Earlier this week, we took a look at the AFC East and how we could potentially exploit the ADPs. Things
have shifted a bit since then due to the inclusion of rookies into the player pool. For the most part, ADPs
have shifted down causing more buying opportunities with everyone in a rookie craze.
Over the next few weeks, I will outline each team in the NFL and provide what could change with the
off-season right around the corner (Free Agency & the Draft).
Onto the NFC East.
Dallas Cowboys
America’s team! I don’t think anyone could have gotten more of the Cowboys. I’m surprised they were
even stackable due to how many people wanted a piece of their offense. They produced a league-
leading 31.2 points/game albeit in a very inconsistent manner. Overall, there were 7 Cowboys drafted in
BBM II drafts – Ezekiel Elliot (5.6, RB5), CeeDee Lamb (25, WR9), Amari Cooper (31.9, WR13), Dak
Prescott (68.3, QB5), Michael Gallup (76.2, WR37), Tony Pollard (121.2, RB39), and Blake Jarwin (193.1,
TE25) with Dalton Schultz drafted occasionally (~13%).
Due to their inconsistencies on offense, owning the Cowboys wasn’t great. Outside of Dalton Schultz
(TE7), the Cowboys did not meet expectations and rarely met ADP. Ezekiel Elliott was the RB54, CeeDee
Lamb was the WR45, Amari Cooper was the WR54, Michael Gallup (albeit hurt in the first game) was the
WR80, Dak Prescott was the QB25, Tony Pollard was the RB36, and Blake Jarwin was the TE32.
When considering the fact that 5 Cowboys were going in the first 7 rounds and their advance rates, the
Cowboys were a gigantic disappointment. Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz are the only Cowboys who
exceeded their positional ADP. This isn’t entirely shocking when thinking back. The Cowboys had people
excited over a VERY small sample size from 2020 when Dak was healthy. In those 4 games, the team was
unstoppable on offense. They had a high pass rate over expected (PROE) and were in some absolute
shoot-outs. The problem was we saw inconsistencies from the offense (especially in the second half of
the year) and an opportunistic defense. The Cowboys’ defense and special teams had 9 touchdowns
(with 6 in the second half of the season), severely capping the upside of the offense.
The truly baffling part of the Cowboys player’s underwhelming year was they still had a positive PROE
which should have led to better outcomes. I come back and chuck this up to variance due to the
defensive scores and having to take their foot off the gas in games.
One aspect of the market’s mistakes was labeling Blake Jarwin the starter. Dalton Schultz was a very
good player in 2020 and one of the few bright spots in a down year. Why did we just think that Jarwin
would step in as the starter after tearing his ACL? It would have been one thing if both were being
drafted, but Schultz was only drafted 13% (!!!) of the time, while Jarwin went in 97% of drafts. We as a
community need to put more thought into open-ended situations and not be afraid to go against
groupthink (the people who did were highly profitable)
Looking forward to this year, there are a few potential big holes that will need to be filled for the
Cowboys. Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, Dalton Schultz, and Connor Williams are free agents, and they
are a projected 21.7M over the cap already. It is fair to assume they most likely will not be resigning any
of them, as I expect they all will try to get paid. Connor Williams is one of the best guards in the league,
Gallup will want to be more than the 3 rd option on a team. Wilson played well down the stretch so
someone will offer him more $ and Schultz will try to capitalize on being a serviceable TE. They don’t
have the flexibility to be major players in free agency, even though they are a team in win-now mode. It
just goes to show that you shouldn’t hand out big contracts to RBs. They may target a playmaker (most
likely WR) towards the end of the draft.
Third times the charm? Third times the charm. I am ready to get hurt again. At current ADPs, I am not
going to be reaching for any Cowboys, but I will be taking them at discounts. As gross as it is to say, Zeke
could be a league winner if they ride him like they did this year. Volume is key (and how RBs produce).
