My brain is assuredly broken from years and years of thinking about fantasy football and best ball nonstop, which means I will stumble upon random thoughts or questions that really take over my mind for a while. But I also find various thought experiments to actually be a very powerful way of learning. When we are just grinding out drafts or reading who our favorite analyst’s top draft targets are, we can pretty easily fall into a routine of doing the same thing over and over.
There has been a lot of talk lately in actual football circles about Trevor Lawrence’s extension, and that spirals into the upcoming likely extensions for Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love and others down the road. It also leads to conversations about QB value, and how much these players are worth. I have some (maybe hot) takes about how NFL teams should construct their rosters around the QB position, but that’s probably best left for another day.
After all the talk I was reading about QBs, naturally my brain cannot help but to turn it into something related to Best Ball. Just like in real football, we know in Best Ball that the elite QBs are the most valuable. Highest ceilings, highest floors, best actual real life QBs, etc. But they are drafted the highest at the position, so clearly everyone gets that.
We have a similar middle tier of fantasy QBs to real life – very good fantasy options, but not to the level of the superstars who are a bit pricier. And of course we have the cheap options. The bridge QBs or the game managers if you will. The guys we know are not difference makers, but they can keep us afloat with a loaded roster around them. Or they keep us afloat until our unproven but higher upside option can take the reigns.
The difference for us is that we get to draft a bunch of Best Ball teams. NFL teams have to commit to just one QB (or maybe a bridge QB and a rookie, but you get the point).
Because we don’t have to commit to just one QB to decide the fate of our entire season, it’s obviously easier for us. We get to use things like stacking, correlation, ADP value, diversification and other levers to determine which QB we take in a given draft and get our shares of all the different QBs across our portfolio.
But what if we had to operate just like an NFL team? What if we had to pick just one QB to draft on every single Best Ball team this summer? Which QB would we choose?
As my broken brain started down this path, I found it to be more eye opening and insightful that I thought at first glance. And I think it’s actually a very useful thought exercise, one in which I feel like I learned quite a bit about my draft habits and some things I’d like to change about my drafting the rest of the summer.
If You Had to Draft the Same QB on Every Best Ball Team, Who Would it Be?
First, let’s just clarify the ‘rules’ of the thought experiment.
The idea is to hone in on that 1 QB that you would feel best about on every single best ball team you draft in 2024. This is not to say you are only drafting 1 total QB on your team, quite the opposite. When you go through this thought experiment, you can decide that for yourself. Want to just take Josh Allen on every team and never draft a 2nd QB? Go for it. That’s your prerogative.
We also clearly know that QBs can get hurt. And many will get hurt. But just for fun, let’s ignore that here. Going through the exercise is the point, not debating a solo QB strategy or the merits of diversifying our QBs because many will get injured.
I will walk through a bunch of the variables that I am considering for this exercise, but those are also up for debate. I’m ignoring the differences in site scoring across Underdog, DraftKings and Drafters. I’m ignoring the slightly more niche contests like the Eliminator, Weekly Winners or the DraftKings new survivor format. And I’m not thinking about this through a SuperFlex lense.
For simplicity, we are keeping it to the main, standard best ball formats across our main sites.
Variables to Consider
Now that we’ve established our ground rules, let’s talk about all the different elements that I was thinking about when I went down this path.
Price – just like in real football, we probably have to start with the price of the QB. We all love Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, but they go in the 3rd and 4th round of drafts for the most part.
Opportunity Cost – piggybacking on price, if the QB goes in round 4 of drafts, and we select him on every team, that means there is a subset of the player pool we will be far less exposed to across our teams than our opponents.
QB Profile – clearly we need to analyze the individual player as part of this exercise. Is he more of a pocket passer or a runner? How much rushing value does he bring? We know the inherent value of rushing production at the QB position, but Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Anthony Richardson are different levels of ‘rushing QB’ compared to a Trevor Lawrence. We also know that QBs are impacted by their team situation, whether that be the talent around them or their coaching/schematic situation. I am lumping that into the ‘profile’ section. If you are worried about injury risk, bench risk or similar elements, I’d include those in the QB’s profile.
