Every week I update our Playoff Best Ball rankings here based upon the latest information, like game results, injuries, playoff odds changes and more. But there are a variety of element, or even just “takes”, that you can’t fully translate into rankings, or at least not as much as you might hope.
Plus, in Playoff Best Ball especially, each little pocket of time is so unique. Who we want to draft this week, which teams we want to pair together and the ADPs we can get on certain players is going to be wildly different from a different week. I also think our takes *should* change week to week as we gather more information, especially this year. Getting out ahead of new playoff possibilities is exactly how we can build super teams in this format that teams drafter later cannot get.
So I want to start this update article each week with some general thoughts about not just basic musings but specific tactics I’m deploying in drafts given the latest info we have gathered from that week of NFL games.
We had some semi-shocking results with the Colts, Ravens, Chiefs and Eagles all going down in Week 14, plus a major injury, so let’s get to what that means.
2026 Playoffs = Utter Chaos
Things are starting to crystalize a bit more after a chaotic Week 15. The Chiefs are officially out, the Lions are hanging on by a thread, and the Ravens are still pretty sizable dogs. The Bucs got lucky with a Panthers loss to the Saints, and the Packers suffered a devastating defensive injury in a loss. Combine all that with the fact the two bye teams are becoming closer to a certainty, and we are getting a clearer picture of the bracket, though the race to the Super Bowl is still anyone’s game.
We built our own custom playoff model, and while it’s similar to most other playoff odds models out there, we instituted some tweaks to account for injuries and current form which, when paired with future schedule, give our odds a little different outlook than some others places, which can be particularly advantageous for these playoff best ball contests.
What I really want to touch on here heading into Week 16 is a bit more of a psychological thing. This is the first year in a long time where there’s a real shakeup in our playoff expectations, and I think that’s really exploitable.
We’ve been drafting the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills and even Lions for multiple seasons as favorites to make a run to the Super Bowl. If you ask 10 people to rank the top teams in the NFL this year, you’re going to get 10 different answers. That has led to some opportunities each week to shift our strategy and team targets to take advantage of the fact our opponents are slower to buy in on teams like the Texans and slower to jump off teams like the Chiefs and Lions.
Heck, even I was too slow to jump off the Chiefs and the Ravens. It’s natural, but if we can shake our priors that didn’t pan out, we can really build super teams with these emerging teams and the actual favorites that also have more than enough fantasy juice to score big points along the way and advance some lower owned teams to the finals no matter what the eventual Super Bowl matchup ends up being.
Overvalued Teams & Current Fades
Green Bay Packers – What a difference a week makes! Undervalued last week, the Packers suffered devastating injuries in Week 15. Micah Parsons is a huge deal to their outlook, and Christian Watson is banged up again after already losing Tucker Kraft for the season. I don’t think the field adjusts well enough for injuries like Parsons because he’s a defensive player, and this team was already a bit murky in terms of fantasy production from the skill players outside of Josh Jacobs.
Seattle Seahawks – The defense is strong and JSN is a fantasy star, but this team simply doesn’t inspire any real confidence of a playoff run or major fantasy production outside of JSN. The AFC feels pretty wide open, but the NFC a bit more top heavy (Rams & Eagles), and I don’t consider the Seahawks to be a part of the “top”.
Detroit Lions – The Lions are not as overvalued as past weeks after their loss to the Rams, but the fact still remains that they are massive dogs to even make the playoffs. Trust me, I understand it’s tempting to take shots on the fantasy juice of their skill players if they were to somehow sneak in, but the injuries to their defense are a serious problem for their ability to do that and win playoff games if they somehow find a way in.
Undervalued Teams & Current Targets
Denver Broncos – I really don’t want to keep mentioning the Broncos here, but I also don’t want to exclude them just because it’s “boring” to list them every week. The fact of the matter is that they’re nearly locked into the bye in the AFC, which is a huge advantage given the state of the conference as a whole. No Chiefs, Ravens are in trouble and their home field advantage is a bit bigger than others given the elevation. It’s also a really nice perk to know in your draft that they are going to get the bye so you can plan accordingly.
Philadelphia Eagles – The field is catching on to our Texans, and the Packers just lost Micah Parsons (and maybe Christian Watson) to injury. Meanwhile, the Eagles have been so boring that the field is really underrating them. I am equally as concerned as everyone else about their lackluster offensive play in the regular season, but they also showed plenty of lackluster tendencies last year… and they won the Super Bowl. They can easily run through this year’s NFC, and it’s not nothing that Davante Adams continues to deal with this hamstring issue for the Rams.
Jacksonville Jaguars – I wouldn’t say that I’m bullish on their Super Bowl hopes, but the Jags are an awesome team to use as a way to advance teams. They’re locked into the playoffs (likely with a home game), and the offense is coming along nicely to close the year. They have strong options at every position that can provide production to help get our Rams, Broncos or even Bills (given their lack of production outside of Allen/Cook) through the early rounds. They also could simply make a run in a wide open AFC!
Note: If you see our Playoff Best Ball Rankings, you will notice the Rams are still clearly a (the?) top priority for us. They are by far our top team to draft in the NFC, but I wouldn’t classify them as “undervalued” necessarily even though that might technically be true.
*If another team is not listed in either category, you can consider them “neutral” for purposes of drafting. They are not fades, but also not the highest priority target at this moment. That can change each week!