People hate taking him due to his inefficiency, but he still ended as an RB1 due to his goal-line role and
TD-upside. The biggest sleeper could be Blake Jarwin who is basically going undrafted. With the
expectation that Schultz is not coming back, Jarwin should slide into a pretty sizable role on one of the
best offenses in the league.
New York Giants
The New York Football Giants. There was some general excitement for the team. Could Daniel Jones
finally make the next leap and limit the turnovers? If Saquon could stay healthy, his depressed price tag
was mouth-watering. The Giants found a way to get the #1 WR on the market in Kenny Golladay and
drafted a receiver in the first round (Kadarius Toney). When you add them to players like Sterling
Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram, there was a real chance they had one of the better offenses
in the league. Due to the excitement, 7 Giants were regularly drafted – Saquon Barkley (11.6, RB7,
Kenny Golladay (66.8, WR31), Evan Engram (148.3, TE16), Sterling Shepard (152.8, WR69), Daniel Jones
(189, QB25), Darius Slayton (200.3, WR88) and Kadarius Toney (212.4, WR98). Occasionally, Kyle
Rudolph (0.5%) and Devontae Booker (~29%) were drafted.
Based on ADP, the Giants were vastly disappointing. This isn’t surprising considering they went 4-13 and
scored the second least points (15.2 pts/gm) in the league. They dealt with plenty of injuries as the
offense couldn’t stay healthy. Every member that was regularly drafted missed at least one game and
everyone, but Darius Slayton, missed multiple. With Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm starting at
quarterback, you can tell the year did not go as expected. Based on advance rates, Saquon Barkley was
the RB63, Kenny Golladay was the WR89, Sterling Shepard was the WR38, Kadarius Toney was the
WR33, Darius Slayton was the WR43, Evan Engram was the TE20, and Daniel Jones was the QB15.
When looking at advance rates, it is not as bad. Shepard, Toney, Slayton, and Jones all exceeded ADP
due to their investment costs. All of them were ancillary pieces to a roster and their spike weeks were a
welcomed addition. Their injuries hurt as it capped your upside yet didn’t sink your team. The most
surprising name on that list is Darius Slayton, who didn’t top 65 yards in a single game, only had 2 TDs
on the year (1 in the Best Ball season), and didn’t have a game over 13 fantasy points (0.5 ppr, UD
standard). It goes to show that late rounds picks won’t hurt you but can be league/tournament winners.
Early picks do matter, and they matter a lot. Both Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay were picked in
the first 6 rounds which are an integral part of any team’s core. Due to the injuries and overall
disappointing results when healthy, they killed teams. The fact that they were disappointing is not that
surprising. We have seen in the past that typically when WRs switch teams, they don’t produce as well
as projections say they will. DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs clouded our judgment the last two years
and the sentiment shifted in the wrong direction. Saquon, on the other hand, was all projection and
primarily relied on him staying healthy for the year. We should have shifted our sails when he wasn’t
healthy going into the year. There were comments that he would split carries to start the year and he
has proven to not be very efficient. The excitement with Saquon is his big-play ability and passing game
role and when he doesn’t own the backfield, it makes it very hard for him to pay off his price tag.
Looking forward to this year, the Giants will be a fan favorite. They have already seen some steam in
drafts boards due to their hiring of Brian Daboll as head coach. When looking at their cap situation, my
excitement starts to dwindle. They are already 10M over the cap with Evan Engram, Billy Price, and Nate
Solder as free agents. Losing Solder is an addition by subtraction and Evan Engram never really panned
out. But they are losing more bodies on a poor line (ranked 28 th to end the year) and don’t have the cap
space to significantly improve it. They will almost assuredly use the draft to bolster it, but it seems like
the O-line will again be its weak point. The saying goes you’re only as strong as your weakest link seems
to be a heavy indicator.
