Season-to-date Recap
A fun season comes to an end today with the Super Bowl, and we’ll see if we can top off a profitable year here. We currently sit up 10.5 units on the year, and while it certainly could have been a better year, I feel pretty solid about the process overall. Let’s have some fun in the Super Bowl and finish on a high note, eh?
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Week 6:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.2 units)
- Props
- 2-17 (-9.51 units)
- Total
- 4-19 (-9.71 units)
Week 7:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 4-4 (+1.35 units)
- Total
- 7-4 (+5.35units)
Week 8:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.1 units)
- Props
- 9-3 (+5.4975 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+4.3975 units)
Week 9:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.4 units)
- Props
- 10-6 (+5.85 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+5.45 units)
Week 10:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (+0.76 units)
- Props
- 1-9 (-4.24 units)
- Total
- 3-11 (-3.48 units)
Week 11:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-2-1 (-2.24 units)
- Props
- 4-3 (+1.05 units)
- Total
- 4-5-1 (-1.19 units)
Week 12:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-1 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 3-4 (-0.36 units)
- Total
- 7-5 (+3.64 units)
Week 13:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-3 (-3.25 units)
- Props
- 5-11 (-3.15 units)
- Total
- 5-14 (-6.4 units)
Week 14:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (+0.3 units)
- Props
- 2-4 (-3.75 units)
- Total
- 4-6 (-3.45 units)
Week 15:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+3.02 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (+1.00 units)
- Total
- 8-6 (+4.02 units)
Week 16:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-1 (+0.95 units)
- Props
- 6-1 (+4.9 units)
- Total
- 8-2 (+5.85 units)
Week 17:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.13 units)
- Props
- 3-8 (-8.27 units)
- Total
- 5-10 (-8.40 units)
Wild Card Weekend:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-1-1 (-1.1 units)
- Props
- 11-15 (+2.7925 units)
- Total
- 11-16-1 (+1.6925 units)
Divisional Round:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-1 (-0.18 units)
- Props
- 3-6 (-3.75 units)
- Total
- 4-7 (-3.93 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 40-38-2 (+5.53 units)
- Props
- 96-112 (+4.9725 units)
- Total
- 136-150-2 (+10.5025 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Always make sure to check back before the games each weekend, especially in the prop section, as we will occasionally get some late additions due to injury news, new props, etc. Every time we make an update, we will send out a notification in discord. There are also other incredibly sharp bettors in there posting their favorite plays every week! If you have a premium subscription, but you aren’t currently in the discord, just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord”.
Super Bowl Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE/SEA | Seahawks -4.5 | -105 | MGM | 1 | Come on, we have to at least take a side in the Super Bowl. The Patriots are clearly a very good team, but I think it's rather difficult to determine what degree of "good" they are. I'm not sure there has been an easier path to a SB, both in the regular season and in the playoffs, than this Pats team has had. Meanwhile, Seattle had to power through the best division in football and beat both of those divisional opponents again in the playoffs. They have arguably the best defense in the league, and I think we've reached the point where the offense is super underrated. They are tied with the Patriots for 7th in offense in EPA/play, and they have been elite in these playoffs with two dominant performances against the Rams and Niners. |
Super Bowl Props (& Pick Em)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE/SEA | Rhamondre Stevenson u49.5 rushing yards | -105 | 365 | 1 | Rhamondre has been great for the Pats, but this is the worst matchup in all of football for runners. Seattle is tops in the league in run defense by a WIDE margin. I expect TreVeyon Henderson to get a little more work than we saw in the weird weather conference championship game, and Rhamondre has seen overall elevated rush attempt totals due to game script throughout the playoffs. |
| 2 | NE/SEA | Pop Douglas o8.5 receiving yards | -120 | Hard Rock | 1 | Pop has been only a bit player in this offense, but he has actually gone over this number 12 total times this season. In a game where I expect the Pats to need to pass to have offensive success, I think we see a little bit more Pop than usual, and he might be needed over the middle of the field against such a stout Seahawks defense, especially if the Pats are trailing. |
| 3 | NE/SEA | Pop Douglas 15+ receiving yards | 130 | FD | 0.5 | Pop ladder. |
| 4 | NE/SEA | Pop Douglas 20+ receiving yards | 196 | FD | 0.25 | Pop ladder. |
| 5 | NE/SEA | Pop Douglas 25+ receiving yards | 265 | FD | 0.25 | Pop ladder. |
| 6 | NE/SEA | Pop Douglas 30+ receiving yards | 375 | FD | 0.25 | Pop ladder. |
| 7 | NE/SEA | Pop Douglas 40+ receiving yards | 625 | 365 | 0.25 | Pop ladder. |
| 8 | NE/SEA | Mack Hollins o24.5 receiving yards | -110 | FD | 1 | Mack is an exceptionally important player for the Pats, as he provides a big bodied field stretcher on the outside for their passing game and an elite blocker for their run game. He went over this number in 10 games this year, and that's even with being more of a part time player for the first two months of the season. |
| 9 | NE/SEA | Mack Hollins 30+ receiving yards | 126 | FD | 0.5 | Mack ladder. |
| 10 | NE/SEA | Mack Hollins 40+ receiving yards | 220 | FD | 0.25 | Mack ladder. |
| 11 | NE/SEA | Mack Hollins 50+ receiving yards | 350 | FD | 0.25 | Mack ladder. |
| 12 | NE/SEA | Mack Hollins 60+ receiving yards | 540 | FD | 0.25 | Mack ladder. |
| 13 | NE/SEA | Stefon Diggs u17.5 longest reception | -125 | FD | 2 | Diggs has become a low aDOT, move the chains type safety valve for the Pats offense. He's gone under this number in all 3 playoff games, and his aDOT dipped from 8.7 to 5.5 since the regular season. The Pats will rotate their WRs enough to keep his overall opportunity in check, and he should continue to be used in this short passing role. |
| 14 | NE/SEA | Kenneth Walker o2.5 receptions | -128 | FD | 1 | George Holani picked up work in the absence of Zach Charbonnet, but Walker's overall receiving role has still been there. He has 7 catches on 7 targets in 2 playoff games, and I tend to believe teams lean just a bit more on their guys in games like this, which could slide just a little more work to Walker, whether that be in the screen game or a little designed work to get him in the open field. |
| 15 | NE/SEA | George Holani u10.5 rushing yards | -110 | DK | 1 | Holani picked up a little work without Charbs, but it was primarily on passing downs / long down and distance. He had 4 targets and 3 rushes, and I expect Walker to continue to take nearly all the rushing work here given the importance of the stage. |
