Week 13 & Season-to-date Recap
Week 13 didn’t go particularly well, but oddly enough it felt like a really strong week in terms of reads. RJ Harvey led the Broncos backfield but averaged just 2.7 YPC in a strong spot. Mitchell Tinsley had 9 targets. Keaton Mitchell averaged 9.5 YPC but got scripted out in a shocking blowout loss. It’s a fine line between cope and understanding some bad variance, but Week 13 felt ultimately like the latter.
Thankfully, we still sit +14.7 units on the year, and we’ve got a big spot to attack with the Cowboys/Lions game on Thursday Night in Week 14.
Week 1:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-7 (-3.55 units)
- Props
- 16-10 (+8.06 units)
- Total
- 19-17 (+4.51 units)
Week 2:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-3 (+0.70 units)
- Props
- 11-2 (+7.905 units)
- Total
- 15-5 (+8.605 units)
Week 3:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-3 (-1.45 units)
- Props
- 5-6 (-2.16 units)
- Total
- 7-9 (-3.61 units)
Week 4:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-1.2 units)
- Props
- 2-3 (-2.25 units)
- Total
- 4-5 (-3.45 units)
Week 5:
- Sides & Totals
- 5-2 (+6.6 units)
- Props
- 4-0 (+4.0 units)
- Total
- 9-2 (+10.6 units)
Week 6:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.2 units)
- Props
- 2-17 (-9.51 units)
- Total
- 4-19 (-9.71 units)
Week 7:
- Sides & Totals
- 3-0 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 4-4 (+1.35 units)
- Total
- 7-4 (+5.35units)
Week 8:
- Sides & Totals
- 1-2 (-1.1 units)
- Props
- 9-3 (+5.4975 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+4.3975 units)
Week 9:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (-0.4 units)
- Props
- 10-6 (+5.85 units)
- Total
- 10-5 (+5.45 units)
Week 10:
- Sides & Totals
- 2-2 (+0.76 units)
- Props
- 1-9 (-4.24 units)
- Total
- 3-11 (-3.48 units)
Week 11:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-2-1 (-2.24 units)
- Props
- 4-3 (+1.05 units)
- Total
- 4-5-1 (-1.19 units)
Week 12:
- Sides & Totals
- 4-1 (+4.0 units)
- Props
- 3-4 (-0.36 units)
- Total
- 7-5 (+3.64 units)
Week 13:
- Sides & Totals
- 0-3 (-3.25 units)
- Props
- 5-11 (-3.15 units)
- Total
- 5-14 (-6.4 units)
Season to date:
- Sides & Totals
- 30-31-1 (+2.67 units)
- Props
- 66-72 (+12.0425 units)
- Total
- 96-103-1 (+14.7125 units)
Quick Housekeeping
Make sure to check back later in the week for updates, especially in the prop section, as those do not generally come out until later in the week, at least the full menu. Every time we make an update, we will send out a post on twitter, as well as a notification in discord. If you are reading this, don’t worry, you have access to the premium discord! Just go to your account page here on the site and click “connect to discord” if you’re not already in there.
Week 14 Bets (Sides, Totals, Etc.)
| Bets | Game | Wager | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL/DET | Cowboys +3 | 100 | MGM | 1 | Two teams headed in opposite directions. The Cowboys are playing like one of the best teams in the league, while the Lions have been totally ravaged by injuries to both sides of the ball. |
| 2 | DAL/DET | Cowboys ML | 145 | DK | 0.5 | Two teams headed in opposite directions. The Cowboys are playing like one of the best teams in the league, while the Lions have been totally ravaged by injuries to both sides of the ball. |
| 3 | HOU/KC | Texans +3.5 | -114 | Caesars | 1 | The Chiefs suffered devastating offensive line injuries this past week, and that's a recipe for disaster against the best defense in the NFL. |
| 4 | HOU/KC | Texans ML | 160 | DK | 0.5 | The Chiefs suffered devastating offensive line injuries this past week, and that's a recipe for disaster against the best defense in the NFL. |
Week 14 Props (& Pick Em)
Make sure to check back on Sunday mornings, or follow our updates in Discord for any new props on Sunday morning or over the weekend.
| Props | Game | Prop | Odds | Book | Units | Notes: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL/DET | George Pickens o80.5 receiving yards | -115 | MGM | 1 | Pickens has emerged as a co-alpha with CeeDee, but he's particularly effective against man coverage, which the Lions run at the 2nd highest rate in the league, alognside being a pass funnel. |
| 2 | TEN/CLE | Tony Pollard u50.5 rushing yards | -125 | Fanatics | 2 | Pollard has topped out at 11 carries and 60 yards dating all the way back to Week 5. Tyjae Spears is back and stealing a chunk of the backfield, and the Titans run game is hopeless. Insert the Browns elite run defense, and it's going to be a rough one for Pollard. |
| 3 | CHI/GB | Luther Burden o39.5 receiving yards | -110 | FD | 1 | Rome Odunze is out, and the Packers defensive front should put up a bit more of a fight than recent Bears opponents, pushing them to the air a bit more frequently. Burden has also emerged in recent weeks as full-ish time WR, and will be needed to produce here in the absence of Odunze. |
| 4 | CHI/GB | DJ Moore o37.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | DJ Moore isn't going to generate the hype of a Burden, but he projects well over this number here without Rome. |
| 5 | NO/TB | Devaughn Vele o34.5 receiving yards | -110 | 365 | 1 | Vele has 15 targets over the last two weeks while playing 88% of snaps, emerging as a real secondary option to Chris Olave for the Saints. He should continue to see heavy volume against a Bucs pass funnel defense. |
| 6 | NO/TB | Mason Tipton o2.5 receptions | 155 | 365 | 1 | Tipton played 85% of snaps last week, as he is now a full time WR for the Saints sans Brandin Cooks. He has 4 targets and 3 catches in back to back games, and we are getting a nice number on his continued involvement this week. |
