It’s the week of the Super Bowl. We haven’t watched the big game and we already have a 2022 tournament ~35% full. That is crazy. ADPs are rapidly changing on a day-to-day basis. Kamara got arrested. Kyler unfollowed and removed all Cardinals’ mentions from his Instagram. People are grinding for any possible edge they can find.
So, over the next few weeks, I will outline each team in the NFL and provide what could change with the off-season right around the corner (Free Agency & the Draft).
Onto the AFC North.
Baltimore Ravens
Before I get into this write-up, I need to knock on wood and pray. Everyone and everything related to the Ravens’ got hurt this year. Throughout the offseason, 2 RBs were named league winners and cheat-codes for BBM II due to players getting them late. Which didn’t end up being the case. Regardless of who was healthy, they were a heavily sought-after team with 7 players being regularly drafted – J.K. Dobbins (32.8, RB15), Lamar Jackson (57.6, QB4), Mark Andrews (60, TE5), Marquise Brown (104.2, WR52), Gus Edwards (121.1, RB38), Rashod Bateman (141.3, WR67), and Sammy Watkins (167.2, WR77). Occasionally, Tylan Wallace (~1.8%) and Devin Duvernay (~2.7%) were drafted.
The injuries piled up and ended up being too much to overcome. Ravens’ players were inconsistent and led to mixed results. On one hand, we had league winners in Mark Andrews (TE2) and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (WR10). Mark Andrews was the must-have in the playoffs and was on 66% of BBM II Finals rosters (20% higher than any other player). The rest of the team could have filled out an entire wing at a hospital. They had 17 players placed on IR this year and therefore provided underwhelming results. Lamar Jackson was the QB9. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards were lost for the year in the pre-season and provided RB71 and RB65 seasons, respectively. Rashod Bateman was injured in the preseason and never really got caught up to speed leading to ending as WR66 and Sammy Watkins somehow finished above ADP at WR43.
The Ravens have been one of the better offenses in football over the last few years and didn’t disappoint to begin the year. However, there appeared to be a curse around this team and the practice field as multiple players sadly endured season-ending injuries. In terms of fantasy, there were two major ones – J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. J.K. Dobbins went down in their 3rd and final preseason game and chaos ensued. The industry was ready to crown Gus Edwards the league winner due to how efficient the Ravens’ rushing game has been and his ADP as a 12th round pick. It was short-lived as 4 days before their first game, both Gus Edwards suffered a torn ACL in practice. Despite, their top two RBs getting hurt, the offense looked as if it didn’t miss a beat getting out to an 8-3 start. They then lost their next 6 games (with Lamar missing 4 of them) to miss the playoffs.
The skeleton key to this year (Mark Andrews) was the benefit of an injury and not in the way you would expect. Don’t get me wrong, Mark Andrews was an above-average TE to start the year, but he was a tight end. He had a single spike week but was mostly providing usable weeks (~9 pts). Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson (in his one game) unlocked Mark Andrews by hyper-targeting him in negative game scripts. After Lamar got hurt (including the Cleveland game), Andrews averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game.
Going back to Lamar, the offense flowed through him, as it typically does. But it wore him down this year leading to the injury and the lack of weapons created unreliability in his results. He missed all but 1 quarter in the fantasy playoffs severely skewing his advancement data.
Looking forward to this year, the Ravens should have some continuity with their offense. Sammy Watkins, Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, Patrick Ricard, Josh Johnson, Ty’Son Williams, and Tyler Huntley are free agents. That may seem like a big list, but they wouldn’t have been primary contributors this year if there weren’t so many injuries. The Ravens currently have $8.7M in cap space and should primarily use that on their defense with Bateman expected to take a second-year leap (after a full off-season) and Dobbins and Edwards expected back from injury.
At the current ADPs on Underdog, I will be staying away from Mark Andrews. He is being drafted as the TE2 with the expectation he continues the hot streak at the end of the year (which occurred with a different QB). I will be grabbing Dobbins, Hollywood, and Bateman if they fall a little past ADP. Lamar is a priority target due to his rushing ability. I expect a bounce-back year. The Gus Bus is one of my favorite late-round RB targets. He is going to be involved if healthy and his value explodes if Dobbins gets hurt (again).
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals invested in this team by drafting an all-world talent WR in the first round of the draft and signing key defensive free agents. With a QB on a rookie contract, they started to push their chips in, and it has paid off. They will be playing for a Super Bowl this weekend.
