OOOH Baby!! After some overlay issues from Underdog, they brought back the single-game
slate. Volume is key in these contests as drafts tend to get weird and unique combos do arise.
This Thursday we get the Miami Dolphins traveling to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals (-4)
with a 47-point o/u. As with all Underdog slates, touchdowns are important. The Thursday Night
Knockout tournament has a $5 entry point with a $10,000 Top Prize (11,304 entries).
Let’s dig in.
Draft Strategy for Week 4 Thursday Night Football – Dolphins @ Bengals
There has been a bit of movement to the line with Dolphin’s quarterback Tua Tagovailoa
suffering a concussion last weekend. He returned to play in that game and the indications are that
he should play on Thursday. Due to the uncertainty, drafters are playing it safe and usually take
Ja’Marr Chase with the first pick. After him, the next tier is quite wide with Tyreek Hill, Joe
Mixon, Jaylen Waddle, and Tee Higgins.
This week’s game is a showdown of high-powered offenses so getting a mix of 2 (and sometimes 3) of these guys may be the key to the slate. After them, drafters look to projectable volume with Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert (the 1a and 1b of the Dolphins’ backfield), Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, and Mike Gesicki. Tyler Boyd plays around 75% of snaps per week as the Bengals primarily play 11 personnel with Hayden
Hurst the primary TE. On the Dolphins’ side, they have played mostly 21 and 11 packages with
their 3 rd WR being rotated and having a fullback play (Alec Ingold). Gesicki is still thought to be
the main TE for the Dolphins; however, he plays primarily a “big slot” role is has played on less
than 50% of snaps due to his ineffectiveness in blocking.
The real TE1 for the Dolphins is Durham Smythe, who is primarily used to block. Due to the
fact he is on the field (especially in the red zone), it would be wise to mix him in at the end of
drafts. As stated before, Gesicki is playing a big slot role, but the WR3 role has been somewhat
of a carousel for the Dolphins. Trent Sherfield, Cedrick Wilson, and River Cracraft are
seeing time on the field and rotating through and should (like Smythe) be priority targets. I
expect Sherfield to be under-owned by the field albeit being a 60% player last week.
The Bengals are more condensed in terms of playing time. Their team is primarily full of “studs”
in the fantasy community and it is shown with playing time. It is important to note that Hayden
Hurst has been battling a groin injury and only played on 38% of snaps last week. This opened
the door for Mitchell Wilcox (57%) and Devin Asiasi (35%) to play and be low-owned pieces
in this contest. Hayden Hurst did return to be a full participant at practice this week. Drew
Sample has not yet returned to practice and is likely to be OUT.
As stated in the previous articles, it is most important, since only 12 players are selected in total
(4 per team), you want your roster to tell a story. Think about how each individual player hits
their ceiling outcome and what that means for players on their team vs. the other team. In this
particular game with the low over/under, I would get different by including the secondary pass
catchers for the Dolphins. If they score instead of the big names, it has the ability to vault you up
the leaderboard.
Top Plays for Drafts
- Ja’Marr Chase – playing the most of the Bengals’ WRs, highest ceiling of any WR in the
league - Tyreek Hill – Speed and route-running combo allow him to explode anytime he touches
the field - Jaylen Waddle – YAC specialist and primary target earner for the Dolphins.
- Tee Higgins – Alpha WR who gets overshadowed at times by Chase. Has similar ceiling
outcome - Joe Mixon – Seeing extreme usage in both running and passing games, yet to score a TD
after scoring 16 last year.
Players That Could Differentiate Your Lineup
- Trent Sherfield – 60% of snaps last week. A down-field threat for the Cardinals and 49ers
in the past. - Alec Ingold – Plays the Juszczyk role in McDaniel’s scheme.
- Durham Smythe – Primary TE for the Dolphins, albeit blocking. One goal-line
touchdown makes him relevant. - Mitchell Wilcox – Primary beneficiary of Hayden Hurst’s injury, if it flares up, he will be
thrust into action.