Looking toward drafts, in my opinion, all of the Giants are underrated. The one I struggle with the most
is Saquon as RB12. But at the tail end of round 2, he has the potential to outproduce his draft spot if
Daboll takes the offense to the next level. When they inevitably improve the O-line, he will creep up
towards the back end of round 1 like he did last year. No one else is drafted before the 8 th round and we
should be trying to load up on Golladay, Shepard, and Toney while we can be due to Daboll (hopefully)
making this a pass-centric offense. Daniel Jones is an intriguing 2 nd or 3 rd QB option as we hope the new
offense unlocks him. Evan Engram is most likely gone but he will sign somewhere that will hopefully use
him correctly (although he could just be bad).
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are a hard team to recap. They “over-achieved” but didn’t when you look at it. They beat the
teams they should and lost to the teams they were expected to. The offense stayed consistent
throughout the year, and they have the capital to continue improving. In BBM II, 7 Eagles were drafted –
Miles Sanders (50.3, RB20), DeVonta Smith (75.8, WR36), Jalen Hurts (108.4, QB11), Dallas Goedert
(109.9, TE9), Jalen Reagor (140.7, WR66), Zach Ertz (192.8, TE24), and Kenny Gainwell (204.5, RB61).
Quez Watkins (~32%), Boston Scott (~16%), and Greg Ward (~0.7%) were occasionally drafted.
There was a mixed bag of results for the Eagles as some exceeded their ADP and some vastly
underperformed. That goes along with their season as they went 9-8 and got steamrolled in the playoffs.
Going off advance rates, Jalen Hurts was the QB11, Kenneth Gainwell was the RB21, Miles Sanders was
the RB70, Boston Scott was the RB31, DeVonta Smith was the WR26, Jalen Reagor was the WR74, Quez
Watkins was the WR37, Dallas Goedert was the TE13, and Zach Ertz was the TE4.
Hurts was pegged as someone who could win you a fantasy championship and he certainly didn’t hurt.
He performed at ADP and although he cooled off in the second half, the industry was right about his
rushing upside. He had 10 rushing touchdowns (!!), which coincided with how unfortunate of a pick
Miles Sanders was. Despite missing a few games, Sanders was efficient with his touches. He just didn’t
fall in the endzone at all. Severely capping upside since you spent a 4 th /5 th round pick on him. One of the
craziest parts of the season was the fact Jordan Howard was relevant and used as a starter when
Sanders got hurt (and then was a part of a committee). We would have expected Boston Scott to step
into that role or even Kenneth Gainwell (who was involved in the passing game early on). Both provided
some spike weeks (at low investment) bumping up their advance rates.
DeVonta Smith was as good as advertised. He quickly became one of the Hurts’ favorite targets and
showed he could play in the NFL (there were concerns over his body size and weight). Goedert was a
force over the middle of the field and started to excel after the Eagles traded away Zach Ertz (who I will
bring up in the Cardinal’s write-up). The Eagles appear to have a formidable core in their passing game.
It is just unfortunate they spent back-to-back 1 st round picks on WRs since Jalen Reagor is not good and
appears to be a major bust. Quez is a decent 4 th or 5 th option in an offense and has shown a good
connection with Hurts on deeper passes.
Looking forward to this year, the Eagles are in an enviable spot. They have 3 first-round picks (one from
trading Carson Wentz and one from trading back last year with the Dolphins), 10 picks in the draft
overall, and $21.5M in cap space. Their current free agents are Jason Kelce (Center), Boston Scott, and
Greg Ward, so there is not a lot of prospective turnover. They have some holes on the defensive side of
the ball, so I expect a lot of their capital to be spent there (especially since they have a top 3 line). But
they still could be players to grab an intriguing and highly touted WR prospect in the draft or someone in
free agency. Someone in the second tier like Allen Robinson or JuJu makes sense to me.
The Eagles are undervalued at current costs. DeVonta Smith should have some more help around him
and could easily surpass a WR25 cost. Goedert looks prime to leap into top 6 TE territory. Sanders being
valued as RB3 is ridiculous. He is due for positive TD regression. We hope Jalen Hurts takes a step
forward in his 2 nd full year starting, but his rushing floor is good enough to keep him as a QB1. Gainwell
should be more involved next year and is a good zero-RB candidate while Quez is a nice last pick flier. I
will be drafting plenty of Eagles this year.