Stacking Partners – I think we are all pretty on board with the premise of stacking a pass catcher, or multiple pass catchers, with our QB by now. It has major benefits both in a single week and over the course of the entire season. But the details of those stacking partners is wildly important to which QBs we select. We need to think about the profiles of the teammates of the QB, and how appealing they are in and of themselves. We also want to know how many potential stacking partners are available in the draft, and what positions those stacking partners play. Lastly, we definitely want to consider the cost of their stacking partners. If we really want to go full sicko mode, we can also consider the ‘game stacking partners’ here as well. If correlating week 17 is important to you, we want to know what players are available on the opposite side of the Week 17 game from this QB and all the same details we just outlined for the QB’s teammates.
Those are the big 4 pillars of this experiment to me. Certainly there are some other things some folks would consider, but for the sake of simplicity, let’s stop there.
Now that we understand the experiment, and we have outlined what we are looking for in each of these QBs, let’s walk through my thoughts on each of the QBs to start to filter down my list. I’m not going to specifically break down every variable of each QB, and some of them I will probably eliminate fairly quickly. It’s not that they aren’t great selections, but we have to be very picky if we are talking about the QB whom our entire season is dependent upon.
The QBs
Josh Allen – We all love Josh Allen as a fantasy QB. He had the highest Spike Score among QBs by a decent margin in 2023. But for me, the price and opportunity cost are too high. He’s not an avoid or anything, but I don’t want to have a 3rd round pick QB on every single team given what i have to give up to make that happen. I also think it’s important to note that Allen’s stacking partners leave a LOT to be desired in their own profiles given we are selecting Allen this early. If we were to make Allen our guy, we are naturally going to be way overweight on Kincaid, Coleman, Shakir, and Samuel, and maybe even some other profiles that make me pretty squeamish.
Jalen Hurts – Hurts is a similar bucket to Allen with the price issues. We know how good he is, but the opportunity cost is really high. And while his stacking partners look a lot more appealing in a vacuum than Allen, there are really only 2 receivers (maybe 3 if you include Goedert) that we like in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, and those two also go very early in drafts. That would create a serious trickle down effect opportunity cost wise. I also suspect the Eagles will bounce back in 2024, but they were, to put it politely, not good down the stretch of 2023 which at least adds some level of risk I don’t want to take on in every single team with all these other factors in play.
Lamar Jackson – I think if I had to select an elite QB for this answer, it might be Lamar. He doesn’t bring quite the same floor of Allen/Hurts, but he does bring the ceiling. After Lamar, there was a huge dropoff in QB Spike Score last year, and he actually had the highest amount of Nuclear Weeks at the QB position with 3. His stacking partners are also pretty affordable with Andrews and Flowers at the top, and several cheap options in Bateman, Likely and Tez Walker. He does, however, have the same price and opportunity cost issues. He also is the most electric runner in football at the QB position, but despite 148 rushes, he only had 5 “money zone” rushing attempts in 2023 compared to 16 for Hurts and 14 for Allen. Now the Ravens added Derrick Henry, who certainly doesn’t help in that regard.
Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes is the best real life NFL QB, but he isn’t the same fantasy profile of the most elite fantasy QBs. As great as he is, we saw in 2023 what can happen with even a GOAT level QB when he doesn’t hit his absolute ceiling passing wise if he’s not adding rushing production. The upgraded weapons do make Mahomes very appealing, however, with his strongest supporting cast since Tyreek Hill was traded, and the fact they are available at various different points in the draft.