Their season was split into two halves. Due to Burrow recovering from a torn-ACL in 2020, they were a run-centered offense to begin the year. As he got healthier, the coaching staff showed us glimpses of what this offense could truly become (+ PROE and can go head-to-head against anyone). Drafting season was no different. We saw Bengals’ players taken early, often, and even had some pre-season reports cause them to fall (Ja’Marr Chase and drops). Overall, 5 Bengals were drafted regularly in BBM II – Joe Mixon (20, RB13), Tee Higgins (45.8, WR22), Ja’Marr Chase (49.5, WR25), Tyler Boyd (67.8, WR32), and Joe Burrow (121.2, QB14). Occasionally, Samaje Perine (~18.7%) and C.J. Uzomah (~5.6%) were drafted.
As mentioned before, the Bengals were a tale of two halves. They started the year very run-centric and showed they could be more pass-centric in games they needed to. Due to the dramatic shifts, they provided a mixed bag of results. Joe Burrow was the QB16, Joe Mixon was the RB8, Ja’Marr Chase was the WR12, Tyler Boyd was the WR52, and Tee Higgins was the WR64. This isn’t overly surprising due to their run-centric approach as it made the wide-outs very boom or bust. Luckily for Chase drafters, he caught 13 TDs on the year with 5 of them being 30 or more yards. Mixon had his fair share of TD equity, also scoring 16 times with 13 coming on the ground and 3 through the air.
The craziest part of the year was although having Burrow, Boyd, and Higgins on teams was largely a disappointment throughout the year, they were needed in the playoffs. Boyd was an integral part of advancing out of the quarterfinals and Higgins and Burrow (if they snuck into the semis) carried teams to the finals. Then you get the blow-up week against the Chiefs in the finals and the Burrow-Chase stack won people some serious money.
This is one of the best cases of experiencing the variance we will get when looking back on the year. It just goes to show we are looking for spike weeks and the Bengals were exactly the type of team we should have been targeting. In terms of redraft, most would consider the Bengals major disappointments due to their natural inconsistencies. But in Best Ball, they are the exact type of performances we want. There is no roster management. You automatically get those spike performances placed in your starting lineup and the depth our teams have all for the ebbs and flows.
Looking forward to this year, Riley Reiff (RT), C.J Uzomah, Mike Thomas, Auden Tate, and Thaddeus Moss are free agents. There are plenty of holes opening on the defensive side of the ball. However, the Bengals are loaded with a hair over $58M in cap space. Their primary goal will be to bolster the offensive line (by far the weakest part of their team) to protect their franchise cornerstone, Joe Burrow. Outside of the line, expect them to target cheap, short-term deals on defense to round out the team. I am also starting to get a sense that C.J. Uzomah is going to take a hometown discount and be back on an under-market deal.
At current ADPs, I will probably come up a bit underweight on the Bengals. Don’t get me wrong, I think they are great picks. But they are going to be very difficult to stack and almost all of them cost a premium pick. I will make it a priority to grab Boyd (either as a one-off or as a priority with Burrow). I prefer Burrow past ADP, but he is a priority grab if you start with Chase, Mixon, or Higgins (or a combination of them). It should be an offense that takes the next step, albeit if we are drafting them near their ceilings.
Cleveland Browns
A robust RBs dream team. I think this write-up may cause me to throw up. A darling of the 2020 NFL Playoffs, the Browns were expected to take another step forward and contend for the AFC. As it played out, they wildly underperformed and ended under .500, and missed the playoffs. Head to Twitter and almost all of the blame is put on Baker Mayfield who tore his non-throwing shoulder in Week 2 and still managed to play in 14 games (albeit at a fraction of his normal self). Overall, people wanted a piece of the Browns with 7 players being drafted regularly – Nick Chubb (15, RB9), Kareem Hunt (67.7, RB25), Odell Beckham Jr. (56.2, WR28), Jarvis Landry (89.8, WR45), Baker Mayfield (155.4, QB20), Austin Hooper (184.9, TE22) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (18.6, WR85). Occasionally, David Njoku (~2.6%), Anthony Schwartz (~3%), Harrison Bryant (~1.1%), and Rashad Higgins (~13.7%) were drafted.
The Browns’ season was similar to the Ravens’ where they constantly dealt with injuries. Of the 7 players regularly drafted, all of them missed at least a game this year. The team was vastly underperforming (particularly on offense), and rumors started to spread that Odell wanted out. Due to contractual reasons, no one ended up trading for him, but they agreed to a buyout, and he ended up on the Rams. Surprisingly, right after his release, the Browns’ put up a 41-16 routing of the Bengals and he was OBJ was again cast as the “problem”. Turns out that wasn’t the case, as they went 3-5 over their net 8 games and the offense never really found a rhythm (shocker). In terms of advance rate, Baker Mayfield was the QB23, Nick Chubb was the RB32, Kareem Hunt was the RB48, Jarvis Landry was the WR61, Odell Beckham was the WR74, Donovan Peoples-Jones was the WR32, and Austin Hooper was the TE16.
