Four teams are on bye this week, and they’re particularly fantasy relevant teams, led by the Lions. Combine that a London game, and we have our smallest main slate of the season across the board. With varying levels of value and a lack of depth of plays at pretty much every position, these tend to be some of the most fun slates of the season.
Let’s dig in.
Slate Overview
Last week the entire slate rested upon how you handled the Lions/Cardinals game. It turned out the answer was pretty much just Jahmyr Gibbs, but we don’t really have a game like that this week. We also don’t have total slam dunk “values” from a projection or situation standpoint this week either. We will get more into those specific names in the next section, but rather than any particular game or stack or play as the crux of how we think about strategy this week, I really think it’s more of a roster construction thing.
With fewer games, we have fewer strong projections. That makes the little “value” we do have pop more than it would on a different slate, not just because of their particular projection, but because they allow you to get to the small subset of “sure things” on the upper end of the pricing. Josh Allen, Bijan Robinson and Puka Nacua gap the field, and there are fewer options to combat them with higher upside plays. Last week, if you ignored Amon-Ra St. Brown or even Jahmyr Gibbs, you had lower owned Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson at the high end, or you had a total Jaylen Warren smash in the mid range. You also had the Packers weapons in the mid tier to create savings down from an Amon-Ra type or a pivot off of the uber chalk Michael Wilson. It’s not that these pivots don’t exist, but naturally there are just fewer options this week.
Let’s take a look at what’s spitting out as optimal and/or popular to start to figure out those pivots and unique roster constructions.
Optimals & Chalk
Like each week, I ran 50 lineups with no restrictions in RotoGrinders LineupHQ, which is where I like to start to get a gist for what is popping in “optimal lineups”. Here was the top projected lineup on DraftKings:
This hits on what I mentioned above in the summary section. Those studs at the top in Allen, Bijan and Puka are so strong that the field is naturally going to jam them in using these cheap WRs stepping into more opportunity like Xavier Worthy or Germie Bernard. But that also forces things like two cheaper TEs, poor punt DSTs, and heavy ownership on value WRs that are very far from infallible.
I think we’ve officially reached the point where double TE on DraftKings is so en vogue that it’s nowhere near the sharp angle that is exploitable, and I think this week encapsulates that the best. In order to jam in the best expensive plays, you really have no other option but to play the cheap chalk at WR like Worthy and Germie, and then you still need even more value, so you see 2 TEs being spit out. I don’t mean to say that’s *bad*, I just mean it’s exploitable.
But even more exploitable is this specific version of the stars and scrubs approach to Week Six. If Josh Allen doesn’t spit out as optimal, then Matthew Stafford does. Which leads us to the Rams as the crux of the slate. They have an astronomical team total against the woeful Cardinals, and they are fresh off a series of crazy games that required a million drop backs and incredible fantasy outputs. More on that in a bit, but the popularity of Puka/Kyren/Stafford at their prices drives a lot of the roster construction by the field.
This structure you see above, though, is the biggest takeaway. Jam studs, use some cheap WRs, cheap TEs and cheap DSTs to make them fit. I am super intrigued by simply taking a different roster construction angle away from this. It could be simply punting it off at QB, which would allow you to play some of these studs that are clearly awesome plays, but you can afford another stud over a punt WR or punt TE. Or maybe you can get up to a much lower owned defense. Maybe that Brock Bowers fella against a horrendous Bills defense?
You also can take some swings in the mid tier where the field is gravitating to less. What if one of the slightly less appealing games pop off where several options between the Bijan/Puka tier and the Worthy/Germie tier have big games? Not only is that particular game lower owned, but it naturally leads you to a different structure than the field with different one offs around it, but if you can still fit a Bijan type, you’re wildly different than other Bijan teams in terms of the players you paired with him.
Tournament Angles
I always love to start this section with my silly broken brain angles, but I think my broken brain angles this week are actually centered around the most popular games and teams. Let’s start with the Rams. They are the clear chalk with both Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams drawing heavy ownership, understandably so. My point here is not to say those guys are going to have bad games. I’m not that crazy. But I think the recent results from Rams games are wildly misleading in terms of applying them to this matchup. The Rams are near 2 TD favorites over the Cardinals corpse, and that is dramatically different from the games they have recently played. Matthew Stafford has dropped back more than 50 times in 3 straight games, which has happened almost never in modern football history. They’ve been pushed by good teams and the game script has turned into crazy passing volume, which leads to huge opportunity for Puka and Kyren. But in neutral or positive game scripts, the Rams don’t want to be this crazy 50 drop back team. And they don’t really want to lean entirely on Kyren Williams. Blake Corum is going to split snaps with Kyren Williams in a more positive game script, and I bet a ton of Corum overs this week in the Betting Blueprint. The Rams studs are going to be just fine, but I don’t think ownership is appropriately accounting for just how different this game script is going to be.
Then we have the Bills. Josh Allen rocks, he’s going to have a great Josh Allen game, and I’m not planting my flag against him by any stretch of the imagination. But he’s incredibly expensive, popular and forces a roster construction on lineups that makes you flip more coins against other Allen teams than you’d like. Which leads me to one of my biggest flag plants of the week and the poster boy on this article, James Cook. He’s not super expensive in draft games, he’s a tier below the top guys in DFS pricing and ownership projections have him somewhere in the 10% range in DFS. Despite Allen stealing a million touchdowns, Cook continues to put up awesome games with 5 TDs of his own through 5 weeks. But the Raiders defense sets up wonderfully for him, especially with these ownership angles. They’ve allowed the 2nd most run plays of 10+ yards, and we’ve yet to see James Cook with a run longer than 35 yards. The big ones are coming, and he’s going to have the opportunity to do so here with the Bills leading the league in yards before contact per attempt and the Raiders defense last in the league in yards before contact. He’s going to be running free into the second level of this defense in a positive game script, and we know he has a nuclear ceiling. I do not hate Khalil Shakir or Keon Coleman without DJ Moore, but if you are playing Allen (or even if you’re not) I think it’s an incredible bounce back spot for Dalton Kincaid. The Raiders have been one of the worst teams in the league against TEs, Kincaid ran a season high percentage of routes last week, and he’s had a couple down games where Joe Brady has reiterated that he needs to make sure Kincaid is involved.
