This week 8 slate might be the most exciting one of the entire season. Not only are there some huge real football matchups, there are some high totaled potential shootouts and even some “sneaky” shootouts with a loaded group of RBs to choose from. You will have to make some excruciating decisions in each lineup that will leave off some good plays, but it’s also an outstanding slate to build super high upside teams with some lower owned angles.
Let’s dig in.
Week 7 Team Review
I wanted to add in a quick section for review of my main team (on DK) from the prior week. Accountability is important for a “tout”, and I want to share where I landed on a core team from the thoughts discussed in this piece.
This team was built around the core of RBs who I discussed loving in the mid tier, especially as pivots both positionally and roster construction wise from the chalky expensive backs (Bijan, Gibbs, CMC) and the chalk “cheap” back in Woody Marks. I discussed punting with Malik Willis, who came in at just 1% ownership despite a good matchup with the Jets, and that allowing you to fit the players and stacks that you want but are a bit more difficult to fit with their more expensive QBs.
With Puka Nacua in, he was simming off the charts for me, as was Konata Mumpfield as a pivot off the other cheap chalk WRs, and that also created a Rams/Raiders game stack with Jeanty, which I loved. This also allowed me to fit a Packers stack of Watson (quasi leverage off a more popular Golden) and Kraft, and not eat the chalk of Jordan Love at QB.
I didn’t have the Bucs DST or Tony Pollard, and my WRs clearly didn’t quite get there, but overall felt good about this lineup process and it turned into a successful week.
Slate Overview
We’ve got arguably the most exciting slate of the year on our hands, as I mentioned at the top. But it’s not just exciting because of the exciting games or exciting plays. We have some injuries creating some projections for players, and thus creating some ownership, that I think is going to leave some really strong plays either low owned or under owned.
Unfortunately some of my favorite plays of the week have continued to creep up in ownership, but the absence of Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, and AJ Brown are pushing some guys into optimals that I think make for really great fades in favor of some of the options we’ll outline below.
We do have an extraordinarily strong crop of RBs this week, which is probably the starting point of builds. They cannot all be popular, which is a huge potential tournament spot to attack. All of these players project well for their price:
- Chase Brown
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Bhayshul Tuten
- Javonte Williams
- Bucky Irving
- Braelon Allen (if Breece out again)
- Tony Pollard
- Jonah Coleman
- Ashton Jeanty
- Jaylen Warren
And those are just the mid tier and cheaper options! We still have Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, James Cook and Kyren Williams on the slate.
Many weeks I am starting with my RBs and sort of making things work around it in my hand builds/single entry stuff. That’s what led me to the pretty funky Malik Willis team above from Week 7. This week, with SO many awesome RB plays, I expect to do the opposite. There are a few stacks that stand out well above the rest (you already know I love Lamar/Zay), and I think you can make whichever your preferred QB/WR/TE plays work with almost any collection of RBs.
Naturally, we still would like to play the lower owned backs if we had our druthers, and we want to be cognizant of the overall ownership of the lineup as a whole. But I will almost assuredly be playing 3 RB teams this week and fitting my stacks in around it.
Optimals & Chalk
Like each week, I ran 50 lineups with no restrictions in RotoGrinders LineupHQ, which is where I like to start to get a gist for what is popping in “optimal lineups”. Here was the top projected lineup on DraftKings:
This is sort of what I was talking about with some fairly “gross” optimal lineups. This is admittedly not a collection of all the chalkiest players on the slate, so it’s not just as simple as pivoting from some of these options. Players like Zay Flowers, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bhayshul Tuten, etc. are going to be popular even if they aren’t hitting the top optimals.
But I do think it’s possible we see some really amazing plays not run away from us ownership wise thanks to the emergence of some of these strong point per dollar projections due to injury.
You also see Dak Prescott as very popular here at QB, but neither Pickens or CeeDee are hitting these top lineups. You also see multiple Bengals and even a Titan on the other side, but no Joe Burrow. And then you see multiple Patriots hitting optimals, but Drake Maye not being overly popular.
