Similar to what I wrote in the Betting Blueprint this week, the overall thoughts on Week Three was not too bad. Jets, Gibbs, Walker, 49ers, etc. all were great. But being far too high on the Panthers and not high enough on Jaylen Warren was a straight up burial. Week Four looks like an incredibly fun slate with some high profile smashes not generating a ton of ownership or excitement and some cheap options that make it all work.
Let’s dig in.
Slate Overview
This is probably the first slate of the year with significant injury impacts across the board. Sure, we have gotten Aaron Jones and Jaylen Warren types with backfield injuries, and a few others, but this feels a lot like a late season slate with so many injuries piling up. We have multiple backup QBs playing, superstar WRs missing and some backfields changing with starters out.
That is really going to condense DFS ownership, but also roster construction. You’ll see that below in the optimals and chalk section, but I think this is where our edge is in differentiating between all these “values”. For instance, you’ll see Dontayvion Wicks popping everywhere with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert out. But he’s going to see a boatload of Trent McDuffie, arguably the best corner in the league. He’s not overwhelmingly popular in DFS, but in this completely non-functional Eagles offense, these are the situations I think are best left to let them beat us. There are SO many strong WR plays, and plays across the board in general, deciphering between the good value and bad value is key.
And it’s still just Week Four, so there are a few situations where we can continue to be “simbusters”. I’ll hit on those below in more detail in Tournament Angles, but you see the spreadsheets start to catch up on some guys like Parker Washington, but not every player emerging or changing roles to kick off 2026. That’s to our advantage.
Optimals & Chalk
Like each week, I ran 50 lineups with no restrictions in RotoGrinders LineupHQ, which is where I like to start to get a gist for what is popping in “optimal lineups”. Here was the top projected lineup on DraftKings:
Across all the top optimals, there are a few interesting trends.
- With all the injuries creating “value”, Josh Allen is actually making the optimal.
- CMC is also in every optimal.
- But so are Chase Brown, Jordan Addison, Dontayvion Wicks and TJ Hockenson.
- No Braelon Allen, despite the absence of Breece Hall.
- No Ja’Marr Chase thanks to so many strong point per dollar WRs below him in salary.
I like to analyze these trends across “optimal lineups” to get a gist for not just who is going to be popular individually, but how people are generally going to construct their lineups.
There’s an incredibly clear direction the projections lead you this week. Soak up the value at WR and TE, occasionally sprinkle some upper echelon TEs like Bowers, Kittle and Kelce and jam CMC and Chase Brown given they are underpriced relative to their projection.
Josh Allen is popping here, but ownership also shows Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow at the top pretty much everywhere, so let’s not kid ourselves into thinking the Jags/Bengals game is overlooked.
There are other players projecting for strong ownership who aren’t necessarily showing in these “optimals”, but they tend to fit this same general roster construction (Aaron Jones, Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, Jeremiyah Love).
Tournament Angles
It wouldn’t be an article written by me if I didn’t start with something uncomfortable, and this week it’s going to be Braelon Allen and the Jets. Despite the pathetic Eagles performance last week, this is still a terrible Bears defense. Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor are still out, and now Breece Hall is out. After Breece Hall left the game last week, Braelon Allen played every RB snap and received every RB opportunity. I’m not here to pound the table that he’s a superstar. But the field is not treating him like the leader of a backfield who catches passes (3 targets last week), gets GL work and faces the worst run defense in the league. He is so cheap in DFS, he doesn’t even need a monster game to help you win tournaments, but he does have that ceiling. And in draft games, he’s not even being drafted as a potential workhorse (yes, Isaiah Davis will play) in a smash spot. Garrett Wilson is a great play in any format, full stop.
The Derrick Henry revenge narrative is both fun and also makes him the most likely player to score a TD in Week Four. But he’s extremely expensive in all formats, he still isn’t likely to catch many passes, and the Ravens offensive line issues are concerning in this matchup. They couldn’t run efficiently against the Cowboys, and the Titans run defense is above average. DT Jeffrey Simmons is going to cause havoc against a 4th string center. Henry is going to have a good game, of course, but my favorite angle to this game is Lamar Jackson and particularly Zay Flowers. Lamar’s wizardry shields him from the line issues a bit more, and the Titans pass defense is bottom 8 in the league in EPA/play. He is so efficient, and he’s running enough, that even if the Titans don’t push back enough, he can put up a big score, like he did in Week One. Zay is technically questionable, but he was a full practice Tue/Wed, and got a rest day Friday. It sounds like he’s a wheels up here, and with all of these shiny new toys at WR, plus the field finally loving our boy Parker Washington, Zay is a total afterthought. It’s a small sample, but his performance so far this year is as good as any player in fantasy football. If he runs even a reasonable amount of routes, he can post a monster score against this Titans defense. Can you imagine if the Titans actually push the Ravens? Sheesh.
I also want to make sure it is clear that I am not downplaying the Jags/Bengals game. That game rocks, and there will be fantasy points. Ja’Marr Chase is set up for an old fashioned Chase nuke, and it’s an equally good Tee Higgins spot, given the Jaguars tendency so far this season to give up explosive passing plays on defense. But even though Chase Brown has a strong role and is generally underpriced in DFS for that role, I much prefer the passing game here. Parker Washington and Trevor Lawrence are both significantly underpriced as well, and I’d classify this as “good chalk”. I want them in my draft game portfolio, and if there’s a lineup where they make sense in DFS, I’d happily play them. But they’re also some of the heaviest chalk of the slate, and I am actually quite intrigued by this spot for Bhayshul Tuten. Tuten continues to take more of the backfield each week, with Chris Rodriguez seeing just two touches in the first half last week before things got out of hand against the Pats. Tuten hasn’t popped for a big game yet, but under the hood, he looks to be ballin. He’s top 3 among NFL RBs in success rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. He’s also a freaky, top 1% athlete for an NFL RB who we know has the ability to break some long runs, they just haven’t come yet. And they might against a potentially fraudulent Bengals run defense that was just embarrassed by Jaylen Warren in Week Three.
