Last week had some monster hits, but the Lamar Jackson injury completely derailed the slate for the blueprint here. Injuries and chaos happen, and you ultimately needed the Bengals game stack to ship tournaments. On a much weaker slate, we might be in for a similar slate where one standout game stack completely nukes the slate, but that’s not really how people are building, which could make for a very, very fun week.
Let’s dig in.
(Little short on time this week, so I’ll add in the lineup review for Week 8 and Week 9 next week)
Slate Overview
What a strange slate. We have a plethora of cheap QBs, many of which are sketchy backups. We have some extremely strong superstar spend ups at RB/WR. But we have almost zero true shootout environments – a large diversion from last week and many recent weeks.
That makes for a fun and unique puzzle. As always, we’ll dig into this more in the sections below, but there is such a clear build in terms of where you spend up and spend down this week that even the most noob DFS player could figure it out. Clearly that is the best way to build strongly projected lineups, but it’s also super exploitable. You don’t have to go super crazy straying away from the best lineups and best plays, but we do have to find a unique path to get to the top of tournaments. If we just play a different cheap QB with different cheap WRs or mid tier RBs alongside the CMC/Puka/Kittle spend ups, we are technically “unique”, but we are really just playing coin flips with so many other teams with slightly worse versions of the same lineup.
We don’t want to stray from the best lineup builds just to be different, but we do want to build lineups with a purpose. I always think back to the quote from Awesemo years ago on slates like this. We want to “win the low scoring slates”. I think this is the perfect slate for that. We don’t just want to try to outscore our opponents, as weird as that sounds. We want to build teams that win when our opponents fail. When they’re all building the same lineups structurally, leaning into different structures can accomplish this, especially on slates without a ton of high powered game environments.
Optimals & Chalk
Like each week, I ran 50 lineups with no restrictions in RotoGrinders LineupHQ, which is where I like to start to get a gist for what is popping in “optimal lineups”. Here was the top projected lineup on DraftKings:
As outlined above, it’s clear as day what the optimal build is doing. Whether it’s Drew Lock or one of the other cheap QBs, Antonio Williams or another cheap WR, Jonah/Woody or other mid tier backs, that structure gets you to CMC/Puka/Kittle with strongly projected lineups.
I will talk about the smash spot for the 49ers in a sec, but I think outside of that, there’s nothing that is “can’t miss” on this slate. And there’s no rule that both Kittle and CMC have to be slate winners at these prices and ownerships, but there’s almost no argument for the Niners struggling to score points here.
After that, I think everything is exploitable on this slate. I have a few favorite ways to attack, but I think wherever your ultimate conviction lies, don’t be afraid to lean alllll the way into it. And if your conviction lies in an offense like the 49ers or Lions simply scoring a boatload of points, that seems like a pretty good conviction to have as well.
Tournament Angles
The cleanest part of this slate for me is that there are 4 awesome offenses in spots against really bad defenses. But they aren’t all popping into top projected lineups, and they can’t all be popular.
The 49ers is where we have to start. Off a bye without Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have outrageous projections and upside against a Raiders defense that is an abomination. They bleed points everywhere, but they’ve also been truly laughable in run defense. Meanwhile, George Kittle has a 35% target share and a YPRR north of 4 without Evans/Deebo on the field this season. Brock Purdy is the spend up QB of choice for the field, but I really prefer the weapons here because the Raiders offense should struggle to push San Fran. The Niners defense is super healthy after the bye with Bosa and co. back, plus they added DeForrest Buckner from the Colts. The Raiders offense has thrived in garbage time/catch up mode, and I’m not sure we should expect that kind of success here, so I do worry about passing volume and the split with CMC/Kaelon Black in terms of pure ceiling.
The Rams also can name their number here. Washington’s defense is also in shambles, picking up several key injuries last week as well. Puka Nacua is always a smash in these matchups without Davante Adams, but Terrance Ferguson remains out, and Colby Parkinson is questionable. This screams run heavy with a strong dose of a Puka, especially against a struggling Washington offense that has to face a strong Rams D that gets Myles Garrett back this week. The issue, of course, is that Kyren Williams is a bit pricey in a 50/50 split if the game script goes according to plan, and Blake Corum just might not have quite the ceiling of some other ‘value’ RBs. Corum is awfully tempting against one of the worst EPA run defenses in the league, though.
The Lions are next up in the “name your score” list of elite offenses. Absolutely no one denies they will score about as much as they’d like, especially given another rash of defensive injuries that leave them vulnerable to even the lowly Dolphins offense scoring enough points to push them. But their pricing makes it difficult to hit optimals, and that might just be a massive edge here. If the Dolphins can really push back here, the Lions are going to score gobs of points, but their ownership does not project to run away from us. The optimals actually have more ownership on Rams/Commanders because of the Commanders cheap WR projections without Terry McLaurin, but I think this game has far more “had to have it” tournament upside on both sides. There’s even leverage opportunities with Greg Dulcich projecting very popular. It’s not to say you have to fade Dulcich, but Sam LaPorta is in an equally incredible spot. And you can play Dolphins cheap WRs (Malik Washington and Caleb Douglas for me) in lieu of Dulcich and get the leverage holy grail in a potential shootout.
