Weird week on the best ball and overall fantasy calendar, so the recap and updated accounting will be posted a little later in order to get these picks out.
Let’s get to the goodies.
Week 15 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV/PHI | Under 38.5 | -110 | FD | 1 | The Raiders woeful offense is unlikely, even with a new QB, to put up points on a really strong Eagles defense, which means we know what the Eagles are going to do on offense. They are going to run, run, run and play ball control, which is going to keep the clock moving and the scoreboard light on points. |
| 2 | LAC/KC | Under 41.5 | -108 | DK | 1 | Certainly feels weird to love a Chiefs/Chargers under at such a low number, but here we are. The key here is that both of these offensive lines are decimated by injury. On a freezing cold day with two solid defenses, the lack of OL play is going to lead to a slog of a game. |
| 3 | GB/DEN | Broncos ML | 102 | DK | 1 | Two pretty evenly matched teams here (for me), but the market is not a believer in the Broncos. The offense can certainly be untrustworthy, but their homefield advantage is real in Denver and we are getting a good price as a home dog. |
Week 15 Props (& Pick Em)
| Props | Game | Prop | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL/CIN | Isaiah Likely o36.5 | -118 | MGM | 1 | The Bengals are the worst defense we've ever seen against the tight end position, and Likely is coming on strong down the stretch for the Ravens with his highest target totals of the year in the last two games, including a 5/95 game against this Bengals defense. |
| 2 | BAL/CIN | Isaiah Likely 40+ receiving yards | -105 | DK | 1 | Likely ladder. |
| 3 | BAL/CIN | Isaiah Likely 50+ receiving yards | 165 | 365 | 0.5 | Likely ladder. |
| 4 | BAL/CIN | Isaiah Likely 60+ receiving yards | 265 | 365 | 0.25 | Likely ladder. |
| 5 | BAL/CIN | Isaiah Likely 70+ receiving yards | 400 | 365 | 0.25 | Likely ladder. |
| 6 | BAL/CIN | Mitchell Tinsley o28.5 receiving yards | -111 | DK | 1 | Last game Tee Higgisn missed, which was against this Ravens defense, Tinsley racked up 9 targets, finishing 2nd on the team behind Ja'Marr Chase. He had countless near misses on big plays, and we are getting a number just a tick higher than that game. |
| 7 | WAS/NYG | Terry McLaurin o58.5 receiving yards | -108 | Caesars | 1 | Last week was a bit of a throw away for the Washington offense (41 yards for Terry), but McLaurin burst back onto the scene in his return against s tough Broncos defense with 14 targets and 96 yards 2 weeks ago. His QB was Marcus Mariota in that game, and those two should be able to take advantage of a poor Giants secondary that turned into a much heavier blitzing team under their new defensive coordinator, with Terry as the first read against the blitz for this Washington team. |
| 8 | LAC/KC | Kimani Vidal o4.5 receiving yards | -105 | Caesars | 1 | Hampton will continue to eat into Vidal's overall workload, but Vidal outsnapped him heavily last week including taking essentially the entire passing down role. That makes logical sense for Hampton to be slower to work his way back there, and I expect that to continue with this number being way too low for Vidal in that role. |
| 9 | DET/LAR | Matthew Stafford o281.5 passing yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | The Lions continue to be a pass funnel with their elite run defense + injury ravaged secondary, and Stafford has been one of the best passers in the league. He + McVay should be able to torch this secondary with Puka/Davante. |
| 10 | GB/DEN | Troy Franklin o31.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | No Pat Bryant for the Broncos this week, so Franklin should see a nice boost in ooportunity. Marvin Mims and the ancillary weapons should see an increased role, but Franklin had been the most impacted in recent weeks by Bryant's emergence, and he should return to a closer to full time role this week. |
| 11 | CLE/CHI | Quinshon Judkins o1.5 receptions | -110 | 365 | 1 | No Dylan Sampson or Jerome Ford this week for the Browns, so Judkins should see a receiving game boost. Those 2 backs dominated the pass game usage, but Judkins is a capable receiver, and the Browns are more likely to be trailing here. |
