
Draft Strategy for Week 6 Thursday & Sunday Night Football Draft Strategy
The main takeaway from looking at this slate is to win you will need to find the touchdowns scored from the rushing attacks. All of these teams feature multiple players in the backfields (including their QBs) and majority (3 of 4) have negative PROE (run more frequently). The Bears rank dead last in PROE in the NFL, the Cowboys rank 6th to last, the Eagles are 18th in the league, and the Commanders are 8th in the league.
Unfortunately for us, there is not a clear 1.01 in drafts.However you could argue it should be the dual-threat QB with the highest floor and ceiling, in Jalen Hurts. He is far and away the best bet at QB with a group that includes Carson Wentz, Justin Fields, and Cooper Rush. None of them carry the same type of upside Hurts does as both a passer and rusher, however there are paths for any of them to outscore Hurts as they aren’t rush-averse. Hurts is in a different playing field as the Eagles design rushes for Hurts and he is the primary ball-carrier in the red and green zones. I would be prioritizing Hurts when the opportunity arises, but otherwise waiting on QB to see who falls.
After Hurts, the next 9 guys go in varying order: CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, and Terry McLaurin. You have the #1 WRs for three teams (Lamb, Brown and McLaurin), two starting running backs (Montgomery and Sanders), the far and away best TE on the slate (Goedert) and the rushing tandem of Zeke and Pollard. Drafters prioritize pieces of the Eagles offense since it is condensed and the best team on the slate (only undefeated team in the NFL). We have seen consistency from Goedert and one of the Eagles WRs booming each week. Brown should see Trevon Diggs in coverage (who can be susceptible to long-plays). David Montgomery returned from injury last week and immediately took over the backfield from Khalil Herbert. Montgomery handled 72% of the snaps and 80% of the opportunities. Sanders, like Montgomery, handles the majority of the workload getting 85.7% of the opportunities (not including Hurts’ runs). The Cowboys backs are in a more even timeshare with Zeke headlining the 60-40 snap share split but handling 73% of the opportunities last week. Pollard has shown burst and explosiveness but needs to find paydirt to crack the winning lineup.
The last half of the draft is where you can get unique and really win the contest. As stated before, the Bears are the worst team in terms of PROE. This has made early-round pick, Darnell Mooney, a major bust for drafters. However, Fields and Mooney are starting to connect on some deep shots down the field. Mooney ran a 4.31 coming out of college and has the burners to break a long one. He should be a low-floor high ceiling upside play to fault you up the leaderboards. Drafters will look toward Equanimeous St. Brown or Dante Pettis in the last round due to them playing 60% of snaps, but look to rookie Velus Jones, who was healthy for the first time last week (caught a TD) or recently activated N’Keal Harry as differentiation options. Another interesting name late in drafts is Quez Watkins. He is the deep threat playing ~60% of the time. For the Cowboys, both Noah Brown and Michael Gallup last until late in drafts. Gallup is drafted ahead of Brown despite only playing 55% of snaps (working back from injury) and Brown being an 80% snap share player. Jahan Dotson missed last week’s game and is not expected to play but is going mostly undrafted. If he is active, he should assume a near every down role. Other Commanders of note include all three RBs, Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, and J.D. McKissic. Robinson was activated for the first time last week and immediately played 30% of snaps. I would expect his snap share to increase at the discretion of Antonio Gibson but McKissic will remain the primary pass-catching back. With the low over/under, I would prioritize Robinson/Gibson over McKissic as the game should be slower paced.
The TE landscape is a mess. Both Dalton Schultz and Logan Thomas are questionable leaning more towards doubtful, leaving Goedert as the far and away best play. If you can’t get him, pivot to Cole Kmet, who is playing most snaps and is a target for Fields underneath. You will need him to regain his form from last year to have the chance at overtaking Goedert teams. I wouldn’t prioritize him, but he’s a target in the 5th before others draft their TEs. After that, I am playing the swap-options with Schultz and Thomas. You can draft them now and still get the swap later. If they play, great, if they don’t, no harm as you will get their backup.
Top Plays for Drafts
- Jalen Hurts – Highest floor and ceiling on the slate.
- A.J. Brown – #1 WR for Hurts who has a matchup with Trevon Diggs.
- Dallas Goedert – Reliable safety blanket for Hurts.
- David Montgomery – Returned from injury to overtake the backfield. Should be used early and often on Thursday.
Players That Could Differentiate Your Lineup
- Jahan Dotson – Not expected to play, but if he does he will be on the field nearly every snap.
- Velus Jones – 3rd round pick by the Bears this year, scored a TD in his first NFL game. Expect his role to expand.
- N’Keal Harry – I know, I know. He was not good on the Patriots, but he should be able to beat out Equanimeous St. Brown for snaps and has contested catch ability.
- Quez Watkins – Deep threat playing 60% of snaps. Leverage off Brown, Smith and Goedert.
- Jake Ferguson – Schultz is not expected to play. Ferguson will step into the lead TE role, not Peyton Hendershot.