The Chiefs will be without Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton, which is what is driving the aforementioned Xavier Worthy chalk. I get it, but this strikes me as one of the most exploitable types of situations that we get in NFL seasons. Xavier Worthy has played without Rice, he’s played in setups where he theoretically is the go-to guy, and he has simply never elevated to that level. And yet, projections continue to push volume to him that I am not sure he has earned. I would certainly rather lean on Kenneth Walker, as the Chiefs should cruise to a win here with little pressure from the Chargers injury riddled offense to be super aggressive. The matchup is just ok for Walker, but he has reached the “matchups don’t matter” stratosphere of running back, especially if the game script favors him. And if you want to wade into the uncertainty of the new Chiefs WR room, I think both Jalen Royals and Cyrus Allen are fun swings in DFS tournaments. I lean to Royals because of my belief in the talent, but that’s simply a personal lean, and I think both players are set up to benefit even more than Worthy at zero ownership relative to him.
This is a DraftKings only take, so I’ll make it quick. Tanner McKee is the stone minimum. The Panthers are a great matchup with their defensive injuries, and DeVonta Smith is back. The Eagles might be broken beyond repair, but McKee has been a quality backup when thrust into action in his career, including the preseason, and I think he’s firmly in consideration for me, even if it’s just as a naked QB play to jam studs around him.
The Falcons are in one of the best spots of the week, and both Bijan Robinson and Drake London should be huge priorities for all of us. Bijan is in an elite spot against the Bears soft run defense and, well, he’s Bijan. He’s the top spend up on the slate, just edging out Puka Nacua. But London shouldn’t just be an afterthought. With Michael Penix as his QB, London has a 35% target share and 50% air yards share. He hasn’t scored a touchdown this year, keeping his price and perception in check, but he’s approaching JSN/Puka/Zay level usage in this offense against a defense that just coughed up elite games to both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Brock Bowers is still underpriced. On Draftkings, in draft games, everywhere. We have to continue to remind ourselves that his TE label is nonsense. He’s an elite WR who we get to play at TE. He has played just 16% of his snaps this season inline, splitting most of his time between the slot and out wide. He’s playing a version of the JSN role in this Klint Kubiak offense, and the Bills grade out as a defense similar to the Cowboys and Lions. He’s not some crazy low owned player, but I’d argue he’s under owned given the “optimal” roster construction we outlined above.
Some other quick hitters:
The Saints/Giants game is either going to be a mess or a fantasy gold mine. Jameis Winston went nuts in the 2nd half force feeding Nabers/Likely against the Commanders, but the first half was not so aggressive. If Tyler Shough and the Saints can actually play a strong first half and push the Giants out of their shell, I think we could get fireworks. If not, then Cam Skattebo is probably too cheap and too low owned.
There are a bevvy of intriguing RB plays who wont’ be *too* popular. Chuba Hubbard owns the Panthers backfield in a so-so matchup with the Eagles. Jaylen Warren will lose a little work with Rico Dowdle back, but he’s still the strong lead here in a matchup that’s really strong for his pass catching chops. Braelon Allen is not in a great spot, but he’s one of the biggest workhorses in the league. Tyler Allgeier is in a rough spot, but he should command this backfield. And D’Andre Swift faces a tough run defense, but the Bears are an elite run offense and there’s no Kyle Monangai. Almost all of these players can open up our builds in both DFS and draft games.
That’s before we get to Rhamodnre Stevenson. I expected Rhamondre to be atop my flag plant list in an exploitable matchup with Treveyon Henderson hurt, but it seems like Treveyon has a decent shot to play this week. If he doesn’t, Rhamondre is a nuclear level smash at these prices. But even if he does, my suspicion is that they do not expose Hendo to much work so quickly after a high ankle sprain. I think we get an ownership discount, but possibly not a workload change.
And I haven’t even mentioned Ashton Jeanty in a great spot and supposedly healthy (lol).
Wan’Dale Robinson draws one of the best matchups in the league as a slot receiver against the Colts. Jalen Coker is an a similar slot funnel spot at a nice cheap price. Your guess is as good as mine on Luther Burden and Rome Odunze, but Caleb Williams is back and the Falcons have been a pass funnel defense so far this year. And while I don’t love Tyler Huntley at QB for Zay Flowers, he’s a superstar who dominates man coverage and that’s the Browns defensive scheme.
You see how there are many more options away from the chalk this week than maybe meets the eye.
Flag Plants
Often times, a lot of touts, including myself, will give this lengthy list of all these different plays and options for a DFS slate. I get it, but at the end of the day I also think it’s important to specifically communicate your actual favorite plays. So, here’s a list of my actual flag plants for this week. I think they apply to pretty much every format and every site, with just the TE position in your draft games being a smidge different.
QB – Tanner McKee (DK only), Tyler Shough
RB – James Cook
WR – Drake London
TE – Brock Bowers
But if you did want to ask me about some of my other favorite tournament options (all positions), these would be those guys.
Additional Core
QB – Kirk Cousins, Caleb Williams
RB – Bijan Robinson, Ashton Jeanty
WR – Wan’Dale Robinson, Malik Nabers
TE – Dalton Kincaid
Let’s get it.