Anthony Richardson – AR15 clearly has an intriguing fantasy profile. In the limited action we saw last year, he was a fantasy star. But I think it’s fair to say we have concerns about just how good he actually is at football, which is not a *huge* deal for fantasy, but it’s a factor when we are selecting a QB in the top 60 overall. He also has some of the weakest stacking partners of all QBs. Michael Pittman is quite expensive for his profile. AD Mitchell is an intriguing rookie but also brings a scary profile himself. I am a pretty big Josh Downs fan, and his price looks nice, but I’m not sure he has the makings of a true fantasy superstar. The Colts TE situation is a bit of a mess, and AR still have some serious opportunity cost.
CJ Stroud – As exciting as CJ Stroud is on the football field heading into his sophomore season, he might be the easiest one to x off this list. I suspect he’ll have another great season, but we know the limitations of the pocket passer in fantasy. He did not even reach 40 rushing attempts in 2023, so we are going to need him to continue his upward trajectory as a passer, and that still may not be enough to be the guy we want on every team. As great as he was last year, he still had just 2 Spike Weeks, and maybe most importantly his 3 key stacking partners are all going in the first 4 rounds. I’m wildly excited about the Texans offense, but making Stroud the cornerstone of 2024 would require an exorbitant amount of picks on the Texans in the first 5 rounds over the entire summer.
Kyler Murray – Kyler is maybe the most fascinating option yet. He’s not quite the runner of the top guys, but we know he brings a dynamic rushing element to the table. He has been a top 10 QB in each of the last two seasons in points per game, but despite his dynamism, he has zero nuclear weeks and just 5 total Spike Weeks over 19 games in that period. But we know the profile does lend itself to spike weeks, and the upgraded weapons are a huge deal. Mavin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and even Greg Dortch give us options for stacking, and even his two running backs are appealing and affordable. The continued lack of monster week upside is a bit concerning though, and when we add in the price on the two options we *really* want to stack him with in MHJ and McBride, I think it is tough to select Kyler as our answer here.
Joe Burrow – I’m a big proponent of not trying to predict injuries, but it would be a bit unreasonable to just completely avoid Burrow’s situation. The ACL is one thing, but this new wrist injury is a sort of peculiar one that we should at least note. Burrow has definitely shown the spike week upside, as he was 4th among QBs in that metric in 2022, was excellent in 2021, and he definitely has some exciting weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But the rushing has basically gone away for Burrow, with just 88 rushing yards last year, and he has the issue of the price of his stacking partners. If we want to get the full power of Burrow, we will likely need to get way overweight Chase, which means underweight some other superstars in the top 4-5 picks.
Dak Prescott – Just looking at 2023 production, Dak is probably the most underpriced QB in drafts. Sure, he’s not much of a runner anymore, but the Dallas passing offense was electric last year, helping Dak post the 3rd highest Spike Score at the position (just behind Hurts). He had the same number of nuclear weeks and just 1 fewer spike week than Josh Allen. He does have his share of concerns, however. It’s tough to know how sustainable that production is given the lack of rushing. It’s also tough to rely on that production given the Cowboys offense has not improved in the talent surrounding Dak, whether that be at the skill player spots or offensive line. We would ideally have CeeDee Lamb as our primary stacking partner with Dak, but he goes at the 1.02, so that will lead us into a whole lot of Dak/Ferguson, Dak/Cooks or Dak/Tolbert stacks. That doesn’t sound like my dream portfolio for a Best Ball season, even if Dak is appealing in a vacuum.
Jordan Love – Love was excellent in 2023 with the 9th highest spike score at QB, but QB4-QB9 were very, very close. His price is solid at the back end of the top 100 overall picks, and he’s not a zero on the ground with 247 rushing yards and 4 TDs. He didn’t put up any nuclear weeks, but only Josh Allen had fewer ‘dud weeks’ last year. It’s fair to question the ultimate weekly ceiling, but we are also talking about a player who was in his first year starting last year, so it’s also fair to expect some continued growth. On top of an intriguing profile at his price (and more limited opportunity cost relative to those above), the stacking partners open up a lot of doors for Love as our foundation. The Packers do not have a traditional pecking order or depth chart at the WR position (or even TE position), which gives us many avenues building Love teams with real upside at varying prices. Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks all offer different levels of appeal at different prices. The TE situation may have become clearer with the Tucker Kraft injury, and even Bo Melton offers a last round stacking partner with some real juice. Love is probably our strongest option yet.
