Every week I update our Playoff Best Ball rankings here based upon the latest information, like game results, injuries, playoff odds changes and more. But there are a variety of element, or even just “takes”, that you can’t fully translate into rankings, or at least not as much as you might hope.
Plus, in Playoff Best Ball especially, each little pocket of time is so unique. Who we want to draft this week, which teams we want to pair together and the ADPs we can get on certain players is going to be wildly different from a different week. I also think our takes *should* change week to week as we gather more information, especially this year. Getting out ahead of new playoff possibilities is exactly how we can build super teams in this format that teams drafter later cannot get.
So I want to start this update article each week with some general thoughts about not just basic musings but specific tactics I’m deploying in drafts given the latest info we have gathered from that week of NFL games.
Week 13 was pure chaos, and it shook up the playoff picture in a big way. So let’s get to it.
2026 Playoffs = Utter Chaos
Maybe (probably?) I am just a fool, but I had been sort of expecting the cream to rise to the top as the season went on, meaning the traditional playoff teams we have gotten used to for a while now. The Chiefs run to snag a wild card spot felt inevitable. The Ravens figuring it out after getting healthy felt the same. The Lions injuries would theoretically clear up, especially on defense. But the opposite has happened.
We built our own custom playoff model, and while it’s similar to most other playoff odds models out there, we instituted some tweaks to account for injuries and current form which, when paired with future schedule, give our odds a little different outlook than some others places, which can be particularly advantageous for these playoff best ball contests.
The Lions and Chiefs are both sizable dogs to make the playoffs, which is really important because our opponents are basically not considering that possibility. The top options from each of those teams are being drafted in every draft. And it’s not to say that’s unreasonable because these odds can change with a big win this week by each of those teams and some good luck, plus guys like Gibbs, Rashee, etc score big fantasy points.
But there is a TON to gain by getting out ahead of the situation in which our opponents are repeatedly drafting players from team who don’t make the playoffs, giving us both a better opportunity to advance our teams while building stronger and more unique teams for a possible run at the top prize in the finals.
That’s the crux of my strategy at this exact moment. There are some falling teams with star power and big names that are possibly (likely?) being over-drafted. Not only are these real life teams probably a bit overrated, but they also present extreme risk of flat out missing the playoffs. In turn, that means there are some other teams that have to be under-drafted/undervalued. Getting out ahead of these trends could be a huge difference maker on both Underdog and DraftKings, but especially DK where their main tournament is already open and has a large final with a $1 Million Top Prize.
Overvalued Teams & Current Fades
Kansas City Chiefs – Boy, this feels weird! But that’s sort of the trend across the NFL right now, particularly in the AFC. The teams we have always thought to be the clear favorites and Super Bowl contenders are not really holding up their end of the bargain. The Chiefs are in serious trouble just to get in the playoffs, with this Week 14 game against a surging Texans team being about as much of a must win as you can get.
Los Angeles Chargers – The Chargers are still a favorite to make the playoffs as a Wild Card, but things look pretty bleak. Their offensive line is simply not good enough to be a true contender even if they get in, the defense is ~ average and Justin Herbert just had to have surgery on his hand.
Indianapolis Colts – Similar to the Chargers, the Colts *should* still get in the playoffs with winnable games the rest of the way, but the team quality is not trending up. Daniel Jones is playing through a fractured fibula, and newly acquired Sauce Gardner was injured in their Week 13 game.
Detroit Lions – It’s sad, but injuries have destroyed this Lions season. The defensive backfield has (again) been completely ravaged, Amon-Ra St. Brown is now hurt and even Frank Ragnow couldn’t come out of retirement to boost their offensive line due to injury. It’s going to get extremely bleak if they can’t beat the Cowboys this Thursday.
Undervalued Teams & Current Targets
Denver Broncos – Trust me, I get it. Nothing about this offense inspires confidence, and they keep squeaking out close wins. But the defense is elite, they have strong weapons on offense, and they are a favorite to get the bye. Despite that, they are basically free in drafts.
Houston Texans – A somewhat similar case to the Broncos, except they are still fighting for a playoff spot. The play a huge game against KC this week which could make this look foolish, but CJ Stroud is back, and that defense is the best unit in the entire league. They can steal games with their defense and Nico Collins in a wide open AFC, and they’re currently un-drafted in most drafts.
Green Bay Packers – I am giving the Packers the nod here over the Bears, but they play two times in the next three weeks, so this could certainly change. Jordan Love is playing outstanding football, and their weapons are getting healthy (Christian Watson emergence!). Pair that with their elite defensive front, and they can beat anyone in the NFC.
Dallas Cowboys – Ok, this is my total shot in the dark. Call me an idiot when they lose on Thursday, but I think the Cowboys are a MUCH better team than they have been all season. They have arguably the best offensive in the entire NFL, and the defense is not the same punching bag from early in the season thanks to key deadline additions and the return to health of key contributors. Their schedule after the Lions game is extremely advantageous, and no one in the NFC would want to play them if they do get in.
Note: If you see our Playoff Best Ball Rankings, you will notice the Rams are clearly a priority. They are by far our top team to draft in the NFC, but I wouldn’t classify them as “undervalued”.
*If another team is not listed in either category, you can consider them “neutral” for purposes of drafting. They are not fades, but also not the highest priority target at this moment. That can change each week!