Outside of Austin Hooper and DPJ, no one exceeded their ADP. This is almost entirely surprising considering Nick Chubb has always been labeled a “league-winner” if Kareem Hunt was hurt. We got this script with Hunt missing 9 games and getting hurt early in a 10th, yet Chubb was very inconsistent. He scored under 7 points the same number of times he scored over 20 and scored under 10 points more times than he scored over 10 points in those 9 games where Hunt was out. The Browns barely moved the football r averaging 32.6 yards per drive (which ranked 16th in the NFL) and converted 3rd downs at a 39.2% clip (17th in the NFL), which severely hurt everyone’s fantasy production.
Looking forward to this year, the Browns have one giant question surrounding the organization. What the hell do you do with Baker Mayfield? He is in the last year of his rookie deal, and you could trade him and wipe your hands clean (no dead cap hit), or you can sign him to an extension. One of them is going to happen, as he plays the most important position in the NFL. Outside of that, Jadeveon Clowney, Malik Jackson, David Njoku, Rashard Higgins, and D’ernest Johnson are free agents. Chocked with just shy of $25M in cap space, the Browns should be in the market for an upgrade on the EDGE and hopefully some offensive weapons. A receiving core of Jarvis Landry, DPJ, and Anthony Schwartz isn’t a challenge for defenses to cover.
In terms of drafts, I have been staying away from most Browns’ players. Some people will argue that Jarvis Landry remains criminally underpriced but although it’s true, he is not a target of mine in best ball as his ceiling is low. I am most interested in DPJ due to his usage as a deep threat and Kareem Hunt as a zero-RB target.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Just after I thought I was going to feel better after finishing the Browns’ write-up, I remembered I had to write about the Steelers and instantly got sick to my stomach. It is still baffling to me how this team ended up making the playoffs. Besides the playoffs, this offense performed about as well as we expected ranking in the bottom third of most categories. Overall, 6 Steelers were regularly drafted – Najee Harris (18.7, RB12), Diontae Johnson (47.1, WR23), Chase Claypool (51.9, WR26), JuJu Smith-Schuster (76.8, WR38), Ben Roethlisberger (176.5, QB22), and Eric Ebron (204.8, TE26). Occasionally, James Washington (~7.5%), Anthony McFarland (~1.3%), and Pat Freirmuth (~28.9%) were drafted.
Overall, the Steelers were good to own producing a QB1, RB1, TE1, while barely missing a WR1. Ben Roethlisberger was the QB12, Najee Harris was the RB5, Diontae Johnson was the WR13, Chase Claypool was the WR54, JuJu was the WR80, Eric Ebron was the TE26, and Pat Freiermuth was the TE5. Taking a further look, it is not all that surprising. Anyone with a pair of eyes could see that Ben didn’t have any arm strength anymore and was dinking and dunking his way down the field. He averaged 6.2 yards per attempt, Najee Harris led all running backs with 74 receptions, and Diontae Johnson was tied for 5th in receptions. Ben seemed to be carried by rosters as either the 2nd or 3rd QB and didn’t need to provide much of anything to help you advance. Freiermuth on the other hand vastly outperformed his ADP by taking advantage of his opportunity when Eric Ebron got hurt. He went on to be one of Ben’s favorite targets in the red zone and caught 7 touchdowns.
“Muth’s” emergence came at the helm of 2020 rookie breakout Chase Claypool. Claypool ended up replicating his 2020 stats but rarely found the endzone (twice compared to 9) last year), which hurt his overall metrics. JuJu, on the other hand, was looking to be the ying to Diontae’s yang, getting heavily targeted to start the year, yet suffered a regular season-ending injury in week 5.
Looking forward to this year, the Steeler’s are one of the more interesting teams to follow this year. The roster is ready to compete. But with Big Ben retiring, there is a giant hole on the roster. Will they draft someone? Will they trade for one? Could they do a mix of both? There’s a possibility they grab a bridge QB as well. With $31M in cap space and Juju, Eric Ebron, Trai Turner (RG), James Washington, Ray-Ray McCloud as free agents, the Steelers should be primarily looking to upgrade their QB (obviously), strengthen their OL (26th to end the year) and grab a WR or two (probably in the draft).
In terms of drafting, I will be grabbing the Steelers core around ADP. The best values are Claypool and Freiermuth as an improvement at the QB position should increase their outputs. I think Diontae is good, but am not making him a priority, as I think a new QB will spread the ball around more than Ben did. This is also what concerns me with Najee. His involvement in the passing game should decrease a bit, yet we can hope the OL improves and the offense improving overall makes him more efficient and increase his TD production.