Jayden Daniels – This past year’s Heisman trophy winner certainly offers an intriguing profile for a fantasy QB. Let’s just assume he won’t keep trying to run over linebackers in between the tackles at the NFL level, and his rushing upside could be truly elite for a fantasy QB. I’m a big Terry McLaurin fan, but it’s also more than fair to question the overall talent level around Daniels in his rookie year. The prices on his partners are nice, however, including a cheap (albeit scary) Jahan Dotson, 3rd round rookie Luke McCaffrey and rookie TE in Ben Sinnott. Even Austin Ekeler has been helpful for QBs in the passing game. I’m not sure I want to trust OC Kliff Kingsbury, but however we feel about Kliff, the fantasy upside of his offenses is there. Daniels is an intriguing option.
Caleb Williams – the number one overall pick in the draft actually goes just behind Daniels by ADP (on Underdog), but he has a lot of intriguing elements heading into his rookie year. Clearly he’s talented, and I’m not sure there has ever been a rookie QB this good with this level of talent around him on offense. The Bears have one of the best receiving rooms in all of football with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. Cole Kmet is also a reasonable NFL TE, and even DeAndrew Swift, Roschon Johnson and (maybe?) Khalil Herbert is a very talented RB room. Caleb is set up for success, but he doesn’t bring quite the rushing upside of a Daniels, and his stacking partners are tremendously more expensive. There are really no backdoor stacking options, so we would have to be a lot more intentional about our picks in the top 70 to focus on Bears WRs, which has some of those opportunity cost impacts.
Brock Purdy – Other than Dak, Purdy is probably the most undervalued QB in the player pool based on last year’s performance. It’s sort of funny that 4 49ers skill players go super early, Purdy had the production last year, and we still don’t take him all that high. He was 5th in Spike Score in 2023 among QBs, had 5 spike weeks and just 3 dud weeks. In a vacuum, Purdy is a serious contender. The problem is the price of his teammates. George Kittle’s price is reasonable for his profile, but the other 3 stacking partners go in the first 2 rounds, including the 1.01. The Ricky Pearsall price is reasonable, as is Eli Mitchell’s, but the entire reason Purdy is so good for fantasy is specifically because of CMC/Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle, so stacking Purdy with the guys who need those players to be injured is sort of a false sense of beneficial correlation.
Trevor Lawrence – the recently extended man and former number one overall pick has shown flashes on fantasy brilliance and also maddening play. He hasn’t quite reached the level everyone expected after being crowned the next great thing at QB early in his days at Clemson. Despite some drops issues by his teammates, he was solid with the 14th highest Spike Score last year and a nuclear week to boot. The prices on his stacking partners are totally reasonable. I am particularly fond of the QBs with strong TEs as stacking partners because I can really reap the rewards at the two onesie positions with my stack, and having a 1st round pick WR with upside is a nice perk too. There’s a lot to like about Lawrence, including some sneaky rushing upside with 339 rushing yards and 4 TDs last year, but I do admittedly question the exact talent of his teammates. Similar to Daniels, the weapons all have intrigue, but other than Brian Thomas, there isn’t the youthful unknown upside factor like we see with someone like Jordan Love. I think Lawrence probably deserves to be on our final list, though, especially if we want to buy into the fact that his teammates last year held him back.