Tournament Angles
We are nothing as humans without our morals. And I cannot in good conscience not play and recommend Zay Flowers with Lamar Jackson back at the helm in a matchup with the Buffalo Bills. I frankly do not care about him projecting to be one of the more popular players on the slate. I actually think he may still come in a bit under owned, and that’s because the projections I’m seeing for him are still a bit lighter than my own. The Bills defense is one of the worst in the league, and with Lamar at QB, Zay is effectively in the tier of JSN/Puka at WR. I understand how that sounds, but the data, the eye test and everything support it. The game has the highest total of the week, and Zay isn’t even priced up yet. You will not see a lineup of mine without him, and Lamar is my number one tournament QB. I am personally out on the corpse of Mark Andrews, especially with Josh Cuevas and Matthew Hibner stealing playing time. But I do think Ja’Kobi Lane is in for his first big game of the season as he continues to grow in his role with full health and Lamar back in a shootout.
On the opposite side, DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid are questionable. I expect both to play, and they are both phenomenal options in the marquee game of the week. Moore specifically is super cheap in all formats, and he is a wildly important for the Bills offensive ceiling. In his two full games, he has averaged 3.4 YPRR with 18 targets. The Bills scored 60 points in those games, and the Ravens defense has not been a scary unit this season. If you can afford Josh Allen and prefer him to Lamar, you will get no pushback from me. I just think you get a similar ceiling for cheaper with Lamar.
The Colts have rolled over and died, which should lead to a strong game for the Jaguars. Jakobi Meyers is questionable, which could open up Josh Cameron or Travis Hunter at WR, but I tend to still prefer Parker Washington given the Colts porous defense against slot receivers. However, given this expected game script and the Colts run defense, this is the Bhayshul Tuten eruption spot for me. Yes, he will cede a little work to Chris Rodriguez, but the Colts are bottom 5 in most rushing metrics, including yards before contact which has been the thing holding Tuten back thus far, and they just traded away their best run defending defensive lineman in DeForrest Buckner this week.
The Cowboys are also going to score a boatload of points here. Their OL is healthy, and the Cardinals defense is one of the very worst in the league. Javonte Williams is assuredly going to have a good game, but he has not been too involved in the passing game in recent weeks, which means he likely needs 2-3 touchdowns to be the guy you need amongst all of these awesome RBs. He very well may do it, but George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb will have something to say about that. With so many strong RBs, many cheaper than Javonte, I do prefer the WRs here. This does feel like the typical Pickens bounce back eruption, with the Cardinals playing heavy boxes at one of the higher rates in the league and giving up explosives in the passing game at a similarly high rate. I am absolutely not slandering CeeDee, or the double stack, but Pickens is $1.5k cheaper on DK. On the other side, if the Cowboys push the Cards to a major negative game script, Jacoby Brissett can absolutely have a very strong performance, but my ideal pairing with him is easily Trey McBride over Michael Wilson. The addition of Joey Porter Jr. at corner for the Cowboys gives them a huge weapon against Michael Wilson, and teams have already been showing him tons more attention since the trade of Marvin Harrison Jr. I do just want to note that the Cardinals have been one of the worst offenses in the league this year.
The super sicko shootout of the week is Raiders/Jets. I tend to think Breece Hall is not going to play, which just adds Braelon Allen as another elite RB play. He may be one of my favorites, though. It is another weird thing to say, but he is one of the biggest workhorses in the entire league without Breece, and the Raiders defense is putrid. But they can also be got through the air, so Geno Smith stacks with breakout rookie stud Omar Cooper Jr. are also quite appealing. It’s an intriguing way to pay down at a QB/WR stack to fit what you want around it. And the Jets defense is also quite poor, which should allow the Raiders offense to have plenty of success. They also just placed T’Vondre Sweat on IR and David Bailey is doubtful. If Ashton Jeanty is ever going to do it, this is the spot. No one is going to play him given the RB options. But it also could be Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker through the air, seeing as how the Dolphins just wrecked this defense with Caleb Douglas and Greg Dulcich. Neither of those plays will be popular, either.