Washington Football Team/ Washington Commanders
The new name is official, but I am not sure I can get myself to use it. I am just going to call them
Washington.
Washington is one of the hardest teams to review as their entire season changed after 17 offensive
plays when Ryan Fitzpatrick got hurt and was lost for the season. They were an exciting team, but the
downgrade to Heinicke made them inconsistent and disappointing. Overall, 7 Washington players were
selected – Antonio Gibson (15.5, RB10), Terry McLaurin (27.6, WR11), Curtis Samuel (96.8, WR49), Logan
Thomas (94.2, TE7), J.D. McKissic (163.5, RB49), Dyami Brown (178.4, WR81), and Ryan Fitzpatrick
(161.3, QB21). Occasionally, Adam Humpries (~17%) and Jaret Patterson (~3%) were drafted.
There aren’t many positives to say about Washington. Their season was over in the first quarter of their
first game. Going off advance rates, Ryan Fitzpatrick was the QB35, Antonio Gibson was the RB41, J.D.
McKissic was the RB11, Terry McLaurin was the WR71, Curtis Samuel was the WR92, Dyami Brown was
the WR78, Adam Humphries was the WR76, and Logan Thomas was the TE36.
Everyone outside of J.D McKissic missed their ADP by an extreme measure. Logan Thomas had two
injuries, first a hammy and then a torn ACL, so he at least gets a pass. We shouldn’t have been so high
on Curtis Samuel who could never get on the field after getting hurt in the pre-season and was on a new
team (albeit joining Riverboat Ron). As stated earlier, Fitzpatrick got hurt in the first game after 17 plays,
which changed the dynamic of the offense. Terry McLaurin was widely inconsistent. With drafting him in
the early third, you would have hoped he wasn’t as boom-bust. The good news was his role didn’t
change from 2020. The offense just wasn’t as explosive as expected. One of the more shocking aspects
was Antonio Gibson played 16 games. He was on the injury report every week and showed he has
toughness but did not get the receiving work (at least early on) that people hoped for. The receiving
work went to J.D. McKissic until he got hurt and as a later-round pick paid off. Sadly, Dyami Brown was a
part-time player and didn’t pay off, even with Curtis Samuel not healthy for a majority of the year.
Looking forward to this year, Washington has $32M in cap space and their full allotment of draft picks
(their 5 th rounder is the Eagles’ 5 th rounder). Their free agents include Brandon Scherff, Ryan Fitzpatrick,
Cam Sims, J.D. McKissic, Adam Humphries, Ricky Seals-Jones, Kyle Allen, and Deandre Carter. With their
line being one of the best in the league, I would not be surprised for them to offer a market-level deal to
Scherff, as he’s one of the best guards in the league. Their biggest need is at quarterback though and I
expect them to be aggressive in the trade market. They could also sign a bridge QB like Tyrod, Mariota,
or Dalton and draft their expected franchise cornerstone. They need to come out of this offseason with
an executable plan at QB as they’re in the perfect spot to contend (if they can find an answer).
Looking ahead to drafting, I will be treading lightly to start the off-season in terms of Antonio Gibson
and Terry McLaurin. Their ADPs are closer to their ceilings than their median outcomes and as such I will
be underweight. There is too much at stake in terms of their quarterback position to feel comfortable
grabbing either of them. Gibson has a bit more projectable volume if they do not sign back McKissic
(pass work). If they stick with Heinicke going into the year, the offense is not going to be good. I will be
taking shots on the cheap options (Thomas, Samuel, and Brown) in hopes that they find the next guy
and the offense takes a step forward.
Disagree with me? Join the Spike Week Discord and let’s talk! Or feel free to tag me on Twitter @SilasJackson15.