Tua Tagovailoa – The Dolphins are one of the most, if not the most, exciting offense in the league. They even added new exciting weapons in Jonnu Smith, Jaylen Wright, Malik Washington and (I guess) Odell Beckham. But even with those weapons, Tua was just 15th in Spike Score at the QB position with just 2 spike weeks and 7 (!) dud weeks. Despite Mike McDaniel’s brilliance and those weapons, he operates as much more of a point guard than an apex predator for fantasy. That’s probably because he has just 144 rushing yards with zero touchdowns on the ground in the last two seasons. As mouth watering as his weapons, price and situation are, I just don’t see the profile to make our guy here. He also has the issues of Purdy above where we are really drafting him because of the impact of Tyreek/Waddle, so back-stacking him without either of those two feels a bit misguided.
Jared Goff – Goff feels very similar to Tua, so I won’t repeat myself too much. He’s a solid player, in a great situation and he is certainly capable of good fantasy performances. But there’s zero rushing upside here, and he had just 3 spike weeks with 7 dud weeks last year. If we really want to get our hand in the dirt, the Lions have upgraded their pass defense, which could lead to less shootouts, which were the primary driver of Goff’s big games.
Justin Herbert – Herbert has to be the most bizarre fantasy QB I can remember. We all agree on his talent, and he’s had a huge year for fantasy in his career. But absolutely everything about his situation has eroded in just a few months. He went from a super pass heavy offense with a bunch of talented pass catchers around him to a Harbuagh/Roman offense that wants to grind people out, run the ball, and win with defense. But the price is certainly accounting for that, which does make Herbert appealing. I think the biggest issue is that the stacking partners are… not great. We can tell ourselves a story about Ladd McConkey, Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston, but this is one of the worst receiving rooms in the league, and the TEs aren’t any better. I think Herbert is certainly draftable and an intriguing option, but we’ve also seen him fail for fantasy multiple years despite a far more appealing situation.
The ‘Punt QB’ Options – Beyond Justin Herbert in drafts, there’s a pretty steep dropoff both in ADP, but also in the ‘type’ of QB we are looking at. It’s certainly possible that you like Will Levis or Baker Mayfield a bit more than I do, and that’s completely reasonable. I actually do like both of those players as late round options, and I do draft them. But if I’m banking my entire season on you, I think the profile needs to be a bit stronger, even if the price is nice here. We also have the veteran pocket passers here, such as Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. It’s not that they can’t have their place in drafts, but the upside of this profile is just too weak for me. I can simply draft the pass catchers tied to these QBs and reap plenty of the rewards of their talent as a passer without dealing with the low ceiling brought on by this archetype.
The Wildcards – I just want to call out a few names here that I don’t think are the absolute craziest if someone were to land on them as their QB of choice. Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Bo Nix are all going very late in drafts despite very intriguing profiles. They all have the archetype that we generally want in that they add a strong rushing element, and with Fields/Jones specifically we have seen them be serious fantasy difference makers in the past. Maye/McCarthy/Nix are in the rookie cohort that we know to be super valuable in fantasy. I am personally not going to make any of these guys the lynchpin of my season, but I honestly don’t think it would be the craziest thing. It is definitely a higher risk strategy, but if Justin Fields were to actually win the Steelers job or simply take over the starting role partway through the season, he could end up as the very best pick in all of fantasy football in 2024. He was 6th among QBs in Spike Score last year. Same could be said for Jones if he reverts back to the 2022 version of himself while adding Malik Nabers. And the rookies could, similar to CJ Stroud, just be flat out better than we are expecting. These are strong bets, but I personally like using them as pairings with my foundational QB as opposed to making them the foundation.
Final list
I have blabbered on for a while now, so I am going to leave it at my final list of options that I came down to after going through this thought experiment. The premise, as I’m sure you understand, isn’t really to find the one QB I’m going to draft onto every team. But walking through all these players in this manner really helped me think about how I want to attack the QB position and, in turn, build out my portfolio of offenses and stacks.
My final list:
- Jordan Love
- Jayden Daniels
- Trevor Lawrence