You will never catch me slandering Josh Allen, especially with Christian Gonzalez and Barmore out for the Patriots defense. That also is a big boost for DJ Moore, who is my preferred stacking partner with Allen. But I am also very intrigued by James Cook here. Yes, Allen keeps stealing GL touchdowns, but Allen banged up his knee last week and did not run another QB sneak after. The Bills used Dawson Knox for that. And maybe it will just be Knox who vultures Cook instead, but I think Cook’s upside is greater both in the run game, via TD equity and as a receiver if Allen’s knee isn’t 100%. The Pats are not a dreamy matchup, but Cook and the Bills run game is so, so good that I am not sure it matters.
Without Justin Jefferson, it’s really just Jordan Addison for me on the Vikings. He’s popular, but understandably so. He had 9 targets on 29 Kyler pass attempts last week with Jefferson hurt after the first drive, and he’s very cheap in all formats. With his projected target share, he doesn’t need a ton of drop backs to post a tournament winning score against this terrible pass defense. And he won’t get a ton of drop backs because the only revenge stronger than Henry vs. the Titans is Vikings DC Brian Flores vs. his former employer.
Some other quick hitters:
The Broncos defense is still very good, so the 49ers are due some regression here efficiency wise. But Christian McCaffrey draws the most vulnerable part of their defense with a likely uptick in role given their WR injuries. I’m not fading him, nor am I fading George Kittle, who ran nearly every route last week and also gets a nice boost with the WR injuries. And a big reason why I’m not fading those guys is because the 49ers defense is in shambles via injury. Which makes Bo Nix a vomit inducing but super sneaky tournament option for me here. The Niners defense was just shredded by the Cardinals, and Nix has played some tough defenses to start the season that have contributed some to his poor play. He may just stink, but at his price and ownership, I’m very intrigued by Nix stacked with Jaylen Waddle this week as a super contrarian tournament play.
I don’t *love* the spot for Brock Bowers, but he is not appropriately priced in DFS. This is Klint Kubiak’s new version of JSN, and they’re going to be pushed big time to score against the Chiefs. Speaking of the Chiefs, Ken Walker is again one of the very top RB plays of the week, and Travis Kelce draws an awesome matchup with the Raiders linebackers and safeties who were just torched by Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant for not 1, not 2, not 3 but 4 touchdowns last week and 12 total catches.
I am going to repeat what I said last week in this spot. I don’t have anything to add about Jaxon Smith-Njigba that you haven’t already heard. He’s absurd, the role is absurd, and the matchup is absurd. If you can fit him, play him. They don’t even have Jadarian Price, so they might lean into the pass more and the Chargers are a bit more vulnerable to the pass than the run. I don’t think the Chargers can push them, but that hasn’t mattered for JSN.
The Packers game is going to be gross against Jalon Daniels. But they simply have no way of moving the ball, especially against an elite Bucs run defense, other than to throw. And when they throw, they only have 3 players to throw to in Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft. All 3 are playable, but this spot projects best for Watson. The Bucs blitz at the 3rd highest rate in the league, so with the Packers offensive line issues, the ball needs to come out pretty quick this week. With Matthew Golden a bit more of a high aDOT target, it’s Watson (& Kraft)’s ability to produce YAC on shorter targets that could lead to a nuclear game here. I don’t know if Jalon Daniels can push the Packers, but I don’t actually think it matters, at least for one offs of the 3 pass catchers.
The last spot I’m targeting with real purpose is the Bears. It sounds like Tyson Bagent is going to start, and he’s just $4.8k on DraftKings. I don’t know how good he is, but if Ben Johnson has this strong belief in Bagent, then I am going to trust him. I am not going to slander anyone playing Kalif Raymond at his price on DraftKings, but I think this is much more of a Luther Burden week. He’s just $5.2k on DraftKings, cheap in your draft games, and he’s fresh off 11 targets (& a carry) as the very clear focal point of the passing offense in a tough matchup with the Eagles. Some metrics show the Jets as more of a pass funnel, but I do think it’s very possible we see another D’Andre Swift explosion. The Jets played the Titans and Packers in the first two weeks, and neither team can run at all. Then, they played the high powered Lions, and they held up ok in pass defense, but they were beat up by Gibbs (& Vaki) both on the ground and as pass catchers. Swift is not Gibbs, but he’s a dollar store version of the archetype, and Ben Johnson can exploit these weaknesses. I do think Kyle Monangai is likely to play more than last week with another week to get healthier, but it’s definitely more of Swift’s backfield.
Flag Plants
Often times, a lot of touts, including myself, will give this lengthy list of all these different plays and options for a DFS slate. I get it, but at the end of the day I also think it’s important to specifically communicate your actual favorite plays. So, here’s a list of my actual flag plants for this week. I think they apply to pretty much every format and every site, with just the TE position in your draft games being a smidge different.
QB – Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson
RB – Braelon Allen
WR – Zay Flowers, Christian Watson
TE – Travis Kelce
But if you did want to ask me about some of my other favorite tournament options (all positions), these would be those guys.
Additional Core
QB – Bo Nix, Tyson Bagent (DK specific)
RB – James Cook, Bhayshul Tuten
WR – Luther Burden, Ja’Marr Chase
TE – Tucker Kraft, George Kittle
Let’s get it.
