One of my very good friends is getting married this Saturday, so I’m going to (probably unsuccessfully) attempt to be quicker and to the point this week. Luckily, I do think it’s one of the slates where we can hone in on a pretty tight core of tournament plays and let it rip.
Let’s dig in.
Slate Overview
As mentioned above, with just a litany of bad QBs playing for a variety of teams, other injuries (Puka, etc) and some overall not so great game environments, this slate is a bit more condensed than some we’ve seen this year. That doesn’t mean there aren’t a variety of one off options or fun gal brain tournament pivots, but the top plays and game environments do stand out quite a bit above the rest.
That gives us some monster leverage opportunities and pretty easy paths to being different, but we need to ensure the requisite upside exists in our lineups given the strength of the “optimals”.
Speaking of optimals…
Optimals & Chalk
As of this writing, we just got the Kenneth Walker / Emmett Johnson news, and so optimals aren’t all the way figured out yet. But I can certainly tell you without it what the chalk is going to be on DraftKings.com.
QB – Tyler Shough
RB – Emmett Johnson w/ some combo of Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard
WR – Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave
TE – Tyler Warren
Even just with that, you can see how easy it is to put that “optimal” lineup together. Shough and Emmett provide a nice salary savings. Pay down at defense, Tyler Warren is cheap enough and you just need a cheap-ish WR to round it out. That’s a pretty strong lineup!
Tournament Angles
I’m starting here – just play Emmett Johnson. I am certainly aware of the nerdy ownership angles, but he’s $4.7k on DraftKings, a star in the making and a workhorse back who is elite as a receiver in a strong matchup with the Falcons.
In my humble opinion, the most exciting game of the slate from a weekly game standpoint is Panthers/Saints. These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL with two capable offenses and two teams who play at some of the quickest tempos in the entire league. It easily projects for the most plays of the slate, and the Saints pass heavy approach in a dome is just a fantasy goldmine. The Panthers also get multiple starting offensive lineman back for this game, which is almost as important as these other elements. They have struggled mightily for the last month or so against some tougher defenses because they simply could not protect Bryce Young. Shough is going to be more popular than Bryce, but both QBs project pretty close to the top of the slate at their position for a nice savings. The target trees are also very condensed on both sides, with Chris Olave and Jordyn Tyson for the Saints and Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker for the Panthers. Chuba Hubbard is almost assuredly going to have a good game here, but I tend to lean towards the pass game on both sides given the price on Chuba, ownership, and other RB options on this slate. Coker is easily my favorite tournament play, as his price has come way back down after an injury and a rough stretch with the struggling OL, but nothing has functionally changed from the player who we were thinking just a few short weeks ago was one of the biggest breakout stars in the entire league.
With some of the news and quirks of the slate, the Jaguars are becoming pretty exceptional tournament plays. They are going to score about as many points as they so choose against the depleted Titans defense, but the expected blowout nature of this game is keeping Trevor Lawrence, Bhahyshul Tuten, Parker Washington and Brenton Strange from generating too much interest from the field. But it’s kind of funny that a team we all know will score a bunch of points with reasonable prices across the board is lagging in ownership. They’re going to score a bunch of points! And it reminds me a bit of the Bengals game from a couple weeks ago where tournaments were won by full on game stacks of the Titans game. If the Titans cane push back at all, we could get multiple eruptions, and if you want some dirt cheap bring backs, you’ve got Chimere Dike and Gunnar Helm on the Titans side (and maybe Wan’Dale Robinson). Tuten’s ownership keeps falling, and the pass game is just moderately owned, so I really love both angles here to the Jags offense.
The Raiders run defense (and defense overall) is one of the most pathetic things I’ve seen in a while in the NFL. With the Seahawks defense, a banged up Drew Lock and Mendoza’s first NFL start, I expect a heavy dose of the run here in this matchup. That means Zach Charbonnet is in for his best game of this season. He looks spry in his return from injury, and he projects to take on all the high value touches for Seattle in an elite spot, and he is also far down the board ownership wise at RB.
Lastly, we have to discuss the Cowboys/49ers game. The only real issue here is price. There are going to be points. The 49ers are *definitely* going to score points, and the Cowboys are still a super talented offense that’s getting George Pickens back. But everything you want to play here is expensive. CMC is not the same old CMC in form or role, and he’s going to be very popular at a very expensive price. CeeDee Lamb is top 3 in WR ownership as well, so I like looking to George Pickens and George Kittle as pieces from this game who possess nuclear ceilings at more manageable prices and ownership.
Some other quick hitters:
You can make a similar case for the Bills as the Jaguars, but the Jets are a much better bet to push back. Josh Allen is tricky to fit, but he has two clear stacking partners going completely overlooked in DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid. This is also a really good spot for the first James Cook explosion, if you prefer to get your Bills exposure there.
Maybe the “sneakiest” tournament game, however, is the Texans/Browns. I understand the rushing matchup and Woody Marks’ likely workload if David Montgomery is again out, but the Texans simply cannot run the football. They have leaned into their passing game, and they can have a ton of success here with explosive plays, just like last week. Marvin Harrison is out, so we should get more routes out of Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Kayshon Boutte, even with Xavier Hutchinson getting a bunch. The Browns play far and away the most man coverage in the NFL, and before this year Nico Collins was a monster against man coverage. Tank Dell is reportedly a “full go”, and we saw what he can do from an upside perspective just last week. And the Texans defense is simply not the same defense we expected coming into the season, so a talented group of weapons for the Browns can absolutely push back here. Harold Fannin is the guy who pops a ton for me here as a bring back, filling a weak TE position with an elite ceiling that he’s shown with Watson at QB.
I’m as excited as anyone for the return of Kirk Cousins to Minnesota to bring Justin Jefferson back to life, but this isn’t exactly a clean matchup, and there’s no certainty Kirk is going to immediately solve everything. Heck, even if he does, it doesn’t mean that Jefferson is a lock to post a tournament winning score even at a reduced price against a Packers defense that has really been coming on strong in pass defense.
I actually think this is a better Christian Watson spot. I’m not going to scoff at Matthew Golden, at all, but Watson has been the preferred target for Jordan Love against the blitz and against zone coverage. The Vikings blitz on almost every play and they only play man coverage 4.7% of the time. Love is going to be chucking YOLO balls against the blitz to Watson, and I suspect one of two get home, just as they did in the first matchup.
I understand the appeal of the Rams TEs, but this screams Blake Corum game for me. He has been in a complete split with Kyren in positive or neutral game scripts, which this very much projects to be. I’m not sure he’s necessary given the Emmett/Charbs value and a decent overall crop of RBs, but he has legit 100/2 upside here against the Cardinals with no weapons and Carson Beck at QB.
Flag Plants
Often times, a lot of touts, including myself, will give this lengthy list of all these different plays and options for a DFS slate. I get it, but at the end of the day I also think it’s important to specifically communicate your actual favorite plays. So, here’s a list of my actual flag plants for this week. I think they apply to pretty much every format and every site, with just the TE position in your draft games being a smidge different.
QB – Tyler Shough, CJ Stroud
RB – Emmett Johnson, Zach Charbonnet
WR – Jalen Coker, Chris Olave
TE – George Kittle
But if you did want to ask me about some of my other favorite tournament options (all positions), these would be those guys.
Additional Core
QB – Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence
RB – Bhayshul Tuten, Blake Corum
WR – Nico Collins, Christian Watson
TE – Harold Fannin, Brenton Strange
Let’s get it.