Then we have the Dallas Cowboys. After a pathetic performance against the Cardinals last week, I’m not sure they should be included in the same list as the top 3 teams, but this matchup is just as good. My gut tells me the Cowboys lean back into the pass here after going too run heavy last week and it costing them big time. The Colts, meanwhile, have rolled over and died on defense (and offense). The Cowboys still have elite offensive upside in these matchups, even if they are more inconsistent than the other 3 teams here. Javonte Williams needs multiple touchdowns to pay off here, but there’s no denying he can do that with the pathetic Colts run defense that just got totally run over by the Jags. CeeDee Lamb can always go nuts, and George Pickens might be my favorite WR play of the entire slate. It’s been a turbulent and disappointing season, but they absolutely HAVE to get him going, and this is an elite spot to do so. The Colts played a significantly lower rate of 2 high coverage last week thanks to their run defense issues, and that is precisely when Pickens feasts. The Cowboys defense is also never shutting anyone down, so you can even get push back from this pathetic Colts team. Josh Downs and Tyler Warren make for low owned, high upside bring backs as pivots off other chalkier options that you can play into a shootout here. I much prefer Warren, to be clear.
Some other quick hitters:
I really want to focus my efforts on these smash offenses as the foundation of what I do on this slate, but of course we have to piece lineups together around them.
Drew Lock pops as the highest projected punt QB, and I get it, but a very low passing volume Drew Lock game doesn’t scream tournament winner for me. JSN is going to be paired with him on nearly every lineup, so that’s also a small tournament problem, even though JSN is clearly always a good play in a vacuum.
Hilariously, I actually prefer Joe Milton, Shedeur Sanders or Malik Willis if paying way down at QB. I’ve discussed the Dolphins case already above, and Willis is a rushing QB with the highest floor amongst all these guys.
I am not a Shedeur fan in real life, but the Saints defense is simply that bad. Pair that with a bunch of genuinely exciting young weapons in Harold Fannin, KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston and a couple fun RBs, Shedeur can get carried by the matchup and surrounding talent pretty easily here. KC and Fannin are two super high upside tournament options that I prefer to pair with him. However, you can play Quinshon Judkins in lieu of the passing game, too. The Saints run defense is one of the single worst int he league, on par with the Colts, Raiders, Commanders and Panthers. The Browns offense is easily one of my favorite tournament angles given this matchup, but it’s admittedly not the easiest to pinpoint which individual play. And that’s why they are not popular at all.
I am ashamed to admit I went back and watched Joe Milton’s preseason games today. It’s just the preseason, and Joe Fagnano wasn’t bad in the preseason either, so grain of salt and all that. But I came away more optimistic about him than I was before. I think he’s improved as a passer, and while he’s not really a runner, he has some GL rushing upside and a non-zero amount of overall rushing floor. The Giants defense is also in the bottom tier in the NFL, though they are a good bit worse in run defense than pass defense, which makes me overall just neutral on Milton. I think he does potentially elevate Makai Lemon’s ceiling, and that would be my preferred pairing.
I understand Woody Marks is going to get a bunch of volume, but we’ve seen this movie before. The game script will be great, but the Texans can’t run on anyone. Pass for me.
Same for Tyler Allgeier. The Seahawks have the best run defense in the league. The Cardinals offense is a disaster. No thank you.
I am not opposed to Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams in general, but this feels like a great spot to differentiate. They are the highest owned WRs in that range, but the Rams defense got some pretty major reinforcements this week, and the Commanders as chalk does not sit well with me here.
Jonah Coleman feels stronger. He took over the backfield in the 2nd half last week, and I’m sure Sean Payton will pull a ‘Lucy with the football’ on us if we lean into Jonah, but he draws one of the better matchups in the league with the Panthers run defense, and he’s workhorse profile with both pass catching and goal line chops.
We made it this far and still haven’t discussed Kenneth Walker, which is probably a mistake. He’s falling through the cracks quite a bit this week, which might make him the best spend up tournament play on the board. The Jets run defense is super fraudulent, in my opinion, skewing their season long numbers against some of the worst running teams in the league while getting roasted by the good running teams.
On the opposite side, Garrett Wilson is out for the Jets, which opens up a lot of targets for Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. The Chiefs are far stronger against outside WRs, and they funnel a large percentage of targets into the slot. Cooper has run 64% of his routes from the slot this season, and he makes for an incredible bounce back option at WR after a dud last week.
Another supremely talented player that is going ‘overlooked’ and is super appealing for tournaments is Malik Nabers. Devin Singletary is likely to become chalky, and I have no real push back there with Cam Skattebo hurt. I think he’s a strong play, but Nabers is still underpriced, and the Eagles pass defense has actually been worse than their run defense. I don’t think JJ McCarthy is the craziest play, but I really mostly prefer Nabers. He has been targeted relentlessly all year, but McCarthy has continued that trend. Quinyon Mitchell is still a very tough cover corner, but he’s shown some leaks in his game amidst this Eagles disaster, and the Giants can get Nabers moved away from him if they so choose.
Flag Plants
Often times, a lot of touts, including myself, will give this lengthy list of all these different plays and options for a DFS slate. I get it, but at the end of the day I also think it’s important to specifically communicate your actual favorite plays. So, here’s a list of my actual flag plants for this week. I think they apply to pretty much every format and every site, with just the TE position in your draft games being a smidge different.
QB – Dak Prescott
RB – Kenneth Walker
WR – George Pickens
TE – Tyler Warren
But if you did want to ask me about some of my other favorite tournament options (all positions), these would be those guys.
Additional Core
QB – Malik Willis
RB – Jonah Coleman, Quinshon Judkins
WR – Omar Cooper Jr., Malik Nabers
TE – Harold Fannin
Let’s get it.
