Season-to-date Recap
Decent Wild Card Weekend to kick off the playoffs, but boy were we close to a big one. Made a poor read on the James Cook addition Sunday morning with the Ty Johnson news, and a few very near misses with some nice ladder hits. Ultimately not complaining about a profitable week, but let’s see if we can capitalize a little better in the Wild Card round on some good spots.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Week 6:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.2 units)
- Props
- 2-17 (-9.51 units)
- Total
- 4-19 (-9.71 units)
Week 7:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 4-4 (+1.35 units)
- Total
- 7-4 (+5.35units)
Week 8:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.1 units)
- Props
- 9-3 (+5.4975 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+4.3975 units)
Week 9:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.4 units)
- Props
- 10-6 (+5.85 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+5.45 units)
Week 10:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (+0.76 units)
- Props
- 1-9 (-4.24 units)
- Total
- 3-11 (-3.48 units)
Week 11:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-2-1 (-2.24 units)
- Props
- 4-3 (+1.05 units)
- Total
- 4-5-1 (-1.19 units)
Week 12:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-1 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 3-4 (-0.36 units)
- Total
- 7-5 (+3.64 units)
Week 13:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-3 (-3.25 units)
- Props
- 5-11 (-3.15 units)
- Total
- 5-14 (-6.4 units)
Week 14:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (+0.3 units)
- Props
- 2-4 (-3.75 units)
- Total
- 4-6 (-3.45 units)
Week 15:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+3.02 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (+1.00 units)
- Total
- 8-6 (+4.02 units)
Week 16:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-1 (+0.95 units)
- Props
- 6-1 (+4.9 units)
- Total
- 8-2 (+5.85 units)
Week 17:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.13 units)
- Props
- 3-8 (-8.27 units)
- Total
- 5-10 (-8.40 units)
Wild Card Weekend:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-1-1 (-1.1 units)
- Props
- 11-15 (+2.7925 units)
- Total
- 11-16-1 (+1.6925 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 39-37-2 (+5.71 units)
- Props
- 93-106 (+8.7225 units)
- Total
- 132-143-2 (+14.4325 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Always make sure to check back before the games each weekend, especially in the prop section, as we will get new props trickling in to the books later in the week as injury reports are confirmed. Every time we make an update, we will send out a notification in discord. There are also other incredibly sharp bettors in there posting their favorite plays every week! If you have a premium subscription, but you aren’t currently in the discord, just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord”.
Divisional Round Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU/NEP | Under 41.5 | -118 | FD | 1 | The Texans have the best defense in the league, but they might have the worst offense left in the playoffs. Certainly, the Pats offense should have more success than a team like the Steelers, but this is going to be tough sledding. On the flip side, we saw the Patriots flummox Justin Herbert with pressure, and CJ Stroud can be limited in a very similar fashion. Add in the fact that Houston lost their one big time playmaker to a concussion against the Steelers, and we should have an old fashioned slug fest in this one. |
| 2 | SF/SEA | Seahawks -7 | -114 | Caesars | 1 | The putrid Eagles offense let me down in a big way last week, but (rather hilariously) I think the Seahawks have earned a lot more of our faith. Their defense is right there with Houston atop the league, they have home field and a week of rest. They just pummeled the Niners two weeks ago in this exact situation, except now the Niners are without George Kittle, another linebacker and Ricky Pearsall re-aggravated his knee injury in thier last meeting. |
Divisional Round Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back over the weekend, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Saturday or Sunday morning!
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF/DEN | RJ Harvey o52.5 rushing yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | We will continue to ride these ground attacks agains the Bills. The Broncos have flipped to home favorites, and the Bills run defense remains near league worst (2nd worst EPA/play to only the Giants) after being completely shredded by the Jags last week. Ed Oliver may be back, but the Broncos should exploit heavily feature their ground game with Harvey as the focal point. |
| 2 | SF/SEA | Zach Charbonnet o45.5 rushing yards | -120 | BetRivers | 1 | These two teams just played in Week 18 in Seattle, and while the final was 13-3, it was not that close. Seattle dominated the game with their defense and ground attack, and I don't see any reason that formula would change in the rematch. The Niners have been gotten weaker with the loss of George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and some defensive pieces, and Seattle had a week to rest up. That should lead to plenty of ground-and-pound with a run game that dominated with 180 rushing yards in the Week 18 matchup. Walker had 16 carries for 97 yards, and Zach Charbonnet put up 17 carries for 74 yards. They should see heavy volume again here and have plenty of success against this defense. |
| 3 | SF/SEA | Ken Walker o55.5 rushing yards | -113 | BetRivers | 1 | These two teams just played in Week 18 in Seattle, and while the final was 13-3, it was not that close. Seattle dominated the game with their defense and ground attack, and I don't see any reason that formula would change in the rematch. The Niners have been gotten weaker with the loss of George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and some defensive pieces, and Seattle had a week to rest up. That should lead to plenty of ground-and-pound with a run game that dominated with 180 rushing yards in the Week 18 matchup. Walker had 16 carries for 97 yards, and Zach Charbonnet put up 17 carries for 74 yards. They should see heavy volume again here and have plenty of success against this defense. |
| 4 | LAR/CHI | Luther Burden o36.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Burden had a "down" game last week with "only" 42 receiving yards, and the books continue to disrespect him. But he continued to play the 2nd most prominent role in the passing game to Colston Loveland with 7 targets, and he remains one of the most efficient WRs in football as he ascends to end his rookie season, and the Rams defense was just shredded through the air by Bryce Young and the Panthers passing game. |
| 5 | LAR/CHI | Luther Burden 50+ receiving yards | 160 | 365 | 1 | Burden alt line here. |
| 6 | HOU/NEP | Drake Maye o33.5 rushing yards | -118 | MGM | 1 | Vadim in our discord posted this, and I couldn't agree more, thus we are tailing. "Texans are top 3 team in pressure rate since wk 12, but they're also 4th in rushing yd allowed per game on scrambles in that same timeframe. Nobody has more rush yards on scrambles this season than Maye." |
| 7 | BUF/DEN | Courtland Sutton o45.5 receiving yards | -135 | Fanatics | 1 | Projection play. Projections have all 3 of the Broncos WRs well over their receiving props. It will be next to impossible for all 3 to come in under this number even in a low output passing performance for the Broncos. |
| 8 | BUF/DEN | Pat Bryant o30.5 receiving yards | -110 | MGM | 1 | Projection play. Projections have all 3 of the Broncos WRs well over their receiving props. It will be next to impossible for all 3 to come in under this number even in a low output passing performance for the Broncos. |
| 9 | BUF/DEN | Troy Franklin o19.5 receiving yards | -117 | BetRivers | 1 | Projection play. Projections have all 3 of the Broncos WRs well over their receiving props. It will be next to impossible for all 3 to come in under this number even in a low output passing performance for the Broncos. |