The last core piece of the slate, in my opinion, is the Patriots. They draw the elite matchup with the Dolphins and AJ Brown, TreVeyon Henderson, Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are out. Even with these absences, they’re going to score plenty of points. Ownership is, appropriately, directing towards Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry as the most likely beneficiaries. Rhamondre stinks, but the role should be so strong for his price in a very positive game script that he’s hard to avoid, with the caveat of the elite crop of RB plays. Hunter Henry is still probably not a nuclear TE option, but he has the highest floor outside of Bowers/McBride, especially given the Dolphins woeful TE defense. They’re 31st in yards per target allowed to the position and even let Mason Taylor have a nuclear week against them. If you want to dive into the WRs, I think Efton Chism is a super sneaky at the bottom end. He simply earns targets when he’s on the field, which is more than can be said for Kyle Williams. Pop Douglas is probably their *best* receiver, but I’m a bit unsure if he will play outside in 2 WR sets, which we may see more of in this matchup and game script with more Eli Raridon very likely.
Some other quick hitters:
Similar to Jeanty, if Chase Brown doesn’t do it this week, it probably is never going to happen. His role is effectively the exact same as last year, but the production hasn’t been there. That’s in part due to bad luck, and in part due to the fact he’s just not a true difference making football player. The game script is set up perfectly for him against the lowly Titans who can’t move the ball on anyone and won’t be able to without Carnell Tate. They also traded superstar DL Jeffery Simmons, which should turn their run defense from solid to pathetic.
Yes, we made it this far without discussing a Lions game. Full transparency, I will not be playing anyone from this game. Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson can absolutely have good games, but we’ve seen this Vikings offense in many good spots and not produce tournament winning results. The Lions defense is slowly getting healthier, and the Vikings have one of the worst offenses in the league. On the other side, the Lions will always score some points, but this is just a really tough matchup for fantasy upside. The Vikings stop the run, make you throw quick, and they make RBs like Gibbs stay in to block a ton, which reduces pass catching upside. I’d project Amon-Ra to have a solid day as the safety valve here, but there are just other games that have more of my attention, especially with the pricing in this game. Admittedly, this is a risk, but we have to draw a line somewhere on a loaded slate.
I am also much lighter on the Tampa Bay Bucs than ownership dictates. The Bucs want to lean on their defense and run the ball, which we saw last week with just 11 pass attempts against the Panthers. That’s good for Bucky Irving’s volume, but the Falcons have an extremely stout run defense. Chris Godwin is going to catch some passes, but he is Mark Andrews level cooked, and this passing game has been close to the bottom of the league all season. Bijan Robinson will have a great role, but no one can run on the Bucs, and his pass game usage with Michael Penix is nowhere near enough to distance himself from the strong pack of RBs.
I love Kenneth Walker here, but again, it’s a RB depth problem. If you can fit him, I think he’s the best spend up RB on the board in a far better matchup than Bijan/Gibbs and similar fantasy upside.
Lastly, I’m just saying, Ladd McConkey is $5300 on DK and not drafted in draft games. I don’t like it anymore than you do, but Ladd has been legitimately good when healthy, even amidst the Chargers dumpster fire.
Flag Plants
Often times, a lot of touts, including myself, will give this lengthy list of all these different plays and options for a DFS slate. I get it, but at the end of the day I also think it’s important to specifically communicate your actual favorite plays. So, here’s a list of my actual flag plants for this week. I think they apply to pretty much every format and every site, with just the TE position in your draft games being a smidge different.
QB – Lamar Jackson
RB – Bhayshul Tuten, Braelon Allen (if Breece out)
WR – Zay Flowers, DJ Moore
TE – Hunter Henry
But if you did want to ask me about some of my other favorite tournament options (all positions), these would be those guys.
Additional Core
QB – Josh Allen, Geno Smith
RB – Rhamondre Stevenson, Ashton Jeanty
WR – Omar Cooper Jr., George Pickens, Efton Chism
TE – Trey McBride
Let’s get it.
